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Message
Dems’ lead on generic ballot shrinks to 3 points: Politico/Morning Consult poll 11/5/2018
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:32 am
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:32 am
quote:
The Democrats' lead over Republicans among registered voters on a generic ballot has shrunk to 3 points ahead of Tuesday's midterms, according to a new poll.
The Politico/Morning Consult poll published Monday found that 43 percent of registered voters prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 40 percent who prefer the Republican. Another 18 percent of registered voters are undecided, according to the poll.
LINK
11
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:33 am to NC_Tigah
I don't want to get ahead of it but CAN YOU FEEL IT COMING? muh polls will be wrong.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:34 am to cajunangelle
No less than 50 but no greater than 2/3rds of Indy’s voting for Trump
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:35 am to cajunangelle
Current odds on Bovada for a Republican majority in the House are +200. Get rich kids.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:42 am to PhilemonThomas
I think it was +250 just a couple of days ago. Could be wrong
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:50 am to Choctaw
I believe I read somewhere independents vote their pocketbooks.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:52 am to PhilemonThomas
quote:
Current odds on Bovada for a Republican majority in the House are +200. Get rich kids.
This is good for republicans, yes? I don't gamble so I don't really understand the +/- numbers.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:52 am to da prophet
I'm thinking Ted Cruz wins with double points. 
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:54 am to Janky
quote:think that means $100 bet wins you $200
This is good for republicans, yes? I don't gamble so I don't really understand the +/- numbers.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:54 am to Janky
It means were about a 4 point underdog if this were an NFL game
Nate Silver has us as more of a 10.5 point underdog
Nate Silver has us as more of a 10.5 point underdog
This post was edited on 11/5/18 at 8:55 am
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:55 am to NC_Tigah
That's skewed by areas where the Dem wins 80% or more of the vote.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:58 am to Jake88
And those votes are effectively wasted.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 9:01 am to NC_Tigah
Posted on 11/5/18 at 9:11 am to Jake88
quote:
That's skewed by areas where the Dem wins 80% or more of the vote.
From the OP link:
quote:
The new Politico/Morning Consult poll's results are based on surveys with 1,961 registered voters. They have a margin of error of 2 percentage points
So with 435 house seats, they can't be polling per district (< 5 polled per district). So this would be like the popular vote versus the electoral college.
I'd love to see them limit polling to the swing districts - that would tell us more.
[ BTW, my first post here - I've been lurking after finding some great political discussion here from a google search a few weeks ago - I can't even tell you how upset I am with the main stream media - MAGA!]
This post was edited on 11/5/18 at 9:15 am
Posted on 11/5/18 at 9:13 am to narddogg81
quote:
think that means $100 bet wins you $200
That's what it means. It also means that the Republicans are underdogs to win the House.
By contrast the Dems are a favorite at -300. Meaning you have to bet $300 to win $100 or $100 bet wins $33.33.
Based on a few things, including talking to several people that were big time Dems up until recently, I think that the books are wrong and the Republicans have a much better chance of keeping the House than the +200 odds represent.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 9:16 am to MidWestGuy
quote:Fox news has a new system (because 2016 was so wrong) of going State by state. Don't know if it will work.
I'd love to see them limit polling to the swing districts - that would tell us more.
The MSM are still glorifying exit polling. They forget that R voters are afraid to say they voted R because the pollster will spit on their face.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 9:20 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Dems’ lead on generic ballot shrinks to 3 points: Politico/Morning Consult poll 11/5/2018
Doesn't it always? This is the new norm.
Polls show 20-30 point leads 6 months - 2 months out.
2 month to 1 month out - Dem leads shrink in the 10-20 points range
1 month to 2 weeks out - lead shrinks to 5-10 point lead
2 weeks to 1 week out - lead is within 5
1 week to election - marginal lead or tie
Election day - Resound defeat of the Dems anywhere from 4 to 15 points
This post was edited on 11/5/18 at 9:20 am
Posted on 11/5/18 at 9:26 am to cajunangelle
quote:I feel a last second effort by polls to close the gap. Come tomorrow, they'll claim there was a last minute "surge"
I don't want to get ahead of it but CAN YOU FEEL IT COMING? muh polls will be wrong.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 9:27 am to SirWinston
Bro I got GOP wins the House PredictIt shares for like 30 cents
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:08 am to NC_Tigah
Trump is using the electoral college to his advantage, as he did in '16. Lots of libs can show up and vote in California and New York but the electoral votes don't change because of that.
And that's why we have the electoral college. I can't accept a bunch of Starcucks sipping fruity figs in massive liberal cities dictating how I live in small-town Middle America.
And that's why we have the electoral college. I can't accept a bunch of Starcucks sipping fruity figs in massive liberal cities dictating how I live in small-town Middle America.
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