re: Tropical Storm Erika - fat lady has sung, passed out, & getting dry humped

quote:

---

Don't shoot the messenger.

---

You're not the messenger. You're creating the message and you don't know what you're talking about.

hurricane intensity models mean absolutely nothing in a vacuum. that's why they're referred to as "guidance" and not just pasted straight to NHC as the official forecast.

I'm not trashing your evidence... just looking at it from a different viewpoint

I'd say you have a few models that make Erika a major hurricane... but most say it'll max out as either a cat 1... MAYBE a cat 2

Erika is chugging. I wasn't expecting it to potentially be knocking on Florida by Sunday. I've got a Monday morning flight out of there.

quote:

---

Then turn this into a teaching moment. Explain what those images I posted mean. Am I misinterpreting them?

---

ok, let's take a look at your intensity models.

- GHMI, GFDI, and GFTI are all interpolations of the GFDL model, which has the storm on a track to hook out to the Atlantic (it starts the curve too far east, and as I said in a previous post, the 500 mb flow pretty much closes the Carolinas for business unless it hits a very narrow window, which likely involves going over land in Florida)

-HWFI is an interpolation of the HWRF model. This one has the most threatening looking track, so maybe it can raise an eyebrow.. but with the 500mb flow set up as it is...Erika still has to hit a narrow window to be a threat to anything other than the Bahamas where the HWRF stews her as a cat 2.

-IVCN mostly an average of the intensity of the GFDL and the HWRF. It says absolutely nothing about the track.

-NGXI and NVGI are interpolations of the NOGAPS/NAVGEM naval model. It's a decent model but it's not exactly state of the art. Regardless it tracks the storm over Cuba where it intensifies the whole way? How? No matter, it then turns the storm due north where it rapidly intensifies off the coast of Florida and then, we assume, flys out to sea because of the same 500mb feature that I discussed earlier.

-SHI5 is a model that only projects intensities. Does not forecast track at all. So we can't really read anything into that model unless we know a reasonable amount about its track... which we don't because there's so much model disagreement.

So that knocks out 5 of the 8 highest intensity forecasts as mostly meaningless except to Atlantic Islanders and casts significant doubt on the other 3 meaning anything to the US.. especially Carolina as you're so prone to suggest.

Now it is possible that all this could change and the Carolinas could be under the gun.. but as of right now there's not much reason to think they will be.

quote:

---

Now that South Florida is in the cone, even though it's 5 days out, the Florida news hype train is gonna take off, then where does that leave the NHC?

---

a tweet from 1 of my former news co-workers who's now in FL

quote:

---

Katie Johnson ?@Katie_Johnson_
Let's not panic---- but let's get prepared. #TropicalStormErika

---

quote:

---

Let's not panic---- but let's get prepared. #TropicalStormErika

---

agree wholeheartedly

IMO everyone on the gulf/east coast should be prepared at the beginning of the season... at this point all you should do is keep an eye out.

watching Weather Underground on Weather Channel... says Erika's got some strong sheer to the north that's not helping the storm much

but over the coming days it should move from a strong sheer to moderate sheer environment (I'd guess more favorable for development)... but may run into a pocket of strong sheer by the Bahamas

if it does happen to get into the GoM... it seems another pocket of strong sheer may develop over the NC GoM... roughly over Mississippi & Louisiana

WU is now talking about "Katrina's forgotten landfall" as a cat 1 hurricane by Miami

ETA: 10 years ago today

quote:

---

if it does happen to get into the GoM... it seems another pocket of strong sheer may develop over the NC GoM... roughly over Mississippi & Louisiana

---

The way the models are producing this shear is a bit tricky. They have a ridge over the top of the storm with an ULL to the W. A trough pinching off an ULL can lead to all kinds of model issues up and down the column. If that ULL ends up farther W then Erika has a door opened to the eastern Gulf.