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re: Tornado! Outbreak Underway New PDS Watch for South LA, MS, & AL

Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:18 am to
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129061 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:18 am to
oh
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14674 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:23 am to
quote:


On the other hand, if power is out and breastmilk is at risk of spoilage you can simply throw it out on the deck to keep it cool or even freeze it again.

Sometimes, when there is snow on the deck and the power is out, I use it as an opportunity to clean out the fridge. I take everything out of the fridge and line each item up in the snow. When you stand over a two dimensional inventory of your fridge it is really helpful. Nothing can hide in the back. With snow you can just use the deck as your fridge for the next few days. Then you can add everything back to the fridge in an orderly manner when the power is back on.

Good luck this winter!


not going to lie, when I was in Alaska I had an elevated, protected deck...and during the winter when I wanted to clean my freezer or fridge...I would do exactly this
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71335 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:25 am to
quote:

Switching to Tuesday 12z HRRR had a nasty run of messy supercells Tuesday evening. Probably an after dark tornado event for north and central Louisiana.

I've been back and forth on this system. Skinny CAPE, but plenty of shear. Hodographs have looked favorable. Lower levels look surprisingly good. 3 CAPE and 0-3 SRH are much better than I'd expect. CAMs are showing more air between cells than I thought initially. We'll see.

After dark setups always suck.
This post was edited on 12/12/22 at 11:26 am
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175588 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:29 am to
quote:

Skinny CAPE, but plenty of shear.

How December of it
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71335 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:31 am to
I guess I should have said anorexic CAPE. Skinner than normal.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:49 am to
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:50 am to
Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
6692 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:51 am to
Hell naw!
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71335 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:53 am to
Wait, I thought you baws wanted cold?
Posted by Cowboyfan89
Member since Sep 2015
12950 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 11:57 am to
-2...nah, I'm good. That's ridiculous.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
77868 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:00 pm to
So the GFS is a joke.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

So the GFS is a joke.

Canadian trending that way too though... Only goes out 10 days so this is the end of the last model run:
Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
21967 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:02 pm to
This is predicting 1 degree Fahrenheit for br?
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:04 pm to
Its taking into account a bunch of snow and ice on the ground. Without that temps aren't near as low
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
77868 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

Its taking into account a bunch of snow and ice on the ground. Without that temps aren't near as low
Understood, but there is no way the Northshore is getting over 10 inches of snow.
This post was edited on 12/12/22 at 12:35 pm
Posted by crazyLSUstudent
391 miles away from Tiger Stadium
Member since Mar 2012
6036 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:28 pm to
Denver at -17 would be fricking rough
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:32 pm to
This is for all the app watchers that insist on the apps saying what's been said here for days...



and the trend continues....
This post was edited on 12/12/22 at 12:33 pm
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175588 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

Understood, jut there is no way the Northshore is getting over 10 inches of snow.


This run is a good example of runaway chaos theory in a deterministic model. Signals are pointing to it being cold. But it's not going to be below 0. At 300 hours out you'd be more correct on average using the farmer's almanac or climatological data than a GFS deterministic run.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71335 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

So the GFS is a joke

Don't put a whole lot of stake in the precip runs.

Extremely low temperatures, likely not as low as the last run, is not crazy.
This post was edited on 12/12/22 at 12:38 pm
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216037 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 12:41 pm to
Where is that.
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