re: Severe weather threat continues today for parts of the southeast - Threat is Over.

will i be able to play golf in NO early wed morning???

HIGH RISK

Didn’t want to see the high risk tickling my fanny

Everything is starting to come together. Going to be a long day for some us.

Think the line just came through my part of DFW as it woke my arse up

SPC summary from 1 AM....
[quote] Forecast Discussion SPC AC 170552 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected today and tonight across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the afternoon into the overnight hours. .



..Lower Mississippi Valley to Alabama...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over central NM moving east toward the TX Panhandle. This feature will eject across OK into the Ozark Plateau by the end of the period. Intense large-scale forcing for ascent is currently spreading across the southern High Plains region where deep convection is currently expanding in areal coverage along the dry line/Pacific front as it encounters western edge of moisture plume. This boundary will remain active leading into the start of the day1 period. Strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread the lower MS Valley/central Gulf States during the day as 80kt+ 500mb flow overspreads increasingly moist/buoyant warm sector. Latest model guidance suggests several LLJ segments will increase ahead of the trough, each likely modulating bouts of organized severe thunderstorm clusters/supercells. The primary synoptic low is forecast to track across northeastern OK into southern MO. Significant elevated convection will be noted north of the warm front but ample surface-based buoyancy/shear south of the front should prove favorable for supercells as one LLJ segment focuses across AR into southeast MO ahead of this feature. At the same time, a secondary LLJ will strengthen across MS during the day and become the primary LLJ into the overnight hours over northwestern AL/middle TN. This secondary LLJ appears to be responding to a mid-level speed max that will translate across south-central TX into southern LA during the late evening hours. Of particular interest is the boundary-layer moisture that is now present along the Gulf Coast where lower 70s surface dew points are observed. This air mass will advance north during the day and diurnal heating will allow moderate instability to develop along a corridor from southern LA through central MS into western AL where SBCAPE should be on the order of 2500 J/kg. While the primary 500mb speed max will likely maintain convection along the surging Pacific front over southeast TX, an uncapped, buoyant air mass downstream over MS/AL should prove favorable for discrete supercell development ahead of the primary short wave. Forecast soundings across the HIGH Risk exhibit profiles favorable for strong, long-track tornadoes, and this is especially true from northeast LA through northern MS into northwest AL.[/quote]

This has me nervous to drive from NOLA to Fairhope late this afternoon.

Can hear Thunder in the distance.

quote:

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Not Central?

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The high risk doesn’t extend into central AL at this time, but most of Alabama is in a moderate risk so the threat is still major in AL even outside of the high risk. I expect the high risk to be expanded further east later today.