re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

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I had an uncle who rode out Halsey's 1944 typhoon aboard USS Essex, with blue water running over the flight deck. He saw a lot of action, including kamikaze attacks, and said the typhoon was the most scared he'd ever been.

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I’ve never really thought about it, but it seems entirely possible, if not likely, that there is someone in Japan who has seen or experienced:

1. Earthquake
2. Tsunami
3. Typhoon
4. Volcano Eruption
5. Nuclear blast

If so, I hope that person died peacefully in bed surrounded by loved ones.

lived there two years and thankful i only saw 2 lol

Well, there was Tsutomu Yamaguchi, who survived two nuclear blasts and lived to the age of 93.

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91L is getting its act together today.

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It's been able to stay in a low shear envelope. But the Zulu clock soon tolls.

I don't see them doing that to a storm that will be a depression soon then named. Maybe if it was one they missed.

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And if it is amplified I assume it makes our area (GOM) more agreeable? Like pushing the dust and dry air (which are currently hampering storm formation) away.

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Not really

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And if it is amplified I assume it makes our area (GOM) more agreeable? Like pushing the dust and dry air (which are currently hampering storm formation) away.

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Not really. It makes the pattern more wavy is probably the best way to put it. Sometimes that means you get a deep trough (cool air and pushes things away) and sometimes it flexes the Bremuda Ridge (pushes things at you).

The problem is, it is hard to know how the pattern will actually evolve off of this. All I'm really noting is there's a lot of uncertainty in the 7+ day range. By that, I mean more than normal.

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91L is getting its act together today.

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Yea, it had a nice mid-level vort going earlier today and the wave axis was tilting towards vertical, so it looked close. But now it looks like it is struggling with another round of dry air this evening. The upper air recon from this evening is still showing some really dry air around the system.

The 12z HWRF really got 91L cranking pretty fast but it looks like it tried to mix the dry air out too fast.

12z



vs

18z



The difference on the area avg soundings is pretty obvious

12z



18z



Good news for once, it appears that this will recurve regardless of development pace. So many times we watch the models strengthen a system too fast and recurve it and then watch everything slowly shift south and west as the storm fails to develop. Then on top of that, there aren't any real signs of Gulf action over the next week. Beyond that, there is some low-end ensemble support for something in the Gulf but that is way out there in model land.

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Are we about to see the Fujiwhara effect in the Pacific?

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Yes, it's already underway, this gif contains the last 48hrs of data up to 18z today and the remainder of the gif is the 18z model output.

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Here is a good discussion of why the Atlantic hasn’t been conducive to storms this year so far

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The NATL wave breaking is totally random and basically impossible to forecast at any kind of lead time. Hadley cell expansion is something we have been watching for years and is probably a driver in the reduction in MDR storms we have seen over recent years. However, this still doesn't explain the lack of action in the WCAB and Gulf. Possible culprits are the active EPAC, enhanced SW monsoon or even convection over the Indian Ocean. So even a "calm" year generates lots of research opportunities.