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Timber prices? Best time to sell? Update page2.

Posted on 4/17/21 at 1:08 pm
Posted by BlackPawnMartyr
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2010
15278 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 1:08 pm
Keep hearing about rising prices but also have heard timber prices havent gone up as much as you would think. What are you getting in your area? Will we see a significant rise soon to meet/ match demand?

Land is out side of the McComb Area of MS.

last year prices were...

$5 per ton pulp
22 sawtimber
10 chip and saw
40 pallet
some pine logs sold for $23/ton

*thanks for title correction.


This post was edited on 5/25/21 at 11:26 am
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
45788 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 1:46 pm to
I thought the choke point was the production at the sawmills and not the wood making it to the sawmill. If this is the case, supply of wood isn't the issue and prices probably aren't going up much
Posted by shawnlsu
Member since Nov 2011
23682 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 3:55 pm to
*sell
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10305 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 4:01 pm to
Those are actually good prices. You probably won't get those this year unless you have really good wet weather access and sandy ground. Then the buyer might pay something close to that in order to save it for next winter during wet weather.

Lots of pine pulpwood selling for $2 right now. I'm in the business, and I pulled some strings to get $3 for my family.

Hardwood pulpwood is just as bad. $2 or $3.

Good grade Hardwood logs (high percentage of oak) are bringing $35-40. Normal Hardwood logs like sweet gum, elm, poplar, more like $25-30.

Pine Chip N Saw should be right around that $10 mark down to a 6" top. Pine Chip N Saw to an 8" top should bring $12-14.

Pine logs into Weyco Fernwood are bringing about $20 for the largest size. Grade pine logs to Liberty or Brookhaven are bringing maybe $25 or $28 if they are exceptional.

The price of pine logs has nothing to do with pine lumber. One year ago today pine 2x4s were selling for $400. Today they're selling for $1100. But Weyco Fernwood is paying the same $38 a ton for delivered logs as they were a year ago.

There is no real mystery to the timber business. If Fernwood is paying $38 for a certain sized log, then the timber dealer is going to offer you $18 for the logs. Then he's gonna pay his logger $18 to cut and haul. And he's gonna pocket the $2 leftover as his profit. If you don't want that price, your neighbor does.

I am literally in the business. And five years ago I waited over a year for a logger. I've got 3 months of work to do on my own farm right now. I've been waiting for a crew for over a year. Hoping to get it done this summer. And it's not about price.


Every year there's more standing timber here than there was the year before. And more of a backlog. More supply than demand. If you can get a logger, and get anything like those prices you posted, I would take it.

Posted by Jack Daniel
In the bottle
Member since Feb 2013
25397 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 4:08 pm to
As far as timber prices go, are we seeing the result of everyone planting pine in the 90’s thinking they will be rich and now the market is flooded?
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10305 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

As far as timber prices go, are we seeing the result of everyone planting pine in the 90’s thinking they will be rich and now the market is flooded?



CRP planted 30 million acres of pines between 1988 and 1995. That is basically a "wall of wood" that is all coming mature right now.

On the demand side, we lost about half of the pine sawmills and plywood mills in the state during the great recession. And those haven't been built back. For instance, off the top of my head we lost Gloster, Roxie, Beaumont, Columbia, Morton and Hazlehurst. And in that time we've had one new sawmill built at Newton.

So there's way more timber and way fewer places to buy it. That being said, there are three mills under construction currently in Mississippi. Winona, Lumberton, and Corinth. And another planned near Hammond. So give it 5-10 years and the supply demand balance should improve a bit.

Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
10339 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 4:42 pm to
quote:

So there's way more timber and way fewer places to buy it. That being said, there are three mills under construction currently in Mississippi. Winona, Lumberton, and Corinth. And another planned near Hammond. So give it 5-10 years and the supply demand balance should improve a bit.
This is the story across the US south. Unfortunately timber prices aren’t going anywhere in the short term, but long term trends are good across the southeast. We’re seeing a lot of shift in mill investment to the south from places like Canada which have been ravaged by beetle problems. Moreover, if you look at the macro demand needs for lumber in the housing industry, they’re only going to increase (not just here, but globally). The only two major producing regions that will be able to sustainably harvest additional supply to meet it are Siberia and...the US south.

Greenfield mills and expansions take time, so prices will improve eventually (and maybe quickly depending on what specific wood basket your property is in), but across-the-board price improvement is still a few years off in my opinion.
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
16882 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 4:56 pm to
You don’t cut just to cut I guess unless you can’t pay your bills... it all about what’s best for your overall timber, so get some foresters to see if your stand is ready.. by just thinning you can make a nice chunk and I mprove the rest or they may say you’re not ready to cut anything
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 5:26 pm to
Georgia Pacific closing that saw mill hurt saw timber prices badly for South Mississippi and Florida Parish timber producers. Too much travel involved in getting to a mill. Prices are cheap already but hauling really hurts.
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 5:34 pm to
I got about 100 acres of mature loblolly that I would like to sell but I am in no hurry at these prices. They aren't going to grow any more but the prices are so cheap and the crews so busy during dry weather I think I will wait at least another 5 years. I know that will cost me on the replant growth but I don't rutting up my place with a winter cut when the harvest would barely cover the replanting and the ground repair. (I have about 20 acres of very nice longleaf that I could sell too.)
Posted by turkish
Member since Aug 2016
1732 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 5:45 pm to
Tell me a little about hardwood saw timber, especially in west central MS. That market seems disappointing, considering it has nowhere near the headwinds of the pine market, with the glut of CRP timber you mentioned.

Also I hear Vandevender converted the old Tully mill to pine. True?
This post was edited on 4/17/21 at 5:49 pm
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10305 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 6:38 pm to
quote:

got about 100 acres of mature loblolly that I would like to sell but I am in no hurry at these prices.


If it's mature natural growth pine, the best thing to do is sell it. You'll get about $28 a ton for it if it's good stuff. And then you can plant back and your new growth will be way faster than the mature stuff.

If it's planted pine, then I would try to wait 5 years like you said.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10305 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 6:44 pm to
quote:

Tell me a little about hardwood saw timber, especially in west central MS. That market seems disappointing, considering it has nowhere near the headwinds of the pine market, with the glut of CRP timber you mentioned.



Hardwood has just come through their version of what happened to pine during the 2008-2010 crisis. Basically it was a victim of the trade war with China. I looked at a Hardwood mill's books the other day. From 2010 to 2016 he made $15 million cumulative. From 2017 to 2020 he lost $17 million and declared bankruptcy.

So Hardwood is actually going through the roof now. But it's gonna take another year or two of healthy profits to allow the mills to start chasing log prices higher.

Yes, Billy bought AT at Vicksburg and converted it to pine. And now he's in the middle of a $60 million upgrade there. Also, Kitchen Bros went out of business. And Jones has closed a bunch of its mills. So there aren't as many outlets as there used to be for sure.
Posted by bulldog95
North Louisiana
Member since Jan 2011
20690 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 6:50 pm to
quote:

You don’t cut just to cut I guess unless you can’t pay your bills... it all about what’s best for your overall timber, so get some foresters to see if your stand is ready.. by just thinning you can make a nice chunk and I mprove the rest or they may say you’re not ready to cut anything


This is my family. We get it thinned about every 15-20 years. Now is not the time to sell timber.
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 7:14 pm to
If I can get someone to cut it in the summer or fall I might.

You got any leads to buyers with access to available teams to cut it?
Posted by turkish
Member since Aug 2016
1732 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 7:33 pm to
Jones is closing mills, with all that timber they just bought from ATCo?

What does this mean to a landowner or prospective landowner in that area? Is now a good time to be buying managed hardwood timberland? Of course, understanding that prices have recreational value baked in at a pretty good clip.
This post was edited on 4/17/21 at 7:41 pm
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10305 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 7:38 pm to
quote:

You got any leads to buyers with access to available teams to cut


Where is it? My connections vary drastically by location. If it's good old growth natural pine then it can be trucked much further and still hold its price. Plantation logs have a smaller radius.
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 7:40 pm to
Near Husser

Old growth natural

I haven't owned it long but I can tell Katrina worked it pretty good.Looks of down logs rotted.

I have some old hardwood that is in a wet area I could sell too.
This post was edited on 4/17/21 at 7:42 pm
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10305 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

Jones is closing mills, with all that timber they just bought from ATCo?



Yeah. The oil field mat business has sucked donkey balls for a couple of years. And so has grade lumber. Both are coming back. But mats was their #1 business. And a good chunk of that ATCO stuff they've already hammered. They clearcut a 7000 acre tract that surrounds us on three sides. Looks like shite. They left a few pulpwood trees is all. They hammered it.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10305 posts
Posted on 4/17/21 at 7:42 pm to
quote:

Old growth natural

I haven't owned it long but I can tell Katrina worked it pretty good.Looks of down logs rotted.


Old growth natural with old rotten logs on the ground is a sign that the timber is going downhill. Or at least growth and mortality are balanced so it's adding net tons above loss.
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