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rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
14507 posts
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
The most interesting thing with this potential system (at this time) is that the models are trying to spin it up from a MCS (complex of thunderstorms) that formed over Missouri today. The vort max generated by this MCS tracks SE into the northern Gulf and merges with a stalled frontal boundary. That is a lot of "what ifs" that make it basically impossible to predict anything at this point.



NorthEndZone
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2008
5257 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
If I recall correctly, hurricane Danny in 1997 formed in a similar way this time of July as Thunderstorms rolled through SE LA into the central gulf. A few days later DANNY spun up south of Grand Isle and tracked slowly NE to Mobile Bay and stalled dumping 30 inches of rain over the Mobile Bay Area.


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80
East Coast Band
Alabama Fan
Member since Nov 2010
38287 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
It'll just keep going in circles for months


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Wishnitwas1998
Tennessee Fan
where TN, MS, and AL meet
Member since Oct 2010
39326 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
That’s a wild arse scenario I didn’t even know was possible


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rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
14507 posts
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Euro eventually gets this down into the low 980s but not much support from any of the other models for a storm to develop. The GFS and Canadian don't develop anything and both were recently upgraded. However, the Euro was also just upgraded



East Coast Band
Alabama Fan
Member since Nov 2010
38287 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
dammit, I'm not wanting hurricanes in July. Especially ones from Missouri. That's what September and the Caribbean are for.


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rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
This NCEP product tends to be overly aggressive with storm development and even it is only showing 30-40%.



NorthEndZone
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2008
5257 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
This morning's GFS may be starting to get onboard with the Euro. It shows a broad, weak Low over Terrebonne Bay on Friday evening.



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WylieTiger
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2006
8087 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
I wish. It's rained once over the last 6 weeks at my house in Mandeville.


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50
rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
14507 posts
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Euro not as strong as 00z but there is growing support across the other global models at 12z.

This post was edited on 7/6 at 1:42 pm


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DeCat ODahouse
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2017
203 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Have habitually checked the National Hurricane Center map page during H season for many years. First time I've ever them mark "X" for a potential for development over Tennessee?!
Wondering if it is that rare or is it that in past years they did not mark potential so early?
Hoping RDS will enlighten...

NHC Graphic map


Mudminnow
LSU Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
32601 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Thanks for the info and updates


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00
OldSouth
LSU Fan
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
9582 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

Wondering if it is that rare or is it that in past years they did not mark potential so early?


I think it’s both.


CapperVin
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2013
9366 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Wish casters out in force already. Hopefully this thing dissipates as a lot of families have vacations planned for that week and it would be terrible for the trips to be interrupted. Including me. This thing will be nothing but afternoon thunderstorms so thread can be deleted


GEAUXT
USA Fan
Member since Nov 2007
25198 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

We really don’t need rain either


At my house in Mandeville it has not rained in roughly 3 weeks. Several lines and pop ups have come through but they always magically break up around my house.


OldSouth
LSU Fan
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
9582 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

Wish casters out in force already.


Really? I haven’t noticed that in this thr..
quote:

This thing will be nothing but afternoon thunderstorms so thread can be deleted


Oh, I see it.


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90
Roll Tide Ravens
Alabama Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
8261 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
I’m literally praying against this thing. I leave for the beach on the 13th.


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70
dboy8713
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Aug 2011
220 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
That’s because some a-hole has been letting Freon out into the atmosphere somewhere in your area for years. It may never rain again. Sending prayers.


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10
TigerTatorTots
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
74902 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

At my house in Mandeville it has not rained in roughly 3 weeks. Several lines and pop ups have come through but they always magically break up around my house.

It literally rained in the neighborhood across the street from me the other day yet not a drop here for multiple weeks. My water bill last month was $150 and my grass is still browning even with the sprinkler system running each morning this month


lsuman25
LSU Fan
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
28701 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is
forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Thereafter, upper-level winds support some development of this
system while it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast
through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake
This post was edited on 7/7 at 6:49 am


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