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Started By
Message
Mortgage applications/buyer demand dropped to a 28-year low
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:52 pm
quote:
Mortgage Applications to buy a house just collapsed to an index level of 147
That's the lowest level of buyer demand in 28 YEARS.
Lower than anything we saw in the 2008 Crash.
Down 41% from last year.
quote:
Why is Mortgage Demand collapsing so much?
Because both Home Prices AND Mortgage Rates are way too high.
Creating a situation where the monthly payment for a homebuyer (Mtg+Tax+Insurance) is now over $2,500/month.
In the 2006-07 Bubble it peaked at $1,400/month.
quote:
And Income Growth has NOT kept up with these increase in the cost to buy house.
Right now the House Payment / Median Income Ratio is 40%.
Meaning the typical American family CANNOT AFFORD to buy a house.
This isn't a "choice". It's simple math.
quote:
Which makes the propaganda being spewed about a "recovery" in the Housing Market absolutely laughable.
Nothing in the fundamental data supports a recovery.
In fact, quite the opposite when you consider a Recession and increased foreclosures are likely on the horizon.
The default rate on FHA loans is going up fast right now.
Currently it's visible in the 30-day default rate.
But soon it could spread to 60 and 90-day defaults, which would be what triggers foreclosure filings.
Good Twitter Thread
29
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:55 pm to stout
My uncle is a realtor in Texas and he said aside from the rates as you mentioned, people still think they can get 2020/2021 money for their house and they just sit for months.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:56 pm to stout
You would be crazy to buy now imo
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:56 pm to stout
quote:
It's simple math.
..or in this case, meth.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:56 pm to stout
So do not buy a house at this time?
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:56 pm to stout
Does this mean the price of houses will go down?
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:56 pm to Hawgnsincebirth55
quote:
Does this mean the price of houses will go down?
Something has to give and the Fed is not cutting rates anytime soon
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:57 pm to Areddishfish
Houses in my neighborhood are still selling for $30,000 more than they were in 2020
I’m pissed I’m going to potentially miss that boat
I’m pissed I’m going to potentially miss that boat
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:57 pm to Areddishfish
Have a neighbor that doesn’t understand why his house hasn’t sold. Well it’s overpriced and dated but he refuses to believe it and it’s been several months. Doesn’t think he should concede on price Good ole overvaluing your own home syndrome.
Good ole overvaluing your own home syndrome. Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:57 pm to Areddishfish
quote:can confirm. Some guy tried selling me a house last summer for 250k whereas I felt like paying 180 would’ve been over paying. Just a 3 bed 2 bath with a man cave attached and an in ground pool. Nothing spectacular
My uncle is a realtor in Texas and he said aside from the rates as you mentioned, people still think they can get 2020/2021 money for their house and they just sit for months.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:00 pm to stout
Recession Threat = [Imminent] - Elapsed
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:00 pm to stout
quote:
And Income Growth has NOT kept up with these increase in the cost to buy house.
But we’ve been told by some here it’s just millennials buying too many luxury items to save up for a house.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:01 pm to Areddishfish
quote:
people still think they can get 2020/2021 money for their house
Q1/Q2 of 2022 was bat shite crazy here in Austin.
Bat.
shite.
Crazy.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:01 pm to Hawgnsincebirth55
quote:
Just a 3 bed 2 bath with a man cave attached and an in ground pool. Nothing spectacular
Houses like that in Southdowns are asking for 400k. Crazy
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:03 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Q1/Q2 of 2022 was bat shite crazy here in Austin.
Bat.
shite.
Crazy.
I tried to tell my friend if he wanted to get out of Pflugerville he missed the boat already
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:11 pm to stout
That's why I'm doordashing on the side. Next year may be even worse. I can live off of closing maybe a loan or two a month, but I want to wipe out all of my debt so I could make it a few months without if I needed to. Many many people will drop out of the business if it gets that bad.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:12 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
Many many people will drop out of the business if it gets that bad.
Sort of like the mass exodus of people that left being a RE agent and a mortgage broker in 2008
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:16 pm to VermilionTiger
quote:
I’m pissed I’m going to potentially miss that boat
Sold our house in April 2020 for $439K. People who bought it spent $100K remodeling and finishing the unfinished part of the basement.
Sold it in June 2022 for $619K.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:21 pm to stout
I don't care what you say...we are not in a recession.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:23 pm to stout
Realtors and lenders made life changing money the last 2 years. Hope they saved some of it.
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