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Started By
Message
COVID Cases dropping dramatically
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:29 pm
Beginning on 1/12/21, the number of new daily COVID Cases began to decline dramatically.
You can see from the graph below, that the decline is almost linear. If you look at the two previous "Spikes" you can see that the tail from both is elongated.
The current decline doesn't match anything in the reported history of COVID. The two recent dips were both caused by the reporting impact of the Thanksgiving & Christmas holidays.
Testing volume remains high while the positivity rate is declining dramatically.
I know someone will say, "Didn't the CDC just talk about changing what a positive case is?". Yes, but that hasn't actually begun yet and certainly wasn't in place when this decline started.
The decline clearly began under Trump, but I bet you Biden takes credit for it.
Given all the data frickery we've seen over the last year, I can't help but say these numbers are looking cooked.
You can see from the graph below, that the decline is almost linear. If you look at the two previous "Spikes" you can see that the tail from both is elongated.
The current decline doesn't match anything in the reported history of COVID. The two recent dips were both caused by the reporting impact of the Thanksgiving & Christmas holidays.
Testing volume remains high while the positivity rate is declining dramatically.
I know someone will say, "Didn't the CDC just talk about changing what a positive case is?". Yes, but that hasn't actually begun yet and certainly wasn't in place when this decline started.
The decline clearly began under Trump, but I bet you Biden takes credit for it.
Given all the data frickery we've seen over the last year, I can't help but say these numbers are looking cooked.
24
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:30 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
ou can see from the graph below, that the decline is almost linear.
Interesting, that's kinda how the vote dumps looked on those graphs as well.
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:30 pm to Chromdome35
I BET not ONE person here is surprised! Not ONE!
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:30 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
but I bet you Biden takes credit for it.
Listening to Shapiro live, he already took credit for it earlier this morning.
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:31 pm to Chromdome35
Isn't that the day the WHO changed the criteria for reporting positive cases?
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:31 pm to Chromdome35
Uncle Joe's magic touch! 
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:31 pm to Chromdome35
Shocked, I tell ya! Never saw it coming. Thanks, Joe!
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:32 pm to Chromdome35
that would be about 2 weeks past christmas and new years so that makes sense to me
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:32 pm to Chromdome35
The numbers are probably being cooked but that’s also about 4 weeks after a lot of people started getting first doses of vaccine.
Couple that with existing immunity and the end of the holiday surge, cases are probably infact dropping precipitously
Couple that with existing immunity and the end of the holiday surge, cases are probably infact dropping precipitously
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:32 pm to Chromdome35
Been missing your charts. Thanks
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:33 pm to AthensTiger
I still publish them everyday, you can link to the thread here.
https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/politics/daily-covid-19-stats-as-of-1-25-21/94398900/
https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/politics/daily-covid-19-stats-as-of-1-25-21/94398900/
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:35 pm to Tiguar
Yea, that is the only rational explanation I can come up with; however, I wouldn't expect the line to be so linear downward. I expected it should be more elongated like the previous bumps.
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:35 pm to coachcrisp
quote:
Uncle Joe's magic touch!
2.5 days and he had this shite cured... can't hold Uncle Joe back...
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:35 pm to Chromdome35
Double masks doing work! Let’s go triple just for the hell of it.
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:36 pm to Tiguar
quote:
The numbers are probably being cooked but that’s also about 4 weeks after a lot of people started getting first doses of vaccine
No science supports this being the reason.
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:36 pm to Chromdome35
Double masks are working
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:36 pm to moneyg
Shut the frick up
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:38 pm to Chromdome35
Praise Jesus! It's a MIRACLE, I tell ya!
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:38 pm to Meauxjeaux
The nearest I can tell, the WHO released their comments on Dec 16th.
I have read the Covid Tracking Project notes, usually a pretty good source for the details behind the data, and they haven't mentioned a change in the reporting of case numbers.
Here is the official WHO document from the 16th. https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1322790/retrieve
I have read the Covid Tracking Project notes, usually a pretty good source for the details behind the data, and they haven't mentioned a change in the reporting of case numbers.
Here is the official WHO document from the 16th. https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1322790/retrieve
This post was edited on 1/26/21 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 1/26/21 at 12:45 pm to Chromdome35
I think we are going to see an odd "wave" because it will be the sum of multiple forces pulling in opposite directions. The reporting lags obviously cause the resulting spike to appear higher over the following week. Likewise states red and blue started cracking down in late December more than they had been.
Likewise we may be seeing some effect of the vaccine preventing spread via Healthcare workers and first responders.
Deaths will probably continue up over the next few weeks, but I hope to see a quick decent to near nothing by June.
Likewise we may be seeing some effect of the vaccine preventing spread via Healthcare workers and first responders.
Deaths will probably continue up over the next few weeks, but I hope to see a quick decent to near nothing by June.
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