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Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland
Posted on 5/17/18 at 7:55 am
Posted on 5/17/18 at 7:55 am
This post was edited on 5/28/18 at 10:06 pm
52
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:08 am to rds dc
The experimental GFS has been performing pretty well and has recently avoided some of the big dips in accuracy that plague the current version.
There is also an experimental Euro currently running. All four models are on the chart.
There is also an experimental Euro currently running. All four models are on the chart.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:09 am to rds dc
Still a lot of time to alter the forecast, but this may be a sign of things to come.
I don’t expect a major hurricane this early in the year, but definitely cannot rule out a tropical storm.
I don’t expect a major hurricane this early in the year, but definitely cannot rule out a tropical storm.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:10 am to rds dc
NHC is forecasting record breaking Caribbean city jokes this season.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:11 am to rds dc
This post was edited on 5/17/18 at 8:15 am
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:24 am to rds dc
This thread explained via gifs from The Office:
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:27 am to rds dc
it will be gone in a few days of model runs
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:37 am to rds dc
Saw that yesterday. Euro wasn't picking up on anything, but GFS was going nuts. Now that Euro and Canadian are on board, I guess I'll be watching every new run and wasting time at work...
Canadian:
The new FV3-GFS model is a little more worrisome for Louisiana:
Chicken, we need a Weather/Hurricane/Tropical Weather board during the season.
Canadian:
The new FV3-GFS model is a little more worrisome for Louisiana:
Chicken, we need a Weather/Hurricane/Tropical Weather board during the season.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:41 am to whodatdude
We will need a little rain in a few weeks. The one they were watching in Florida over the last few days was nothing more than a little rain
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:47 am to whodatdude
quote:
The new FV3-GFS model is a little more worrisome for Louisiana:
that's not "a little worrisome"
a storm just sitting off the coast spinning and dumping rain for hours on end... may as well not even turn on the damn pumps b/c it won't help
Posted on 5/17/18 at 8:50 am to whodatdude
The FV3-GFS would be basically the worst case scenario for southeast Louisiana. I know you can never say never with mother nature but i don't put much stock in models at that time frame plus i don't even know if the waters could support a system like that this early.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 9:01 am to lsuman25
Well, sure. 14 days out is a lifetime in terms of projection and no real model has much accuracy in that timeframe.
Also, the FV3-GFS is really new and doesn't really have a lot of historical data to determine accuracy, but i'm curious how well it will do with this season. But since the surface temperature of the gulf isn't overly hot, I would be seriously surprised if it can get enough energy to jump to a catergory 4 storm.
Also, the FV3-GFS is really new and doesn't really have a lot of historical data to determine accuracy, but i'm curious how well it will do with this season. But since the surface temperature of the gulf isn't overly hot, I would be seriously surprised if it can get enough energy to jump to a catergory 4 storm.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 9:43 am to schwartzy
quote:
Still a lot of time to alter the forecast, but this may be a sign of things to come.
I don’t expect a major hurricane this early in the year, but definitely cannot rule out a tropical storm.
Typically, early season activity isn't really a good indicator for overall activity, since storms take different development pathways later in the season.
For this current model system, there are some factors that favor development like the MJO & KW activity. However, SSTs aren't very impressive and shear looks to be pretty high.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 9:45 am to rds dc
quote:
For this current model system, there are some factors that favor development like the MJO & KW activity. However, SSTs aren't very impressive and shear looks to be pretty high.
it's moments like there where I remember I'm a complete amateur in this meteorology thing
ETA: I'm just now fully understanding what the Weather Channel means by SLIM for severe weather/tornado development
Sheer
Lift
Instability (I think I finally understand what atmospheric 'instability' is though
) Moisture
This post was edited on 5/17/18 at 9:47 am
Posted on 5/17/18 at 9:47 am to whodatdude
A strong category 4 meandering just off the coast of SELA, then slowly looping back right up the River Parishes area would mean almost total destruction from the coast through Baton Rouge from both wind and flooding. Flooding would be exceptionally worrisome with the combined effects of that much rain falling while the surge backs up the Amite and Comite Rivers at the same time.
I got slammed on here last year for suggesting the right storm coming in slowly from the perfect angle would result in actual storm surge flooding in Ascension, Livingston, and EBR parishes. This model run depicts exactly what I was talking about there. Not that this model run will happen, but imagine for a minute it comes to fruition. This is what I was describing.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 9:50 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
but imagine for a minute it comes to fruition.
I'd rather not considering my family is all in the NOLA area
Posted on 5/17/18 at 9:52 am to rt3
quote:
I'd rather not considering my family is all in the NOLA area
Yep, NOLA would be fricked almost Katrina-style in this particular run.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 9:55 am to TDsngumbo
The prospect is absolutely terrifying. Had to carry my 1 year old through thigh high rushing water in 2016. The thought of having to go through that again makes my skin crawl.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 9:58 am to whodatdude
quote:
The prospect is absolutely terrifying. Had to carry my 1 year old through thigh high rushing water in 2016. The thought of having to go through that again makes my skin crawl.
Mine too. frick that shite. If we every have another flood threat on the scale of 2016 again, I'm getting the hell out of my house and going somewhere else. I'm not going through that again. Too stressful staying home watching the water rise to the point of needing to be rescued. My pride was too much back then. Next time I won't have jack shite for pride
Posted on 5/17/18 at 10:06 am to lsuman25
Luckily, models show little skill beyond 7 days for individual systems. That FV3-GFS run would be over 2 feet of rain for much of S. Louisiana.
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