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Posted on 4/9/22 at 8:15 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
On a semi-related note, I'm studying on how to forecast hail from a skew-t. I've never really tried to understand it/figure it out. I figured I needed to.
It is interesting, because too much low level shear can actually be a hinderance. The big thing is getting good instability in that -10 C to -30 C range. For hail, you want to have enough updraft to hang the growing hailstone in this area for as long as possible (increase the residence time). Ideally it will be reasonably low too, as not to melt it too much on the way down.
quote:
It’s Spring. There will be thunderstorms and rain weekly. Water is wet
This baw got it all figured out. Water is in fact wet. Gonna scribble that down in the ole notebook next to the derivation of the QG omega equation.
This post was edited on 4/9/22 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 4/9/22 at 8:19 pm to Duke
And not too much precipitable water that it impedes the updraft.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 8:24 pm to LegendInMyMind
tfw you realize all the images you made were from yesterday's GFS. 
Posted on 4/9/22 at 8:49 pm to Duke
Hey....look on the bright side, you may have another run in that you can use.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 8:54 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Hey....look on the bright side, you may have another run in that you can use.
Don't try and make this better.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 8:56 pm to Duke
It sucks, I know. Probably won't be the last time something like that happens, though.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 9:10 pm to LegendInMyMind
Good news, models at least mostly agree on timing.
Bad news...it remains a really difficult forecast.
Bad news...it remains a really difficult forecast.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 9:16 pm to Duke
quote:
Bad news...it remains a really difficult forecast.
Of course.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 9:22 pm to Duke
quote:
Water is in fact wet.
There has been some debate about this. Is water wet? Or does it make things wet?
Posted on 4/9/22 at 9:33 pm to Duke
Wooo in the orange for day 4! #LoveToSeeIt
Posted on 4/9/22 at 9:36 pm to Pedro
Ive seen some model soundings in eastern kansas with the STP line at the top of the EF4 box.
Which, you know, not the best.
Which, you know, not the best.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 9:40 pm to Duke
Driving from Little Rock to Branson Monday morning
Am I fricked or is it gon be wet?
Am I fricked or is it gon be wet?
Posted on 4/9/22 at 9:41 pm to jamboybarry
Monday isn't that scary looking really.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 9:42 pm to Duke
Thanks baw
Posted on 4/9/22 at 9:44 pm to jamboybarry
quote:
Am I fricked
Depends on if you drive fast enough to save gas.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 10:16 pm to Duke
Stolen from WxTwitter.
On this day in 1953 the first ever tornado was detected on radar:
This pic was taken with a 35mm camera.
On this day in 1953 the first ever tornado was detected on radar:
This pic was taken with a 35mm camera.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 10:20 pm to Duke
The plains tornados are the best. They rip through wheat fields instead of neighborhoods
Posted on 4/9/22 at 10:26 pm to Abstract Queso Dip
quote:
The plains tornados are the best. They rip through wheat fields instead of neighborhoods
This. I want my tornados where the max rating can only be EF3, because it misses all structures.
Sidebar: Just checked into the russia thread. It has become the rain wrapped nocturnal tornado of threads.
Posted on 4/9/22 at 11:49 pm to Duke
quote:
Just checked into the russia thread. It has become the rain wrapped nocturnal tornado of threads.
That one dude has already had three alters and his original account banned.
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