After Hurricane Ian, a low-lying Florida city starts to rebuild. Should it?

After Hurricane Ian, a low-lying Florida city starts to rebuild. Should it?





A home on the water’s edge. That was the dream.

Two and a half years ago, Ignacio Soto could hardly believe his good fortune when he snagged a three-bedroom waterfront home in Cape Coral for $335,000 — a tropical haven where he could catch snapper from his dock and watch dolphins from his back patio.

But last week, after Hurricane Ian barreled into southwest Florida with a biblical surge of ocean surf, the 57-year-old registered nurse was confronting the downside of living just 7 feet above sea level.




But flooding was not unexpected. For decades, scientists, environmentalists, geographers and city planners have warned that large swaths of the U.S. coastline are at risk — and no city has a greater percentage of homes in peril than this rapidly developing Florida metropolis of 200,000 where the Caloosahatchee River empties into the Gulf of Mexico. A recent analysis of flood data found that the city has more than 90,000 properties at substantial risk of flooding, more than Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston or New York.
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Five years ago, a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Cape Coral warned that, in a worst-case scenario, much of the city could be underwater by 2200.
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The question — for experts, at least — is whether Cape Coral and other low-lying cities should rebuild in an era of more intense hurricanes, heavier rainfall and rising seas.

“We know that Category 4 and 5 hurricanes are going to increase and storms are going to be more intense. We know the atmosphere is becoming more moist and storms are going to drop more rain,” said Benjamin Kirtman, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami. “Communities do need to think very carefully about the possibility of relocating to higher ground.”

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