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Death rates in Italy and the US are going in opposite directions?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:18 pm
Up to 9.4% vs 1.25%.
Where are all the graphs?You'd think this news would be ALL over the MSM.
I mean over the last 3 weeks the only graphs I've seen are those insipid hockey stick graphs comparing cases in each county.
Where are all the graphs?You'd think this news would be ALL over the MSM.
I mean over the last 3 weeks the only graphs I've seen are those insipid hockey stick graphs comparing cases in each county.
13
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:20 pm to RD Dawg
Alora as Italians say
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:20 pm to RD Dawg
So, what’s the current theory on what’s going on there?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:21 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:The ER's are overloaded and health care workers are sick.
So, what’s the current theory on what’s going on there?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:21 pm to Jrv2damac
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:22 pm to RD Dawg
Let me help you out there.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:23 pm to Y.A. Tittle
Our hospitals are under capacity. Italy has exceeded capacity.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:23 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
So, what’s the current theory on what’s going on there?
Italy's hospital capacity in completely full. There not treating anyone over 60 years old now.
We still have beds, etc available in the US. Hope we don't get there especially in Louisiana.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:27 pm to RD Dawg
If you want to get technical our deaths are growing at like 31%/day, and theirs are growing at like 15%/day.
The slopes of the lines are pretty visible
.
The slopes of the lines are pretty visible
.Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:30 pm to NYNolaguy1
Thanks and now let's see per capita.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:31 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Thanks and now let's see per capita.
Per capita of what exactly?
ETA: As I noted above our daily growth rate is like 31%, theirs is 15%. That's independent of population.
This post was edited on 3/23/20 at 11:36 pm
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:33 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Up to 9.4% vs 1.25%.
1.25% could go up or down
It would be a lot higher if they made the idiotic decision to go back to regular life with no social distancing precautions right now
It will likely plummet down if we wait until May 1st while the production of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin and medical supplies/ventilators get replenished.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:37 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
you want to get technical our deaths are growing at like 31%/day, and theirs are growing at like 15%/day.
Wow,so that's the spin? They've got 10X more cases and you're comparing percentage increases?If you wanna get really technical let's go with per capita numbers on deaths and let's get back to the death rate numbers going in completey opposite directions.
How'd that happen?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:41 pm to OKtiger
How long are you willing to do this?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:42 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Wow,so that's the spin? They've got 10X more cases and you're comparing percentage increases?If you wanna get really technical let's go with per capita numbers on deaths and let's get back to the death rate numbers going in completey opposite directions.
How'd that happen?
You think they have 10x more cases than us?
You know we will have more cases than them most likely with a few days, right?
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 6:19 am
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:46 pm to OKtiger
quote:
1.25% could go up or down
It'll go down.
quote:
will likely plummet down if we wait until May 1st while the production of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin and medical supplies/ventilators get replenished.
Wait a second.Ive been hearing for 3 weeks now how we were gonna become Italy...nevermind the nobody wanted to bother with per capita comparison or with the fact that Italy has a horrible record in recent years compared to the rest of Europe when comes to sick elderly people catching influenza and dying
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:49 pm to Jason9782003
quote:
Italy's hospital capacity in completely full. There not treating anyone over 60 years old now.
Exactly...Italy is getting hit hard because 18% of their population, like the rest of Europe, is over 65 compared to the US at 9% and the average age of their citizens is 49 compared to the US at 38...
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:51 pm to OKtiger
quote:
It would be a lot higher if they made the idiotic decision to go back to regular life
quote:
For the vast majority of our working age population, CV19 is milder and less risky than the flu. Get those folks back to work. For at risk groups, CV19 is much worse than the flu. Quarantine those groups.
• Continue to ramp up testing.
• Quarantine positives.
• Encourage recovered positives to donate blood.
• Harvest CV19 antibodies from that pool.
• Mandatory shelter-in-place for highest risk groups (e.g., >65y/o).
• ICU patients administered convalescent sera antibodies along with other efficacious meds.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:52 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
nevermind the nobody wanted to bother with per capita comparison
It's not quite that simple to do a simple scale comparison-theres a lot of systemic differences between the two countries. For one they have more older people because they live longer on average. They live longer because their older population is also healthier (or their healthcare system is better- you choose). Secondly their population density is way more uniform and not nearly as diverse as the US is. Third is their quantity of people coming into the country that were infected was likely higher than what the US has,even accounting for the fact that the US had people earlier.
If you think you can accurately scale a model based on that by multiplying their death numbers by some 2 decimal point scale factor, have it.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:53 pm to OKtiger
quote:
1.25% could go up or down
It's going to go way down
quote:
It would be a lot higher if they made the idiotic decision to go back to regular life with no social distancing precautions right now
Any idea of how many deaths we are talking about total?
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