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re: Severe Weather Thread: 4/17 --Extra Bonus Easter Edition-- North LA and Northshore

Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:32 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71464 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:32 pm to
quote:

What am I likely looking at here Wednesday on a scale of nothingburger to April 27, 2011

For people who ride the roof ridge during a tornado warning just to get a better view, two blonde ones above a Nothingburger.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71464 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:34 pm to
quote:

The cap should be there, but a front from the NW could end up giving enough of a kick to fire storms off.

Yeah, I'm not a 100% believer in tomorrow. If I'm a chaser headed West anyway, I'd chill in Eastern Arkansas and wait, though.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71464 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:36 pm to
In all seriousness, though, this may be the best Plains setup we've seen in a while. I haven't dove into the Eastern threat yet. Duke may hit on that later, but I'm not the one to really comment on a forecast setup.
This post was edited on 4/10/22 at 5:54 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:45 pm to
Id just end up in Kansas and wait for Tuesday if Im a chaser.
Posted by Pisco
Mayfield, Kentucky
Member since Dec 2019
4294 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:52 pm to
Oh joy. I turn 41 tomorrow and get to look forward to this week. Wednesday should be an entertaining day/night.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71464 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:54 pm to
quote:

Id just end up in Kansas and wait for Tuesday if Im a chaser.

What do you have against Arkansas, baw? What has it ever done to you?
Posted by wfallstiger
Wichita Falls, Texas
Member since Jun 2006
14699 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 6:03 pm to
Locals anticipate a Tuesday 3PMish start up for us...just ahead of the dry line which will be a tad West of us.
Posted by WhuckFistle
Member since Jul 2015
3352 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 6:33 pm to
Hey Duke, Legend, Boat… how fricked am I? This is from Reed Timmer.


This post was edited on 4/10/22 at 6:33 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 6:35 pm to
Writing about it now, but it's a conditional risk. Which means, if storms fire they could produce strong tornadoes but there's uncertainty on storms firing.

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71464 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 6:48 pm to
I'm not sold on the threat for tomorrow afternoon/evening. It should stay capped with your your average thunderstorms firing during that time. That said, if you get sun earlier in the day with some storms firing into the afternoon, that cap could break. The conditional threat is there, but it is conditional.

Duke wouldn't make a play on it. He'd head West. I, though, have nothing against the great state of Arkansas and would hang around to see if something fires.

ETA: Either way, it wouldn't be a bad idea to find cover for your vehicles. There's a hail risk with the storms tomorrow.
This post was edited on 4/10/22 at 6:50 pm
Posted by Hawgeye
tFlagship Brothel
Member since Jun 2009
32428 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 7:13 pm to
Curious about Tulsa metro. Lots of national chatter on this early week stuff, but locals aren’t sounding the alarms like some chasers/weather folks on twitter.

Basically telling us hail and wind threat with severe stuff.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71464 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 7:15 pm to
quote:

Basically telling us hail and wind threat with severe stuff.

I mean......yeah.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 7:17 pm to
Tulsa's tricky. I think they generally avoid the Monday threat due to the timing of the front, since the upper levels are not helpful to storms. Brings the risk more into Arkansas due to front position and timing.

Tuesday is high ceiling but uncertainty if anything fires. Any supercells that fire Tuesday, look the frick out because the atmosphere wants violence.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146280 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 7:22 pm to
quote:

Tuesday is high ceiling but uncertainty if anything fires. Any supercells that fire Tuesday, look the frick out because the atmosphere wants violence.

sounds like a 1st round NBA prospect
This post was edited on 4/10/22 at 7:23 pm
Posted by Hawgeye
tFlagship Brothel
Member since Jun 2009
32428 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 7:29 pm to
quote:

I mean......yeah


Oklahoma folks are different…hail and wind don’t cause a local stir.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71464 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 7:59 pm to
quote:

Oklahoma folks are different…hail and wind don’t cause a local stir.

Meanwhile, down in Dallas they crank the sirens for lightning.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146280 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 8:07 pm to
quote:

Meanwhile, down in Dallas they crank the sirens for lightning.

I thought I heard somewhere that a lot of municipalities are starting to turn on tornado sirens for severe thunderstorm warnings with significant hail possibilities or a "tornado possible" tag
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42867 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 8:10 pm to
Anything radar indicated will get the sirens
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 8:11 pm to
quote:

Anything radar indicated will get the sirens




Seems an overly aggressive standard but then again, sirens really shouldn't be a first line warning system anyway.
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
38177 posts
Posted on 4/10/22 at 8:21 pm to
quote:

Id just end up in Kansas and wait for Tuesday if Im a chaser.

I’m contemplating going out tbh.
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