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Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:28 pm to rds dc
This post was edited on 6/29/21 at 9:29 pm
Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:48 pm to Scoper
Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:53 pm to Duke
We decided to come home this week and not take chances.
Posted on 6/30/21 at 12:22 am to Bobby OG Johnson
00z GFS sends 97L right up the tip of the Florida Peni......nsula at 1003mb.
Trend track: that is farther East than the 18z run that had it on the panhandle, and just a little stronger by 2mb. That's three GFS runs in a row that have it being a Florida storm. Looks to be a messy system coming off of Cuba.
Trend track: that is farther East than the 18z run that had it on the panhandle, and just a little stronger by 2mb. That's three GFS runs in a row that have it being a Florida storm. Looks to be a messy system coming off of Cuba.
Posted on 6/30/21 at 12:25 am to LegendInMyMind
It's not going to be an easy ride through the Caribbean for the system, so weakness coming off Cuba ain't a surprise.
Posted on 6/30/21 at 6:56 am to Duke
Posted on 6/30/21 at 7:00 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 6/30/21 at 9:50 am to Bobby OG Johnson
06z GFS brings it from the tip to the taint region of Florida, Westward shift from 00z. And, a significant drop in pressure to 977mb at landfall.
Posted on 6/30/21 at 9:54 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
tip to the taint region of Florida
For those who aren't familiar with Florida anatomy... where would this be?
Posted on 6/30/21 at 9:55 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Next week is gonna be another one of those hyper vigilant storm weeks
Posted on 6/30/21 at 9:55 am to SlidellCajun
Time to load up on bread and frozen breast milk.
Posted on 6/30/21 at 10:03 am to LSUfanNkaty
quote:
those who aren't familiar with Florida anatomy... where would this be?
Between the balls and the anus
Posted on 6/30/21 at 10:05 am to deltaland
AKA Flora-Bama to Mexico Beach.
Posted on 6/30/21 at 10:06 am to LSUfanNkaty
quote:
For those who aren't familiar with Florida anatomy... where would this be?
The very end of the peninsula is the tip. Then, you have the kind of bulbous head part on the Gulf side of the the peninsula. Then there's the dip back East....that's the taint of Florida. Evidently, though, in this analogy, Florida lost its balls in a drunken gator wrestling accident.
Posted on 6/30/21 at 10:32 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 6/30/21 at 10:33 am to LSUfanNkaty
quote:
For those who aren't familiar with Florida anatomy... where would this be?
How can you not know this? Turn Florida sideways, look at its anatomy. What does it show you?
Posted on 6/30/21 at 11:00 am to Oates Mustache
12z GFS is running, and it has it a good bit stronger when it arrives in the Lesser Antilles. It is down to 983mb from 991mb on the last run.
And, it looks like it recovers it better/quicker after interaction with Haiti/DR than the last run.
Stronger as it skirts the coast of Southern Cuba at 994mb vs 999mb last run.
Then, turns it North right across Western Cuba, yet it recovers again and misses the tip of Florida to drop it to 990mb vs 996mb on the last run. That would put it potentially strengthening into a Florida land fall. Drops to 986mb as it skirts the Florida Peninsula West coast. Then landfall at 990mb somewhere around the bulbous head region of Florida, farther South than earlier with less time over open water and more land interaction as it stays right offshore before hooking back East.
It looks like Haiti/DR will play a key role. If it can stay South of that island and organize/strengthen into a Cuban land fall, it stands the best chance of being a pretty stout storm. Let's see if future runs put it over the island and help to tear it apart more.
Also of note, this run takes it across FL and back into the Atlantic where it skirts the GA coast, and makes landfall in the Carolinas as a stronger storm than it was in FL.
And, it looks like it recovers it better/quicker after interaction with Haiti/DR than the last run.
Stronger as it skirts the coast of Southern Cuba at 994mb vs 999mb last run.
Then, turns it North right across Western Cuba, yet it recovers again and misses the tip of Florida to drop it to 990mb vs 996mb on the last run. That would put it potentially strengthening into a Florida land fall. Drops to 986mb as it skirts the Florida Peninsula West coast. Then landfall at 990mb somewhere around the bulbous head region of Florida, farther South than earlier with less time over open water and more land interaction as it stays right offshore before hooking back East.
It looks like Haiti/DR will play a key role. If it can stay South of that island and organize/strengthen into a Cuban land fall, it stands the best chance of being a pretty stout storm. Let's see if future runs put it over the island and help to tear it apart more.
Also of note, this run takes it across FL and back into the Atlantic where it skirts the GA coast, and makes landfall in the Carolinas as a stronger storm than it was in FL.
This post was edited on 6/30/21 at 11:32 am
Posted on 6/30/21 at 11:30 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
How can you not know this? Turn Florida sideways, look at its anatomy.
never really thought to look at Florida in that way lol
Posted on 6/30/21 at 11:36 am to LegendInMyMind
Too far out to speculate, which is what your famous for…..
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