re: Winter Storm Leon Updates - No More OP Updates..

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Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't we be better off across South La with snow at this point? Precipitation and freezing temps seem likely and if it turns out to be mostly ice, freezing rain, or sleet wouldn't that be worse on roads, power lines, etc.?

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Of course. Ice storms are always much worse, causing many more problems than just snow.

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 so a quick look at the forecasted soundings from around hour 48 - 60 on the 18z GFS - BTR starts out below freezing at the surface with a saturated dendrite growth zone (where snowflakes form) but there is a warm nose (area above the ground but below the dendrite growth zone that is above freezing) but it isn't that big. BTR probably starts off as sleet but maybe freezing rain then transitions to sleet and ends as snow. It looks like a majority of the precipitation falls as sleet but things aren't that far off from transitioning to snow earlier. Once again, speaking verbatim based on just the 18z GFS. 

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What does this say for Houston?

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You Guys are fricked!

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OH MY frickING GOD

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Probably not. I saw more wrecks last time it snowed a bunch than I saw in the ice bomb last week.

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In the event of an ice storm - ice actually building up on tree limbs, weighing them down causing them to fall on power lines, cars, or people, and when the ice accumulates on the roadways - it's much worse than snow. Although, when snow gets packed down on roads & re-freezes, it has the same effect as ice.

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Of course. Ice storms are always much worse, causing many more problems than just snow.

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That's what I thought. But I fully expect there to be a bunch of posts here saying this was all overblown if it turns out to "only" be ice and not 6 inches of snow.

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You Guys are fricked!


Sorry.

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frick, I need to stock up on green and red tea and order my pizza and Chinese food.

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You Guys are fricked!

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Doubt its been posted but the 18z gfs ensembles shifted a little nw with the precip shield and are now showing much of se LA receiving as much as 1.5 of precip. That has the potential to be devasting with a half to one inch of ice and upwards of 6 inches of snow. This could get really bad in a hurry.

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Was just looking at that. The GEFS is crazy wet! It will be interesting to see what comes in with the 21z SREF.

The 18z GFS & GEFS are probably worst (best if you like this kind of stuff) case scenario for much of S. Louisiana. I would be surprised if we see anything wetter than that and would probably bet on 00z backing off the totals.

Alright so give me a breakdown as to what to expect (sort of) in Lake Charles.

And what these models are saying this far west.

OT meteorologists.. will this miss houma again?