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re: 42% of Louisiana Dems want another Dem candidate against JBE after signing abortion law
Posted on 6/11/19 at 10:17 am to Sentrius
Posted on 6/11/19 at 10:17 am to Sentrius
First of all I applaud the pro-life stance.
Second of all I don’t support JBE.
Third of all this begs the question of how did JBE get elected to begin with (even with the Jindal admin not fully transitioning a successor?)
Second of all I don’t support JBE.
Third of all this begs the question of how did JBE get elected to begin with (even with the Jindal admin not fully transitioning a successor?)
1
Posted on 6/11/19 at 10:34 am to Cole Beer
quote:
I'm a Louisiana Dem
Why should I vote for a Republican, other than "they are not JBE"?
You'll have to sell voters on that, not just on a anti-JBE strategy alone.
Doubt I can change your mind, but I do want to clarify it isn't just "anti-JBE." JBE, imho, is a decent man. He is, unfortunately, a tax and spend liberal whose policies and actions have hurt our economy.
The national economy is growing at 3%...La is growing at 1%
La was one of the few states that actually LOST population. Minus some Katrina level disaster, there is no excuse for that.
Posted on 6/11/19 at 10:53 am to Cole Beer
quote:
Why should I vote for a Republican, other than "they are not JBE"?
You'll have to sell voters on that, not just on a anti-JBE strategy alone.
As a Republican, I agree with you. Some of these posters think "anybody but JBE" is fine, but it's going to take more than that.
I do think a Republican with a good set of ideas on improving the state's economy can beat JBE, but they have to run on those ideas.
Posted on 6/11/19 at 11:12 am to makinskrilla
quote:
Third of all this begs the question of how did JBE get elected to begin with (even with the Jindal admin not fully transitioning a successor?)
Republicans began attacking each other.....mainly Vitter went after Angelle and Dardenne. Vitter had made a lot of "non friends" during his years in the state legislature and Dardenne was one of them. Edwards saw an opportunity to enter the territory and make deals with both Dardenne and Angelle ( with the blessing of the money in the state)
On the state level, you need to look at politics as a game and a popularity contest. Edwards got out and pressed the flesh....showed up at all the local stuff that Vitter did not. Edwards was personally friendly with Dardenne and after Viter had attacked Angelle, Angelle did not want to endorse Vitter so Angelle sat it out.
Posted on 6/11/19 at 11:26 am to WeeWee
quote:
I'm working with the Abraham campaign. There are already plans for multiple Trump rallies and Pence visits once the runoff gets here
Unless Abraham gets his message out in the southern part of the state and presents some novel ideas and positions.....he will have a hard time of forcing a runoff. His only position thus far has been that he wants to reduce Medicaid access. While laudable I'm not sure that will be enough
Posted on 6/11/19 at 12:54 pm to KiwiHead
quote:
Unless Abraham gets his message out in the southern part of the state and presents some novel ideas and positions.....he will have a hard time of forcing a runoff. His only position thus far has been that he wants to reduce Medicaid access. While laudable I'm not sure that will be enough
Lafayette here, and Abraham appear to be the only legitimate republican candidate.
Posted on 6/11/19 at 2:15 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Don't waste one dime trying to get libs to stay home.
Hey, LA GOP, Rispone and Abraham campaigns, don't listen to this guy and his bad advice right here.
Good campaigns use every tactic to win including the best tactics. Freezing and depressing your opponent's base is a standard tactic in politics and we see it frequently.
One reason why Trump won is that a lot of democrats in the rust belt stayed home and that's because Trump was able to paint Hillary Clinton as not being liberal enough or pro working class enough.
JBE won 2015 in part because he was able to freeze enough democrats, republicans and independents who usually vote GOP by shaming a potential Vitter vote on them.
Posted on 6/11/19 at 2:18 pm to Sentrius
This post was edited on 6/11/19 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 6/11/19 at 2:21 pm to KiwiHead
quote:
after Viter had attacked Angelle, Angelle did not want to endorse Vitter so Angelle sat it out.
And what did he get for his troubles a year later?
A humiliating as shite loss in a house race to Clay fricking Higgins of all people that was well funded and backed by Vitter supporters and a lot of power players in Louisiana GOP politics.
Angelle learned a harsh lesson here and that's be a team player no matter how much you hate it or they'll fund and support the guy running against you if you still keep running for office.
quote:
Unless Abraham gets his message out in the southern part of the state and presents some novel ideas and positions....
How many times do I have to say this to you?
There has not been one single poll at all that shows JBE has the necessary 50.1% to win outright in the first round. Not one.
Hell, I linked one on the first page of this thread showing him 8 points under and you ignored it.
This post was edited on 6/11/19 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 6/11/19 at 4:34 pm to Sentrius
quote:
How many times do I have to say this to you?
There has not been one single poll at all that shows JBE has the necessary 50.1% to win outright in the first round. Not one.
Hell, I linked one on the first page of this thread showing him 8 points under and you ignored it.
Abraham is a third stringer and you know it.A dead Republican propped up in a chair can win that district I'll make a bet. By Labor Day Abraham's position will not have changed.
I take issue with you about the fact that Edwards cannot win in the primary. I on't see any path right now for Abraham to exceed 50.1 on his own in the primary and I'm not seeing much in terms of enthusiasm for Rispone. Actually Abraham needs to make sure Rispone stays irrelevant
As to Angelle and Higgins.....Higgins got elected because most people saw his TV spots as the face of the St. Landry Sheriff Dept. Higgins was part of Trump's coat tails not that Angelle was all that good of a candidate .
Irrespective of Angelle, JBE got in and has done a good job of putting himself in a position to win re-election...forget the ideology, he has solidified his base of support and I'll bet that he peels off just enough Republican votes that gives him 50.1
Posted on 6/11/19 at 4:35 pm to kingbob
quote:
We should have a poliboarder run for governor pretending to be the progressive, common-sense alternative to JBE
why are you destroying my dream
quote:
I think SFP could fill that niche.
oh, nevermind
Posted on 6/11/19 at 6:05 pm to KiwiHead
quote:
I'll make a bet. By Labor Day Abraham's position will not have changed.
I have never made a bet in my posting history on TigerDroppings and I never will. I don't make bets with anon strangers on the internet.
quote:
I take issue with you about the fact that Edwards cannot win in the primary.
I have data and polls supporting my claim. You have assumptions and predictions.
quote:
I on't see any path right now for Abraham to exceed 50.1
That was never a realistic goal although it would be nice.
The realistic Goal is to get into the runoff where traditional politicking will kick in and JBE will have to run on his record and compete against not just the GOP candidate but Trump and Pence coming to town to lay the hammer down on him.
You now how he's nervous about this fall? Him and his crowd won't shut up about Bobby Jindal.
quote:
As to Angelle and Higgins.....Higgins got elected because most people saw his TV spots as the face of the St. Landry Sheriff Dept. Higgins was part of Trump's coat tails not that Angelle was all that good of a candidate .
Angelle had the most money, name recognition and resources for that race and he still couldn't win the first round outright.
Once it got to a runoff, people who supported Vitter smelled blood in the water and went after him hard. A couple super pacs against Angelle popped up overnight in the race there.
quote:
JBE got in and has done a good job of putting himself in a position to win re-election...forget the ideology, he has solidified his base of support and I'll bet that he peels off just enough Republican votes that gives him 50.1
Again, you have no data and polls to support your claim that JBE will win the first round outright.
I have polls and data supporting my claim, you don't.
JBE has not reached 50.1 in one single poll. Not one.
Posted on 6/11/19 at 8:13 pm to Sentrius
Campaigns are about maximizing resources and not wasting effort. Especially when you aren't the incumbent.
I fully expect the LAGOP to "not listen to that guy" and the result will be 4 more years of JBE.
Abrahams path to victory will be by giving voters reasons to vote for him, not fighting a losing battle trying to get libs to stay home.
I fully expect the LAGOP to "not listen to that guy" and the result will be 4 more years of JBE.
Abrahams path to victory will be by giving voters reasons to vote for him, not fighting a losing battle trying to get libs to stay home.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 12:05 pm to Sentrius
quote:
Again, you have no data and polls to support your claim that JBE will win the first round outright.
I have polls and data supporting my claim, you don't.
JBE has not reached 50.1 in one single poll. Not one.
I've worked every major election in Louisiana since 1983....started with Treen trying to get re-elected, so I think that I have the experience to confidently say that JBE is in a very good position to win . The Republican establishment in this state has not coalesced financially around Abraham...and he's their only real player.
Edwards has anywhere from 8.4 million to 10 million in the bank. Eddie Rispone has loaned himself 5 million for the race and the last numbers for Abraham had him rising less than 1.5 million. That tells me the money is not sold on Abraham and the powers that be in the state GOP are not that going to go full enthusiastic at Abraham. In contrast in 2006-2007 Jindal had the GOP organized behind him and he cruised to victory against Gov. Blanco same type of enthusiasm(after he switched parties) existed for Mike Foster in 1995.
Pay attention to whom is the better campaigner and who will go to places like Zwolle for the tamale festival and more importantly in the Fall who shows up regularly to tailgating for LSU games and lesser extent UL - Lafayette games......your boy Vitter would show up for a few minutes to those but would not really engage people on a personal level.
If Abraham likes hanging out with people , talking football ....and about things like road infrastrucre especially in the I-10 corridor, etc, he could surprise....thus far I have not seen it. Rispone does however, and Edwards does
Posted on 6/12/19 at 1:01 pm to KiwiHead
quote:
Edwards has anywhere from 8.4 million to 10 million in the bank. Eddie Rispone has loaned himself 5 million for the race and the last numbers for Abraham had him rising less than 1.5 million.
COH as of Q1
Rispone: $10,426,783.73
Edwards: $10,185,306.03
Abraham: $1,004,215.80
Posted on 6/12/19 at 1:26 pm to northern
quote:
Rispone: $10,426,783.73
Edwards: $10,185,306.03
Abraham: $1,004,215.80
That number for Abraham is not all that bad considering at that point he was in the race for about 3.5 months. Problem is, the other 2 have 20 million combined.....probably more now. That's a lot of money and money is the mother's milk look for a lot of advertising starting in late August
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