re: Severe weather threat continues today for parts of the southeast - Threat is Over.

Originally they had slight, moderate, and high. They decided to add marginal and enhanced in 2014.

This is the SPC discussion from the convective outlook.

...Lower MS Valley into AL/GA...

Multiple rounds of intense, severe convection will be possible,
mainly across MS/AL on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours.
Convection will intensify along the eastward progressing cold front
across central and eastern AR/LA during the late morning/afternoon
as it encounters effective shear greater than 60 kt, MLCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Fast storm
motion, with 925-700 mb flow greater than 40 kt will support
widespread damaging gusts with some gusts greater than 65 kt
expected. Large hail (some greater than 2 inch in diameter,
especially from the AR/MO border into northern LA, southwest TN and
northern/central MS) is also expected with this activity.

Further east across northeast LA into MS and AL a more concerning
scenario appears possible. Most forecast guidance agrees that a
round of afternoon thunderstorms are expected. This activity is
expected to develop in weaker ascent, driven by heating and low
level warm advection. Strong 0-3 km shear near 30-40 kt will already
be in place with enlarged low level hodographs evident. Given weaker
forcing, this activity will have an opportunity to remain more
discrete and any cell will quickly become a supercell capable of
producing strong tornadoes. As a 40-50 kt low level jet increases
around 00-03z, intense supercells are expected to advance eastward
along with the cold front across MS and into AL overnight. This will
bring a second round of significant severe storms capable of intense
tornadoes, large hail and intense damaging winds across much of
MS/AL. If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk
could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z
tonight.

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Awesome. The one day I have to drive BR to morgan city then lafayette for work.

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If you’re starting in Baton Rouge I think you’d be fine doing the drive.

You North AL folks, the NWS Huntsville just Tweeted this:

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[1 PM] Confidence continues to increase that a long duration, widespread severe weather event is likely tomorrow across the area, with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. A few tornadoes could be strong and long-tracked. Please stay tuned and make preparations now. #HUNwx LINK

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Based on 12z guidance, if I was going to draw a high it would be centered on a line from Monroe to Tupelo.

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rds dc

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Been nice knowing you baws

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Considering there's what? One "high" forecast a year?

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Maybe one every 2-3 years at least in this area

Memphis is going to get some heavy storms today.

Wasn’t too nervous about the weather, and don’t generally get nervous about severe weather, but I’m starting to get nervous now for up here in Monroe, since they updated the threat to moderate. Got an uneasy feeling about tomorrow. Stay safe baws