President Biden’s Department Of Energy Just Affirmed Much More Oil And Natural Gas

quote:

---

“We believe it is highly unlikely that oil demand will decline meaningfully over the next decade, even with a stronger push by world governments toward net-zero emissions. However, global supply could fall well short of demand over the next five years amid growing pressures to slow investment, setting the stage for an unprecedented spike in oil prices,” BMO Markets, October 2021

---

quote:

---

The U.S. Department of Energy’s International Energy Outlook 2021 was just released on October 6.

It’s a long-range forecast (2020-2050) that comes from our National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Along with the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Model, NEMS is the most vital energy outlook of them all – not from the Sierra Club, not from ExxonMobil, not a Koch conspiracy.

Importantly coming under President Biden’s Department of Energy (i.e., under an administration that has the most aggressive renewable energy and electric car agenda in American history), our latest modeling still confirms what all previous administrations have: oil and natural gas will remain the foundation of our gigantic energy complex.

In fact, under the baseline scenario (which, importantly, avoids speculation and models out current policy and technological trends) oil and gas consumption are projected to surge (see graphs).

Given all that we keep hearing from most of the media and our politicians, experts modeling “more oil and gas” must come as a complete shock.

Or, maybe not so much: after more than a decade of Herculean gains for renewables and nearly six years after the Paris Climate Agreement, oil and gas still supply ~65% of the world’s energy and ~70% of U.S. energy.

---

quote:

---

It’s a really big world out there, and it’s only getting bigger: from 2020 to 2050, the U.S. Department of Energy has the world adding another 1,935 million people and $87 trillion in economic expansion.

No wonder then that the U.S. Department of Energy has global energy demand rising another 47% over the next 30 years, with hard-to-displace oil staying the world’s most crucial fuel.

---

quote:

---

Even the primary oil major that strongly promotes a shift to renewables (despite losing money on them) is about to be proven so wrong.

I always said that BP’s prediction of peak oil demand in 2019 was more based in public relations than fact – I’m afraid that the demonization of oil is making some of its sellers say things that they probably know aren’t true.

Oil and gas companies, you see, sell products that are so essential to our daily lives that they don’t have to promote themselves like renewables and other competitors do.

A real shocker, I know: the U.S. Department of Energy reports that oil demand will hit record levels next year, at 101.5 million b/d.

We are already seeing a global energy crisis and skyrocketing prices as the “we must stop investing in oil and gas” fantasy is violently colliding with reality: rebounding demand from Covid-19 for indispensable sources of energy.

---

quote:

---

Far too many have confused Covid-19 energy demand destruction with a change in consumer behavior.

But, it’s really as simple as you think.

The 2020 drop in oil and gas demand (coal as well) had little to do with the Energy Transition but with the lockdowns and economic destruction caused by Covid-19.

Indeed, the International Energy Agency’s recent call to stop new oil and gas development to meet 2050 net-zero carbon goals will do little to reduce demand but will cause a huge supply shortfall to spike prices and economic dislocation.

We’re already seeing the devastating repercussions of “not producing” in the name of climate.

---

quote:

---

If we don’t invest in new oil and gas supply, we’re sure to bring a less reliable energy system, more volatility, and higher prices – truly a deadly concoction that will make the Energy Transition politically untenable.

Today’s surging cooling, heating, and food prices are a humanitarian catastrophe and are already creating a great “rethink” so early on in our Energy Transition path.

---

quote:

---

With airplanes, heavy trucking, and petrochemicals compensating for any lost demand from electric cars, the impact of climate change policies on oil needs are more likely to materially impact oil demand growth, not on absolute demand itself (see BMO quote above).

While I do think that a case could be made that global oil demand will peak in the 2030s and then plateau (i.e., don’t believe those telling you of a looming precipitous drop in oil use), it’s not realistic to speculate the same thing for natural gas.

Most ironically, more gas, not less, will be needed as we build-out wind and solar capacity, which explains why our greenest state, California, is now building five new gas plants to “avoid blackouts.”

Intermittent wind and solar are surely a huge part of our energy-climate solutions but more dependable and flexible gas will stay an indispensable tool for balancing electricity markets, and gas is an input for a variety of other uses, such as industrial manufacturing.

---