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Posted by
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1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%
Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/6/18 at 8:22 am1718
Tracking:
1/29 4.2%
2/01 5.4%
2/06 4.0%
2/10 4.0%
2/14 3.2% (much more in line with my expectations- see below)
2/16 3.2%
2/27 2.6%
3/01 3.5%
3/07 2.8%
3/09 2.5%
3/14 1.9%
3/16 1.8%
3/23 1.8%
3/29 2.4%
4/02 2.8%
4/05 2.3%
4/10 2.0%
4/16 1.9%
4/17 2.0%
4/26 2.0%
-----------------------------------
Below is from OP on Jan 29:
-----------------------------------
My early prognostication remains a good first 2 quarters (both low 3's), and a good year (2.9 or 3.0).
Stock market discussion not really desired ITT, unless it accompanies a sound argument on how it will directly predict GDP growth swings or something directly relevant like that.
1/29 4.2%
2/01 5.4%
2/06 4.0%
2/10 4.0%
2/14 3.2% (much more in line with my expectations- see below)
2/16 3.2%
2/27 2.6%
3/01 3.5%
3/07 2.8%
3/09 2.5%
3/14 1.9%
3/16 1.8%
3/23 1.8%
3/29 2.4%
4/02 2.8%
4/05 2.3%
4/10 2.0%
4/16 1.9%
4/17 2.0%
4/26 2.0%
-----------------------------------
Below is from OP on Jan 29:
-----------------------------------
My early prognostication remains a good first 2 quarters (both low 3's), and a good year (2.9 or 3.0).
Stock market discussion not really desired ITT, unless it accompanies a sound argument on how it will directly predict GDP growth swings or something directly relevant like that.
This post was edited on 4/26 at 9:01 am
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by Lou Pai on 2/6/18 at 8:37 am to 90proofprofessional
Will be curious to see what happens if we see some real dollar strengthening unfold this year. This is going to have an effect not only on exports obviously but to a lesser extent the tailwinds we've seen in energy.
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/6/18 at 8:40 am to Lou Pai
There'll be an update based on trade data later this morning FWIW
About to go thru Bullard's comments on his macroeconomic outlook for the year. Up front in his bullet points is a somewhat-related argument:
ETA link if anyone cares
ETA again- the STL Fed President isn't as optimistic as me.
He also notes that the relationship between labor market strength and inflation seems to have weakened over time, and argues that we will keep seeing lower inflation than we'd expect. That makes the Fed's job trickier:
quote:
Will be curious to see what happens if we see some real dollar strengthening unfold this year.
About to go thru Bullard's comments on his macroeconomic outlook for the year. Up front in his bullet points is a somewhat-related argument:
quote:
Inflation remains low. Continued strong labor market
performance is unlikely to translate into meaningfully
higher inflation because Phillips curve effects are weak.
ETA link if anyone cares
ETA again- the STL Fed President isn't as optimistic as me.
He also notes that the relationship between labor market strength and inflation seems to have weakened over time, and argues that we will keep seeing lower inflation than we'd expect. That makes the Fed's job trickier:
This post was edited on 2/6 at 8:51 am
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by Lou Pai on 2/6/18 at 8:50 am to 90proofprofessional
Interesting aspect of the recent wage inflation stuff is nonsupervisory wages were actually flat vs last print. Don't pretend to know exactly how they calculate Phillips curve, but I suspect we are going to need to see the wage gains percolate into the broader workforce in order to see inflation pullthrough.
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/6/18 at 8:52 am to Lou Pai
quote:
Interesting aspect of the recent wage inflation stuff is nonsupervisory wages were actually flat
agree this is interesting and very much worth watching
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by GumboPot on 2/6/18 at 8:57 am to 90proofprofessional
Here is the New York Fed's Nowcast prediction for 1Q18.
LINK
I have not looked into the different methodologies between the New York and Atlanta Fed branches.
FWIW here are some key dates:
GDP, 4th quarter and annual 2017 (second estimate) February 28 8:30 am
GDP, 4th quarter and annual 2017 (third estimate) March 28 8:30 am
GDP, 1st quarter 2018 (advance estimate) April 27 8:30 am
GDP, 1st quarter 2018 (second estimate) May 30 8:30 am
GDP, 1st quarter 2018 (third estimate) June 28 8:30 am
LINK
We won't know the final first quarter 2018 GDP number until June 28th...
LINK
I have not looked into the different methodologies between the New York and Atlanta Fed branches.
FWIW here are some key dates:
GDP, 4th quarter and annual 2017 (second estimate) February 28 8:30 am
GDP, 4th quarter and annual 2017 (third estimate) March 28 8:30 am
GDP, 1st quarter 2018 (advance estimate) April 27 8:30 am
GDP, 1st quarter 2018 (second estimate) May 30 8:30 am
GDP, 1st quarter 2018 (third estimate) June 28 8:30 am
LINK
We won't know the final first quarter 2018 GDP number until June 28th...
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/6/18 at 9:55 am to GumboPot
bump for Feb 6 update to 4.0% after trade data report
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by Lou Pai on 2/8/18 at 5:57 pm to 90proofprofessional
Jobless claims continue to be stupid low
CPI next release on Ash Wednesday
Computers can frick right off imo
CPI next release on Ash Wednesday
Computers can frick right off imo
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/8/18 at 6:20 pm to Lou Pai
another update based on wholesaler data coming tomorrow morning
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/9/18 at 10:22 am to 90proofprofessional
2/10 update: no surprises from wholesale data in either direction. atl fed projection for q1 stays put at 4.0
ny fed nowcast up to 3.4
wsj up to 2.9
ny fed nowcast up to 3.4
wsj up to 2.9
This post was edited on 2/9 at 10:23 am
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re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by LSURussian on 2/9/18 at 10:25 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:Is that for entire year of 2018? Or Q1, 2018?
ny fed nowcast up to 3.4
wsj up to 2.9
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/9/18 at 10:25 am to LSURussian
q1 annualized in both cases
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by LSURussian on 2/9/18 at 10:26 am to 90proofprofessional
Thanks.
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/14/18 at 8:47 am to 90proofprofessional
Bumping in anticipation of update later in the morning. Update will be based on inflation and retail sales data.
Looks like January retail data was weak, and the prior couple months retail numbers are being revised down. Meanwhile CPI appears higher than expected and the markets don't seem to care for that.
I think the retail data could be legit bad news, but the inflation numbers aren't as big a deal as people will think. It just looks like we're finally getting really close to having high-enough inflation to hit target.
Curious to see how the model will react when the projection update is released.
Looks like January retail data was weak, and the prior couple months retail numbers are being revised down. Meanwhile CPI appears higher than expected and the markets don't seem to care for that.
I think the retail data could be legit bad news, but the inflation numbers aren't as big a deal as people will think. It just looks like we're finally getting really close to having high-enough inflation to hit target.
Curious to see how the model will react when the projection update is released.
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by Lou Pai on 2/14/18 at 9:12 am to 90proofprofessional
Consumer spending has been worrisome in light of the savings rate data
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by DarthRebel on 2/14/18 at 9:29 am to 90proofprofessional
I wish you would just stop these. We can just wait for the final numbers.
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by Lou Pai on 2/14/18 at 9:32 am to DarthRebel
Good talk
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by LSURussian on 2/14/18 at 9:35 am to Lou Pai
quote:Savings rates usually trend downward when the stock market surges due to consumers feeling wealthier from their net worth increase. We'll see an uptick in retail sales shortly thereafter.
in light of the savings rate data
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/14/18 at 9:44 am to DarthRebel
quote:
I wish you would just stop these. We can just wait for the final numbers.
feel free to show yourself teh door bruh
re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%Posted by 90proofprofessional on 2/14/18 at 10:22 am to 90proofprofessional
another big drop this morning
still pretty good though, and pretty close to my expectations
still pretty good though, and pretty close to my expectations
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