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Message
Going to be tough for GOP to hold onto the Senate in November
Posted on 3/4/20 at 10:58 am
Posted on 3/4/20 at 10:58 am
We're starting out with 53 senators....
-Lose Gardner (CO), but gain back the AL senate seat, so that's a wash.
- AZ is looking like it will flip to Dems as McSally sucks and Kelly is popular
- Coin flip races for GOP incumbents in NC, ME,and MT (if Bullock runs).
- Only potential GOP pickup over a Dem incumbent is James in Michigan (probably 1/3 chance here).
Then in 2022, assuming Trump wins in 2020, we are at high risk of losing the WI and PA senate seats that will be in contest given that that's a midterm. This has huge implications for Trump's ability to reshape the judiciairy.
Biden running versus Bernie will help the Dems significantly in the down ballot races for House and Senate.
-Lose Gardner (CO), but gain back the AL senate seat, so that's a wash.
- AZ is looking like it will flip to Dems as McSally sucks and Kelly is popular
- Coin flip races for GOP incumbents in NC, ME,and MT (if Bullock runs).
- Only potential GOP pickup over a Dem incumbent is James in Michigan (probably 1/3 chance here).
Then in 2022, assuming Trump wins in 2020, we are at high risk of losing the WI and PA senate seats that will be in contest given that that's a midterm. This has huge implications for Trump's ability to reshape the judiciairy.
Biden running versus Bernie will help the Dems significantly in the down ballot races for House and Senate.
This post was edited on 3/4/20 at 11:01 am
19
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:00 am to GeneralLee
I expect enthusiasm to hurt the dems this year.
Biden isn’t going to excite anyone, and the far left hate Biden almost as much as Trump.
Biden isn’t going to excite anyone, and the far left hate Biden almost as much as Trump.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:02 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:I wouldn't be counting on that...voter turnout was bigly up last night - something no one is really talking about
I expect enthusiasm to hurt the dems this year.
Biden isn’t going to excite anyone, and the far left hate Biden almost as much as Trump.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:05 am to GeneralLee
I’ve always had 52-48
Trump will carry Tillis. Collins is doing what she needs to win and she will squeak out.
Dems are taking AZ. No trump bump will help McSally she is legit terrible.
Trump will carry Tillis. Collins is doing what she needs to win and she will squeak out.
Dems are taking AZ. No trump bump will help McSally she is legit terrible.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:05 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
I expect enthusiasm to hurt the dems this year.
Biden isn’t going to excite anyone, and the far left hate Biden almost as much as Trump.
You underestimate the power of Trump hate. There is a huge movement on the democratic side to get Trump out whatever the cost.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:05 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
Biden isn’t going to excite anyone
Hopefully Democrats will listen to Biden and go to the polls on Super Thursday.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:07 am to GeneralLee
Why are you completely ignoring Alabama?
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:07 am to Magician2
quote:
Trump will carry Tillis. Collins is doing what she needs to win and she will squeak out.
Dems are taking AZ. No trump bump will help McSally she is legit terrible.
Add MT to that (potentially), then you're at 51-49 and with three cucks still (Collins, Murkowski, Romney) in the Senate to really limit judicial nominees.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:07 am to Magician2
quote:
No trump bump will help McSally she is legit terrible.
No , Arizona is terrible.
Those morons voted in McCain and Flake.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:07 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Why are you completely ignoring Alabama?
First part of my post was saying CO and AL wash out.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:08 am to KingwoodLsuFan
quote:
You underestimate the power of Trump hate. There is a huge movement on the democratic side to get Trump out whatever the cost.
I agree.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:08 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
Biden isn’t going to excite anyone, and the far left hate Biden almost as much as Trump.
You guys are going to be in for a rude awakening this fall
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:10 am to GeneralLee
Well, you haven't been correct on anything yet so that is a good sign.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:11 am to GeneralLee
Its going to be tough to hold the Senate and its going to be tough to win the Presidency
We have been infested for years and those people have been spilling over all over the place
This is really the last chance to get the rest of the court situation resolved for a good long period of time
Everyone is going to have to come out this year in a big way and libertarians are going to have to get in line
We have been infested for years and those people have been spilling over all over the place
This is really the last chance to get the rest of the court situation resolved for a good long period of time
Everyone is going to have to come out this year in a big way and libertarians are going to have to get in line
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:11 am to DallasTiger11
Dude, what the hell?
When sanders was doing well 2 weeks ago, you are saying he was biggest threat to trump
Now you are saying biden is biggest threat. What the frick is up with your negativity?
When sanders was doing well 2 weeks ago, you are saying he was biggest threat to trump
Now you are saying biden is biggest threat. What the frick is up with your negativity?
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:12 am to GeneralLee
-
This only happens if Trump loses MT, NC, AZ, and ME, no one who pulls the lever for him is going to vote Dem down ballot.
quote:
Lose Gardner (CO), but gain back the AL senate seat, so that's a wash.
- AZ is looking like it will flip to Dems as McSally sucks and Kelly is popular
- Coin flip races for GOP incumbents in NC, ME,and MT (if Bullock runs).
- Only potential GOP pickup over a Dem incumbent is James in Michigan (probably 1/3 chance here).
This only happens if Trump loses MT, NC, AZ, and ME, no one who pulls the lever for him is going to vote Dem down ballot.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:12 am to 93and99
And to think Arizona at one time had Barry Goldwater and Paul Fannin, two old right conservatives who actually believed in limited government.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:13 am to Yak
If you look at the Trump rallies with thousands of people at each site that didn't vote in 2016 and with 25-30% of the people registered dems... there will be a massive GOP turnout. Biden will make a 1,000 gaffes between now and November. Trump will eat him alive in the debates. Not to mention investigations into the corrupt Biden shakedowns are just beginning.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:16 am to Goforit
quote:The thing is, none of this matters. Voter turnout is a real thing. It's damn near 2008 level in many states already.
If you look at the Trump rallies with thousands of people at each site that didn't vote in 2016 and with 25-30% of the people registered dems... there will be a massive GOP turnout. Biden will make a 1,000 gaffes between now and November. Trump will eat him alive in the debates. Not to mention investigations into the corrupt Biden shakedowns are just beginning.
I don't think you understand how polarizing Trump is (even for all that he has done)
This post was edited on 3/4/20 at 11:18 am
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:18 am to Goforit
I give it a 50/50 chance that Biden is even alive or cognitively functional by November.
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