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Posted by
Message
Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and Prices
Posted by dawg23 on 8/7/20 at 11:55 am30
Forecast - Not Optimistic
Greg Ellifritz posted this on his blog today:
Greg Ellifritz posted this on his blog today:
quote:
Some industry experts estimate that we won’t see a return to normal inventory levels for 12 months, even when assuming a Republican presidential victory in November. Normal inventory is defined as being able to buy as much as ammo as you want and can afford from the internet or your local retailer.
Worse yet, prices may not return to pre-COVID levels for an up to 12 months after that. The long term disruption to the supply chain tends to result in increased costs for manufacturers which will get passed on to the consumer until we see a full economic recovery.
Unless one of the factors causing massive demand suddenly changes or disappears, we can expect to see increased prices and rationing for some time to come.”
So, about 2 years before things get back to normal. Yep, gonna agree with that.
I already had a goodly stock, and quickly added to it when the toilet paper craziness happened. You could see it coming.
Was very fortunate, in 9mm I was able to get 2k Herter's brass, 1k brass range ammo from an online reloader, 1k aluminum cased, 1k steel cased. All for under $200/case shipped. Was able to pick up 1k of premium SD ammo for $400, too, Speer Gold Dot 124gr JHP.
I wouldn't even define that as hoarding, as I would simply set a price, and when something came up I'd buy a case. But now, I'm coming out of 2020 in even better shape than I came into it.
I already had a goodly stock, and quickly added to it when the toilet paper craziness happened. You could see it coming.
Was very fortunate, in 9mm I was able to get 2k Herter's brass, 1k brass range ammo from an online reloader, 1k aluminum cased, 1k steel cased. All for under $200/case shipped. Was able to pick up 1k of premium SD ammo for $400, too, Speer Gold Dot 124gr JHP.
I wouldn't even define that as hoarding, as I would simply set a price, and when something came up I'd buy a case. But now, I'm coming out of 2020 in even better shape than I came into it.
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by lsufan1971 on 8/7/20 at 1:04 pm to dawg23
I just paid .37 CPR for a 1000 rd case of mag tech 115Gr 9mm. I was just happy to get it.
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by lsufan1971 on 8/7/20 at 1:05 pm to Scoob
quote:
Was able to pick up 1k of premium SD ammo for $400, too, Speer Gold Dot 124gr JHP.
How long ago?
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by TigersSEC2010 on 8/7/20 at 2:36 pm to dawg23
If Biden wins, you'll see gun sales and ammunition sales explode. His gun control plan should be horrifying to everyone.
If Trump wins, the OP is probably correct.
If Trump wins, the OP is probably correct.
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by onelochevy on 8/7/20 at 6:10 pm to dawg23
The salad days are over for a while. Hope and pray that Trump wins in November, otherwise theyll be gone forever.
quote:
So, about 2 years before things get back to normal. Yep, gonna agree with that.
I already had a goodly stock, and quickly added to it when the toilet paper craziness happened. You could see it coming.
Was very fortunate, in 9mm I was able to get 2k Herter's brass, 1k brass range ammo from an online reloader, 1k aluminum cased, 1k steel cased. All for under $200/case shipped. Was able to pick up 1k of premium SD ammo for $400, too, Speer Gold Dot 124gr JHP.
I wouldn't even define that as hoarding, as I would simply set a price, and when something came up I'd buy a case. But now, I'm coming out of 2020 in even better shape than I came into it.
Let's hope it doesn't take that long, but I'm afraid that that will be the case. If not longer. I'm sure of the exact reason why, but I went on a big time ammo buying binge on gunbroker.com for 9mm, .45 ACP, 5.56mm and 7.62mm x 51 ammo and was able to get most of them at great prices at the time, which is also looking better with the ammo shortage going on now. I estimated that I increased my stock by at least 33%, if not more. Does anyone use an app to help keep track of their ammo? I saw one in Android Play Store, but don't know if I can trust that BATF won't be buying the info in the future.
The average cost of each round during the late March, April buying binge was: 9mm - 0.22/round, .45 - 0.38/round, 5.56 - 0.34/round and 7.62x51 - 0.40/round. I believe the average cost per round is now either double or more than double now online.
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by upgrade on 8/7/20 at 9:36 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
If Biden wins, you'll see gun sales and ammunition sales explode.
I don’t know if ammo sales CAN go higher than they are right now.
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by Scoob on 8/8/20 at 1:14 am to lsufan1971
quote:End of May. Ordered on the 29th, got it in the first week of June.
Was able to pick up 1k of premium SD ammo for $400, too, Speer Gold Dot 124gr JHP.
How long ago?
Targetsportsusa ran a deal, 50% off. Someone on another forum posted that they were doing it, and I immediately went there. They were already out of some weights, but still had the 124gr in stock.
quote:
TS53618-BULK - 53618 Speer Gold Dot LE Duty 9mm Luger Ammo 124 Grain Jacketed Hollow Point-Case of 1000 (20 Boxes of 50) - Free Shipping 1 $799.80 $799.80
Order Notes:
None
Line Item Discounts: -$399.90
SubTotal: $399.90
Shipping Insurance: $5.80
Discreet Overbox Packaging
Shipping: FREE SHIPPING
LA State Tax: $17.80
Total: $423.50
So, it isn't +P, but I have fullsize guns. Expansion is fine with a regular barrel, you only need +P for compacts.
Probably the best deal I've come across in awhile, so I'm probably actually AHEAD in terms of ammo costs cheers:
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re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by RetiredSaintsLsuFan on 8/8/20 at 6:32 am to Scoob
TargetSportsUSA is where I have been getting my ammo. I was able to some 38 special +P loads before they sold out. I have 40 rounds of them plus about 50+- rounds of reloads for the 38 special.
I also have 100 rounds of 9MM HP's, 100 rounds of 9MM regular loads and about 50+- loads of 9MM reloads.
I don't know if the prices are high or not being I have not bought ammo in 30+ years. I paid $39.95 for 50 rounds.
I also have 100 rounds of 9MM HP's, 100 rounds of 9MM regular loads and about 50+- loads of 9MM reloads.
I don't know if the prices are high or not being I have not bought ammo in 30+ years. I paid $39.95 for 50 rounds.
This post was edited on 8/8 at 6:35 am
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by Scoob on 8/8/20 at 12:02 pm to RetiredSaintsLsuFan
We're in a 2nd shortage now, all related to demand surges from the riots.
The first one was ending, about the time that occurred.
I say that, because price and availability was stabilizing in late June before the next panic hit.
I mentioned some of my 9mm purchases; the 2k of Herters. That was 2 separate orders from Cabelas/Bass Pro. Done at pre-panic prices, $179 a case, free shipping (Fedex), state tax applied. Also 1k Federal aluminum, done through them, same price.
First order was the Federal, May 8. Next was the first Herter's order, a week later. Those both took about a month to ship. I had tracking numbers for both, when I saw the deal on the Gold Dot at Targetsportsusa.
So in late May, we had some deliveries of things that were being sold as back-orders, as well as a big seller with a great bargain on premium ammo.
That says supply was back.
I recall seeing prices drop around then, heading back to the $200 range. Targetsports had some things for around $230, other places weren't yet there but were heading that way.
Late June I placed my 2nd order of Herters, again available at $179 a case. That time it shipped in a week, so they had stock on hand.
I also got an order elsewhere of Tula 9mm (steel case) for $154 + shipping on a Father's Day special. Not my first choice of ammo, but right now I can accept steel for that price, so I ordered it. It also shipped immediately.
Mid May I ordered a case from a reloader, came out to be $180, + $17 shipping, so $197 total. At first they said 2 weeks longer than usual due to high demand.
A week after the riots, they emailed and said it would be delayed, offered a full refund. I contacted them back and kept the order, and they said they just were not getting any components in at that time. They couldn't find anything and had run out. They kept the order on hold.
I received it last week, and due to the delay, they refunded the cost of shipping so it was $180.
They ARE NOT currently taking orders, so I imagine they are just churning through backorders. But they've apparently got stuff coming in now.
Things since the riots have gone completely batshit, cases have doubled, tripled in price. I don't know when they will drop, because I think we're going to have to stop buying at the inflated prices, and people haven't done that yet.
The first one was ending, about the time that occurred.
I say that, because price and availability was stabilizing in late June before the next panic hit.
I mentioned some of my 9mm purchases; the 2k of Herters. That was 2 separate orders from Cabelas/Bass Pro. Done at pre-panic prices, $179 a case, free shipping (Fedex), state tax applied. Also 1k Federal aluminum, done through them, same price.
First order was the Federal, May 8. Next was the first Herter's order, a week later. Those both took about a month to ship. I had tracking numbers for both, when I saw the deal on the Gold Dot at Targetsportsusa.
So in late May, we had some deliveries of things that were being sold as back-orders, as well as a big seller with a great bargain on premium ammo.
That says supply was back.
I recall seeing prices drop around then, heading back to the $200 range. Targetsports had some things for around $230, other places weren't yet there but were heading that way.
Late June I placed my 2nd order of Herters, again available at $179 a case. That time it shipped in a week, so they had stock on hand.
I also got an order elsewhere of Tula 9mm (steel case) for $154 + shipping on a Father's Day special. Not my first choice of ammo, but right now I can accept steel for that price, so I ordered it. It also shipped immediately.
Mid May I ordered a case from a reloader, came out to be $180, + $17 shipping, so $197 total. At first they said 2 weeks longer than usual due to high demand.
A week after the riots, they emailed and said it would be delayed, offered a full refund. I contacted them back and kept the order, and they said they just were not getting any components in at that time. They couldn't find anything and had run out. They kept the order on hold.
I received it last week, and due to the delay, they refunded the cost of shipping so it was $180.
They ARE NOT currently taking orders, so I imagine they are just churning through backorders. But they've apparently got stuff coming in now.
Things since the riots have gone completely batshit, cases have doubled, tripled in price. I don't know when they will drop, because I think we're going to have to stop buying at the inflated prices, and people haven't done that yet.
Local academy had 4 bulk 500 round cases of Winchester 115g and probably 30 50rd boxes.
Limit of 3. I picked up 2 of the 500rd bulks at $105 each (and for the first time was excited to get Winchester bulk, lol).
I’m pretty sure they didn’t stay on the shelf long.
Limit of 3. I picked up 2 of the 500rd bulks at $105 each (and for the first time was excited to get Winchester bulk, lol).
I’m pretty sure they didn’t stay on the shelf long.
quote:Yeah, I feel ya re the WWB There's a reason I prefer S&B, Fiocchi, PPU...
Local academy had 4 bulk 500 round cases of Winchester 115g and probably 30 50rd boxes.
Limit of 3. I picked up 2 of the 500rd bulks at $105 each (and for the first time was excited to get Winchester bulk, lol).
Not sure about that Herter's, I hear it's WWB too. But for range shooting, 20 cents a rd is acceptable. Not great, but in the range of "it's ok", even pre-covid.
quote:
Not sure about that Herter's, I hear it's WWB too.
I saw this posted on another board - don't know if it's reliable info or not:
Cabelas has purchased the rights to the Herters Name and trade marks. Cabelas did not purchase any equipment used to manufacture ammunition at all. Cabelas contracts out via bid to manufacture their ammunition. Have seen manufacturers from at least 5 different countries thus far and there may be more. You may buy a caliber made by wolf in one batch and later buy the exact same box and loading and it could be made by a different manufacture if Cabela’s put out a new bid.
quote:Herter's is like Monarch at Academy, a marketing label slapped on somebody's ammo.quote:
Not sure about that Herter's, I hear it's WWB too.
I saw this posted on another board - don't know if it's reliable info or not:
Cabelas has purchased the rights to the Herters Name and trade marks. Cabelas did not purchase any equipment used to manufacture ammunition at all. Cabelas contracts out via bid to manufacture their ammunition. Have seen manufacturers from at least 5 different countries thus far and there may be more. You may buy a caliber made by wolf in one batch and later buy the exact same box and loading and it could be made by a different manufacture if Cabela’s put out a new bid.
I had some in the past, it used to be Sellier and Bellot. You could tell, because it was "made in Czech Republic" on the box, and interestingly enough the boxes were the same size (and S&B has the smallest boxes on the market). The stamp said HER, but the round looked like a S&B (super bright brass jacket that matched the case).
It now is in a different box, and says "made in USA" on the box. That means it's Winchester, Remington, or some version of Federal/American Eagle/Blazer Brass. It doesn't look like Blazer to me.
Monarch, btw, was PPU (Prvi Partizan), last I knew. Made in Serbia.
edit to add- Monarch Brass was PPU.
Monarch Steel is Brown Bear. Different case finish than Tula. I have some Monarch 9x18 Makarov, and the rounds are identical. Same color jacket, same lacquer finish, same red lacquer sealant on the primer. I assume they have the same contract for other calibers.
Herter's (Cabelas/Bass Pro) and Monarch (Academy) would be placing rather large orders, to stock their "store brand" in every store. That's in addition to the same thing in 'native' packaging, so it would be practically a double order if a company can land the contract.
Herter's would have their own case stamp, I don't recall seeing a Monarch case stamp. Then again, there's not going to be as big an order of Monarch as there would be Herters. You get an order that large, you probably can ask for stamps etc.
Looking online, there appears to be about 180 Bass Pro or Cabela's stores, with lots of ammo on shelves (usually). So that's a BIG contract.
This post was edited on 8/9 at 12:10 am
P.P. (Prior to the pandemic) I could always find the Federal ammo that Walmart used to sell. It came if a maroon box and was labeled Federal Champion.
Federal still makes this ammo, but the Champion label is only on 100 round boxes. I like it because it's a little milder than Blazer ammo - this stuff is 115 grains w/ muzzle velocity of 1125 ft/sec. When "soccer moms" (or "little or ladies") schedule a private lesson, I like to use this ammo while getting them acclimated to shooting a 9mm pistol.
I guess it'll be available again one of these days.
Federal still makes this ammo, but the Champion label is only on 100 round boxes. I like it because it's a little milder than Blazer ammo - this stuff is 115 grains w/ muzzle velocity of 1125 ft/sec. When "soccer moms" (or "little or ladies") schedule a private lesson, I like to use this ammo while getting them acclimated to shooting a 9mm pistol.
I guess it'll be available again one of these days.
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by RetiredSaintsLsuFan on 8/9/20 at 6:41 am to dawg23
Did Walmart sell all of the handgun ammo or just take it off the shelves when the rioting started?
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by Scoob on 8/9/20 at 11:07 am to RetiredSaintsLsuFan
quote:I thought they announced beforehand that they would no longer carry "offensive" ammo, such as handgun, or 223/556.
Did Walmart sell all of the handgun ammo or just take it off the shelves when the rioting started?
re: Ammo Shortage - Forecast on Availability and PricesPosted by RetiredSaintsLsuFan on 8/9/20 at 11:32 am to Scoob
quote:
I thought they announced beforehand that they would no longer carry "offensive" ammo, such as handgun, or 223/556.
What do they think most of the guns and ammo is being bought for? I am buying it for defensive purposes not offensive.
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