re: Tornado! Outbreak Underway New PDS Watch for South LA, MS, & AL

Now that’s a frozen spicy meatball

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Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
Euro control run with an I-10 snow next week. Has not snowed before Christmas since 2004 in these areas ( Widespread coastal Texas White Christmas)

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The 2004 Christmas snow was perfect. Started sleeting around 5pm then by 7 was snowing it’s balls off for a good 3-4 hours. We got a couple inches and Christmas morning looked like a damn post card

That snow event from the graphic JB posted is still 10 days out, 12/22. Wayy too early to forecast it- I know you are just messing though. Only an imbecile would see that and start drawing conclusions

I'm not a weatherman or even a smart man, but I have a very arthritic shoulder that hurts anytime the temp is about to drop and my shoulder is hurting terribly today.

That's the best I can predict.

meanwhile... from inside the heart of tomorrow's tornado threat...

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
I really just want to fast forward to the cold stuff, but we have one more round of severe potential, and it looks like a pretty rough one for our area. There have been some minor changes to my thought process, but the main idea remains the same. Tuesday night looks pretty busy.

The first thing I’m seeing as the highest resolution models start to get in range is the potential for a couple isolated storms to develop across the area as soon as 4:00-5:00 PM Tuesday. These would have severe potential, and we will need to keep a close eye on that timeframe. Beyond that, the much more sure thing is a broken line of supercells, or short line segments of severe thunderstorms that will move through the area in the 6:00 PM to 3:00 AM timeframe. The storms I mentioned above would be ahead of this main batch, but could be just as severe. SPC has highlighted a large part of the area in an enhanced, level 3 of 5 risk for severe weather, and I agree with their thought process on this. They have a hatched tornado threat for most of Central Louisiana, which means there is at least a 10% risk for strong tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Strong tornadoes are EF2 or stronger. Please remember that even when there are risks like this, most areas will not see a tornado, or even anything terribly crazy. You need to be prepared for the potential, but tornadoes are very isolated events. Obviously, when they hit, they can be devastating. Thankfully, the tools we have to diagnose potential, and what’s actually happening via radar are much better than they were when I showed up here 20 years ago.

One other note is that it looks like rain could linger into Wednesday morning. There could even be a few storms, but the severe threat should be out of here as the cold front will make it through. It might add some to the rain totals which should generally be in the 1-3 inch range with the usual mention that there will be isolated higher totals. After this, we flip back to winter, and like I mentioned last night, will probably start having some close calls on the wintry stuff at the very least. I’ll update the severe threat this evening, but think we have the general idea, so it won’t be some massive revelation. I’m mainly watching to see if more models start to jump on board with the afternoon supercells. I’ll update at some point before bedtime.

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this was his update last night focused on the cold blast seemingly set to come

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
I have a love, meh relationship with social media. Selfishly, I want to control my own weather narrative, and be very responsible in doing so. But I do kind of like the loose cannon craziness of it all, and being some sort of voice of reason in it all. I won’t post about this again until after the severe weather threat passes on Tuesday night or very early Wednesday, but the short version is, there is no clear threat for winter weather on Christmas. I do think that there will be at least 2-3 close calls with snow or ice in the 12-17 to 12-31 timeframe.

So what the heck does that mean? Well, it obviously means I have no clue. I’m not going to go and post single model runs for 12 days from now and act like it’s a realistic potential. The swings in models that far out are massive. I’ve been watching extended ensembles, and medium range ensembles for the past couple of weeks, and the trend is toward cold air, and a pretty active pattern. That’s the most basic thing I look for when I’m trying to start wishcasting for snow or anything wintry. With how cold, and long lasting this airmass should be, I’m most definitely thinking there will be close calls for wintry weather that could become real chances. As it stands now, those could become cold, cloudy days, rain and 37 degrees, glorious winter scenes, or anything in between. The one thing I’m pretty much ruling out is any sort of sustained warm air. Models and ensembles are very clear on a cooling trend after this next severe threat that should last through Christmas, and maybe clear into the New Year. So yes, I’m fully aware of anything potentially wintry, and I’m so locked in on it that it’s what I’ll dream about at night. You will be updated when any threats become realistic, which is basically when I think there is at least a 10% chance of something happening. I did post about this yesterday in the subscriber group. I feel I can be a bit more irresponsible over there since I have no chance of “going viral” by posting my long shot thoughts since it’s a private group, and it can’t be shared.

I’ll update the Tuesday night threat in the morning, but wanted to get this off my chest. I really do think Christmas, and the days leading up to it will be chilly at the very least. I know that’s not for everyone, but it’s definitely for me!

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Good. Maybe now I can take out my shotgun and go whack some quackers. Can't do it when it's freaking 84 degrees outside.

Hard to get horses there.

But we can surely get along and allow each other a difference of opinion. I’m not mad that you want ice and frozen pipes

Don’t speak such nonsense in here. We should all pray for winter to rain ice upon us, apparently. No matter the consequences.