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Started By
Message
Axios polls: Trump +3 OH +3 TX +1 FL, Biden +1 NV +6 nationally
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:57 pm
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:57 pm
19
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:58 pm to RidiculousHype
Imagine telling someone in 2004,2008,2012 that one day Ohio and Texas were voting in very similar ways
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:59 pm to RidiculousHype
Biden only +1 in Nevada?
TRUMP gonna win there by 2-3 points.
TRUMP gonna win there by 2-3 points.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:00 pm to RidiculousHype
One thing that seems very peculiar to me is that there seems to be a consensus that Trump is favored in Ohio, yet a massive underdog for an EC/PV victory if polls are supposed to be believed (I do not think they're accurate). Seems to buck conventional wisdom that as Ohio goes so goes the rest of the map.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:00 pm to RidiculousHype
Is this the start of the poll corrections people have been predicting?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:01 pm to LSUminati
quote:
One thing that seems very peculiar to me is that there seems to be a consensus that Trump is favored in Ohio, yet a massive underdog for an EC/PV victory if polls are supposed to be believed (I do not think they're accurate). Seems to buck conventional wisdom that as Ohio goes so goes the rest of the map.
Ohio is no longer a bellwether state, at least as long as the current political coalitions stay the same
It’s an aging, blue collar state that has soured on the dems.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:02 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Pennsylvania has replaced them, I think.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:03 pm to LSUminati
quote:
Seems to buck conventional wisdom that as Ohio goes so goes the rest of the map.
I think the theory is that Trump won Ohio big last time and only won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania small.
If his margin in Ohio shrinks to a very small win, that likely means Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have slipped to narrow defeats.
I'm not buying that of course, I think he'll win Ohio by what he did last time at least, but that's their theory.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:03 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Ohio is no longer a bellwether state, at least as long as the current political coalitions stay the same
It’s an aging, blue collar state that has soured on the dems.
This is purely a Trump phenomenon though. I'm not saying it won't continue, but this was not the case four years ago.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:05 pm to RidiculousHype
SurveyMonkey is horrible with their left leaning skew
These are fantastic polls for Trump
These are fantastic polls for Trump
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:07 pm to RidiculousHype
I wouldnt take this polling with much more than a grain of salt. When you click on the underlying poll its a national poll and then they give the state by state breakdown. I doubt that this was powered to give any statistical certainty on a state by state level.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:07 pm to RidiculousHype
Lol at +3 in Texas
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:07 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Is this the start of the poll corrections people have been predicting?
That would be my guess. Getting close to the finish. Numbers are tightening up just in case Trump wins by two they can say "we were only off by 2 points" instead of seven which would make them look like idiots. Remember how the polls were still making adjustments on election day last time? They were in serious cya mode and they still blew it big time.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:09 pm to RidiculousHype
Very weird polls overall though, they completely contradict each other.
If Trump is up a mere 3 in Texas, he should be getting crushed nationally, like Biden +15.
Meanwhile Nevada is a pretty reliably blue state this time and it somehow has gotten closer?
Tells you these polls are all over the place and some or all of them unreliable.
If Trump is up a mere 3 in Texas, he should be getting crushed nationally, like Biden +15.
Meanwhile Nevada is a pretty reliably blue state this time and it somehow has gotten closer?
Tells you these polls are all over the place and some or all of them unreliable.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:45 pm to RidiculousHype
Too bad for Vandehei that Nationwide means jack shite
Posted on 10/26/20 at 2:24 am to RidiculousHype
I think the last debate done Joe in and on election day I think the polls will be flooded with a red wave and there will be no doubt.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 2:49 am to RidiculousHype
As in ‘16 polls get closer and closer to reality as Election Day nears in order to save face and be considered most accurate next time around
Oddly they’re never punished for being Biden(insert democrat) +13 3-4 weeks from Election Day
Oddly they’re never punished for being Biden(insert democrat) +13 3-4 weeks from Election Day
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:07 am to The Boat
quote:
The Boat
This.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:58 am to RidiculousHype
+1 in Florida is BS.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:17 am to RidiculousHype
Biden campaign is dumb enough to think they can win in Texas or Georgia and libtards have poured $109M in South Carolina to beat Lindsay Graham.
It will all be for nothing. Trump will win those 3 states and pull all the senate candidates along with him.
All the money, resources and time the dems spent in those 3 states will be wasted when they should have been spent in Florida and Pennsylvania.
It will all be for nothing. Trump will win those 3 states and pull all the senate candidates along with him.
All the money, resources and time the dems spent in those 3 states will be wasted when they should have been spent in Florida and Pennsylvania.
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