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Loop current and hurricanes
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:37 pm
Some of you might have seen the article that came out a few days ago about the loop current and the similar pattern being seen from 2005 to today. The study points out that we are seeing a similar heating up of the GOM loop current to what we saw at this point in 2005 and we all know 2005 was a really bad year for hurricanes. The similarity points to big concerns for what we are facing for 2022’s hurricane season.
My question for the weather gurus- is this an accurate assessment?
Is the loop current the main or only element in what we should be considering for our season?
Loop current LINK
My question for the weather gurus- is this an accurate assessment?
Is the loop current the main or only element in what we should be considering for our season?
Loop current LINK
This post was edited on 5/20/22 at 12:39 pm
11
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:38 pm to SlidellCajun
Warm water is only part of the equation baw
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:40 pm to Cosmo
quote:
s by Cosmo
Warm water is only part of the equation baw
Atmospheric conditions are the most important factor.
If the atmosphere isn’t right, the loop current doesn’t matter.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:47 pm to doubleb
quote:
Atmospheric conditions are the most important factor. If the atmosphere isn’t right, the loop current doesn’t matter.
So what the hell is the article talking about!?
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:49 pm to SlidellCajun
Doesn’t matter we all are going to die.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:50 pm to SlidellCajun
It’s fear porn
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:56 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
So what the hell is the article talking about!?
When a tropical storm passes over giant eddies, it can explode... when Cousin Eddie emptied his shitter into the storm drain, it exploded. Eddie has 5 letters, so does the word Seven. There were 7 major storms in 2005. 2005F is 1369.261 Kelvin (or is it Kelvins?). This number also happens to be the exact number of times someone used the :omg onoz: gif before Chicken banned people for using it in storm threads.
hope that helps.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:59 pm to Slagathor
quote:
someone used the :omg onoz: gif
This one?
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:04 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
So what the hell is the article talking about!?
Article is from a leftist article aggregation site. Thats what you need to know
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:06 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
So what the hell is the article talking about!?
A storm with good atmospheric conditions will strengthen if the atmospheric conditions remain good and the water temperature rises. But an unhealthy storm that say is being sheared or has poor atmospheric aloft isn’t going to explode because water temperatures are higher. It could strengthen or help it get better organized but you won’t suddenly see a Cat 4 storm where a lip sided tropical storm was.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:16 pm to SlidellCajun
Clickbaity.
Hurricanes need light enough shear to develop, water temperature can help fight shear to some degree. Hot water lets more convection fire. Storm will fire that shite upshear and try to wrap it around. Its what Michael did until the trough hit the sweet spot where it helped Michael explode.
But note, it still took shear dropping an a pop of diffluence aloft to send Michael into the elite hurricanes.
Hell, last October the Atlantic was toasty and nothing happened.
So a hot patch in the Gulf increases the risk, if we get a storm there with decent upper level support. Also, no dry air for it to pull in.
Hurricanes need light enough shear to develop, water temperature can help fight shear to some degree. Hot water lets more convection fire. Storm will fire that shite upshear and try to wrap it around. Its what Michael did until the trough hit the sweet spot where it helped Michael explode.
But note, it still took shear dropping an a pop of diffluence aloft to send Michael into the elite hurricanes.
Hell, last October the Atlantic was toasty and nothing happened.
So a hot patch in the Gulf increases the risk, if we get a storm there with decent upper level support. Also, no dry air for it to pull in.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:23 pm to SlidellCajun
I find that that warm, deep water is the most dangerous part of the conditions that have to come together. It’s the reason Ida was so awful.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:30 pm to Duke
quote:
So a hot patch in the Gulf increases the risk, if we get a storm there with decent upper level support. Also, no dry air for it to pull in.
I think I get it.
The deep hot eddy is just a part of the picture needed to help a storm blow up.
If I recall, in 2005, we had 6 storms in the gulf that crossed that hot spot and only 3 blew up. Guessing atmospheric conditions were not right for 3 but we’re right for Katrina, Wilma and Rita.
Question
Can a storm blow up without the hot spot/eddy?
Posted on 5/20/22 at 2:11 pm to SlidellCajun
Someone needs to back off on the power knob for HAARP.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 2:48 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Can a storm blow up without the hot spot/eddy?
If the sea temperature is warm enough (28+c) it can support violent hurricanes. The warm waters are the base building blocks for tropical cyclones. Going from there everything else has to align. So yes they can blow up without there being a “hot spot” but the water still has to be warm enough to hypothetically support it.
This post was edited on 5/20/22 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 5/20/22 at 2:50 pm to SlidellCajun
The gulf will be warm this summer?!
Posted on 5/20/22 at 2:50 pm to SlidellCajun
Can we at least update our hurricane examples, Boomers. Ida hit the loop current last year.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 2:59 pm to The Boat
quote:it'll never be done in time
the loop
Posted on 5/20/22 at 3:09 pm to SlidellCajun
On topic, here’s a link to a Gulf surface temperatures map I’ve been using for a few years. I check it every now and then during summer and winter too.
If anyone has a different or better link, please share.
Gulf temperature map
Posted on 5/20/22 at 3:19 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
So what the hell is the article talking about!?
It’s like how all the Facebook pages were freaking out last week because a single run of the GFS showed a storm 11 days out.
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