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Started By
Message
re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley
Posted on 5/26/20 at 10:06 am to Zephyrius
Posted on 5/26/20 at 10:06 am to Zephyrius
quote:
Not going to show the 14 Day image
Just playing the hypothetical game, what is it forecasting currently at that landfall, 973 mb or so?
That would be what, a Category 1?
3
Posted on 5/26/20 at 10:11 am to Zephyrius
There will be waves in Gulf SHores 
Posted on 5/26/20 at 10:15 am to paperwasp
973mb in August/ September is likely a CAT 2.
Models are horrible at predicting intensity and 14 days out a blind squirrel has a better chance at finding the target.
Models are horrible at predicting intensity and 14 days out a blind squirrel has a better chance at finding the target.
Posted on 5/26/20 at 10:27 am to 91TIGER
I hope either/or. Going to the beach house on June 10th.
Posted on 5/26/20 at 12:51 pm to paperwasp
A hypothetical 973 millibar tropical cyclone would equate to around 100 mph Max Wnds.
(1013mb-973 mb) ^ 1/2 * 16
(1013mb-973 mb) ^ 1/2 * 16
This post was edited on 5/26/20 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 5/26/20 at 12:54 pm to Zephyrius
quote:
The pattern keeps it moving into the gulf.
That pattern changes from run to run. One run has it coming into NOLA as a category 2 then the next run has it going into south Florida as a weak depression, then flips back to Louisiana as a weak storm. It flip flops each run with both intensity and location. I thought about making this thread earlier but figured I’d wait another week to see if it was still showing up before posting about it. Can’t tell shite this far out.
This post was edited on 5/26/20 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 5/26/20 at 1:18 pm to TDsngumbo
Exactly, half the runs have had it heading over Cuba and the Bahamas. One had it over Tampa. I think the weather modeling is done by Covi19 forecasters this season.
Posted on 5/26/20 at 1:29 pm to Zephyrius
At least Toya won’t have to worry about the red tape and lawyers for the Hard Rock Demolition it’ll be done free of charge
Another fun fact: if this storm forms next it’ll be named Bertha.
Another fun fact: if this storm forms next it’ll be named Bertha.
This post was edited on 5/26/20 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 5/26/20 at 1:31 pm to Jimmy2shoes
So the beaches get filled with coronavirus just in time for this storm to swing through and pick it up and spread it all over the country like a giant sneeze?
Posted on 5/26/20 at 1:32 pm to PhillyTiger90
Posted on 5/26/20 at 1:41 pm to Zephyrius
What is the beanie weenie situation with the covid supply chain disruption?
Posted on 5/26/20 at 1:52 pm to Zephyrius
Can someone post what it is projected on June 6 or post the link where I can look it up myself?
Posted on 5/26/20 at 1:56 pm to deeprig9
We could but it would be useless this far out. Nothing until two days ahead of time is even remotely accurate and even two days out will still have great inaccuracies.
Posted on 5/26/20 at 1:58 pm to TheWiz
quote:
GFS has it arse-punching New Orleans.
Can happen if you wander too far down Bourbon, or so I have heard.
This post was edited on 5/26/20 at 6:10 pm
Posted on 5/26/20 at 1:59 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
We could but it would be useless this far out. Nothing until two days ahead of time is even remotely accurate and even two days out will still have great inaccuracies.
I'm more interested in the barometric lines around GA, fwiw.
Posted on 5/26/20 at 2:09 pm to deeprig9
quote:
I'm more interested in the barometric lines around GA, fwiw.
Here's the 12z GFS showing a much, much weaker "system" at the same location just to the southwest of NOLA and you can see the barometric lines (isobars) over GA.
The 18z (next update) will start running in a couple hours.
This post was edited on 5/26/20 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 5/26/20 at 2:14 pm to deeprig9
Posted on 5/26/20 at 2:20 pm to TDsngumbo
In the "FWIW" department, the Canadian model shows a strong depression/weak tropical storm northwest of the Yucatan on June 5th heading generally northward but it ends at June 5th.
German model is the weakest, barely showing a somewhat organized disturbance just to the west of the northern coast of the Yucatan on June 3rd.
King Euro doesn't show it at all as of June 5th (end of its run).
Bottom line is this:
Some of the models are seeing something spin up and head either northward into the central Gulf coast or eastward over southern Florida. They're seeing it anywhere from an organized cluster of storms to a weak category 2 hurricane - more than two weeks away. It's the first thing to "track" this season but chances are this will prove to be quite inaccurate and it is way too early to worry about.
German model is the weakest, barely showing a somewhat organized disturbance just to the west of the northern coast of the Yucatan on June 3rd.
King Euro doesn't show it at all as of June 5th (end of its run).
Bottom line is this:
Some of the models are seeing something spin up and head either northward into the central Gulf coast or eastward over southern Florida. They're seeing it anywhere from an organized cluster of storms to a weak category 2 hurricane - more than two weeks away. It's the first thing to "track" this season but chances are this will prove to be quite inaccurate and it is way too early to worry about.
Posted on 5/26/20 at 2:34 pm to BallsEleven
Thanks, what are the dotted red lines, and based on the isobars June 6/7 shouldn't be too windy or stormy on the water in North half of GA, right? Nice and calm?
Posted on 5/26/20 at 2:38 pm to deeprig9
quote:
based on the isobars June 6/7 shouldn't be too windy or stormy on the water in North half of GA, right? Nice and calm?
nothingburger is what you're looking for.
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