COVID Herd Immunity Threshold now believed to be between 10-20% infected.

this might be a dumb question, but can someone explain how 15% could possibly be herd?

I thought 40% was when the slowdown is significant and 60% was true herd immunity

Well, read the link. It’s incredibly long but it lays it out very simply.

Basically, if you know the IFR (which we now have a very good idea of) then you know how many have been infected by extrapolating deaths.

They have determined the HIT by a myriad of different things. Studies of Sweden (no lockdowns), cruise ships (probably the best case study of infection rate we have) and also testing for antibodies and T cell reaction. This has determined that a rather large portion of the earths population has a natural immunity to the virus already.

The HIT calculation almost directly follows any death curve you want to look at. There will be no “second wave” and it’s getting pretty close to burnout

But my grandpa Fauci said there would be a second and third wave, except in areas of peaceful (or violent) protesting.

Author is an anti-vaxxer moron.

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/j-b-handleys-unthinking-persons-guide-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/

NEXT

Probably about 20m+ infected... it's just that covid19 isn't serious or a big deal for most people, and most people don't get tested if they aren't feeling bad.

Severely under counting the infected while over counting the deaths is what the problem is. It leads to an exaggerated mortality rate and mass hysteria.

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Severely under counting the infected while over counting the deaths is what the problem is. It leads to an exaggerated mortality rate and mass hysteria.

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The problem is the media wants the hysteria

There's a reason I have started bringing attention to the Georgia numbers the last few days in Chrome's big CV thread. Other than Keisha's toothless order, we have not shut down here, and there is another peak developing for the state around July 1 without lockdowns and in fact continued reopening. Huge, huge news if we see a steady downturn in cases without shut downs, that would imply a certain level of developing herd immunity. That does NOT mean I think we've achieved it, just means we're on our way. Meaning I think Texas, Florida, AZ and Cali won't be far behind if we see that pattern continue.

Interesting read and I hope it's true.

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how could 15% be herd immunity

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There was a German study of ppl who for example lived with COVID person but never got it.
They saw some T Cell presence in a large chunk of those ppl.

They theorized that particular T Cell presence imparts immunity or at least a large degree.

Roughly 35% of Germany thought to be essentially immune.