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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 8/24/19 at 10:27 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Where did you find a radar shot?
You don’t have access to the mid-Atlantic doppler?
Posted on 8/24/19 at 10:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
Surely he means a microwave pass.
Posted on 8/24/19 at 10:33 pm to rds dc
quote:
NHC has upped 99L to 50% but the strength and track of 98L will play a role in what happens to 99L. As of now, the GFS is breaking off a couple of upper level lows that drop SW towards the Caribbean and eventually shear 99L to death.
Not much has changed with this. It still looks like the most likely outcome is for this system to die as it interacts with the larger islands and gets sheared by an ULL dropping SW from the N. Atlantic.
The upper level feature to watch is currently near Bermuda and will be displaced SW ward, somewhat, by the outflow of 98L as it moves off the the NE. That ULL will continue to drift SW and eventually increase shear on Dorian and then eventually shear it out. This seems like the most likely solution, at this time.
However, the ensembles do highlight another possibility that could be problematic for the Gulf. Models struggle with the motion of ULL lows and if that ULL dropping SW moves more westward then it may not hinder Dorian. Even if that happens, Dorian still has to survive the Islands, which also seems unlikely. Now, if Dorian misses the ULL and moves just north of the islands then it will likely encounter an upper level pattern that will steer it towards the Gulf.
The Euro EPS highlights this as the a trough lifts out and the Atlantic ridge builds back in over the top of Dorian.
If the system were to miss the ULL and the Islands then it would be forced to ride the edge of the Atlantic ridge and probably be steered into the Gulf.
This is an unlikely scenario. However, there is enough ensemble support for this solution that there is a low end chance that Dorian ends up in the Gulf.
Posted on 8/24/19 at 10:35 pm to SippyCup
quote:
quote:
Where did you find a radar shot?
You don’t have access to the mid-Atlantic doppler?
One of the benefits of having a TDs premium account
Posted on 8/24/19 at 10:35 pm to SippyCup
quote:
You don’t have access to the mid-Atlantic doppler?
Apparently I need to up my Allison House subscription...
Posted on 8/24/19 at 10:37 pm to rds dc
While the system is very small there is sustained deep convection right over the center.
Posted on 8/24/19 at 10:38 pm to rds dc
So basically it could or could not come into the Gulf?
Posted on 8/24/19 at 10:43 pm to pwejr88
quote:
So basically it could or could not come into the Gulf?
That is basically always the case at this point. However, a lot of the time we can basically rule the Gulf at this point. If the models had this moving north of the Islands and/or no ULL interaction, then I would be pretty concerned given the Day 7-10 ensemble look at 500mb.
Posted on 8/24/19 at 11:01 pm to rds dc
They need to lock these threads down such that only you can comment in them.
Posted on 8/24/19 at 11:06 pm to Duke
yeah, this is what I meant sorry.
Posted on 8/25/19 at 7:24 am to deuce985
RD, thanks.
Posted on 8/25/19 at 8:56 am to fishfighter
Peej has taught me that meteorology is all about feelings. I have a feeling that this one is coming right by my house. I live west of Disney about 40 miles, so if any of you have plans...
I hope all of you guys using science and technology are right though.
I hope all of you guys using science and technology are right though.
Posted on 8/25/19 at 8:57 am to rds dc
Pretty good agreement b/w the 00z Euro EPS and 06z GEFS of a track into the Caribbean that will send Dorian into a high shear environment. If this holds, the most likely scenario, which hasn't really changed over the last couple of days, is that Dorian gets sheared out and dies as it interacts with the Islands.
This post was edited on 8/25/19 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 8/25/19 at 11:22 am to rds dc
I saw a news report a little bit ago that said it will be about 75 mph before the Dominican Republic and Haiti, then 40 mph afterwards.
Posted on 8/25/19 at 11:41 am to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/23/22 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 8/25/19 at 11:43 am to Yearnt 22
quote:
Providenciales, In Turks and Caicos gonna get hammered? Got a trip at end up September.
It should have passed through by then.
Posted on 8/25/19 at 11:47 am to OysterPoBoy
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/23/22 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 8/25/19 at 11:49 am to Yearnt 22
Begrudgingly going on a cruise to the Bahamas thursday-monday... could be a bit splashy I reckon.
Posted on 8/25/19 at 11:54 am to rds dc
quote:Shearings
Pretty good agreement b/w the 00z Euro EPS and 06z GEFS of a track into the Caribbean that will send Dorian into a high shear environment. If this holds, the most likely scenario, which hasn't really changed over the last couple of days, is that Dorian gets sheared out and dies as it interacts with the Islands.
Nothing more than shearings
Trying to forget those
Shearings above
This post was edited on 8/25/19 at 11:57 am
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