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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - 98L Heading Towards S. Texas NHC 10%
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:44 am to TOPAL
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:44 am to TOPAL
quote:
What were the predictions this year? With all the climate change I thought we would have more and more every year.
Everything I heard was predicting a very active season. Seems like all the activity so far has been in the pacific. Safe to say nobody knows shite about the weather?
3
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:44 am to rds dc
quote:
Maybe Things Wake Up by End of Month
I hope I’m misreading the tone on this one.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:49 am to lsufb1912
quote:
Everything I heard was predicting a very active season. Seems like all the activity so far has been in the pacific. Safe to say nobody knows shite about the weather?
Safe to say there's potential for a back loaded season. When mid-season forecasts are updated and the number of storms goes down but ACE goes up, that's the prevailing thought. The good news being that hopefully that means a couple long runners in the MDR that go fishing while racking up ACE.
ETA: Or, the pre-season forecasts are a bust. I think we'd all be fine if a forecast for an active hurricane season actually busts for a change.
This post was edited on 8/12/22 at 9:40 am
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:50 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Everyone is looking to the MDR and it is going to be the Eastern Caribbean waking up first.
The MDR has warmed recently but the SST configuration still isn't ideal and the NATL keeps dumping dry stable into the tropics. Keep that combo going into September and a 2013-like season is in the cards. However, there are plenty of examples of seasons having a lull like this season and then going bonkers come September.
For those not familiar with 2013, all indicators pointed towards an active high impact season and this is what we got:
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:53 am to rds dc
Is that a womans breast squirting titty milk in that pic?
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:53 am to TOPAL
quote:
What were the predictions this year?
As of a week ago, they’re still calling for:
• 14 - 20 named storms
• 6 - 10 hurricanes
• 3 - 5 major hurricanes
Thus far, we’ve had 3 named storms in the Atlantic.
Thanks for the dust, Sahara!
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:55 am to 0x15E
quote:
Otherwise, he's useless around here
It's the OT, we are all useless
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:55 am to rds dc
I like these little Gulf disturbances' this time of the year. I'd much rather release all the Gulf energy though several small storms rather than one big guy.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:56 am to Cosmo
quote:
Texas needs the rain
Those rivers and basins in Texas south and west of say Corpus Christi are historically dependent on tropical storm rainfall. Places like Baffin Bay and the like.
This post was edited on 8/12/22 at 9:00 am
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:57 am to GumboPot
quote:
I like these little Gulf disturbances' this time of the year. I'd much rather release all the Gulf energy though several small storms rather than one big guy.
Of course, there's always the possibility of a 2020 season that sees all the small storms and a few big guys.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:58 am to rds dc
quote:
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:59 am to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/9/23 at 4:50 pm
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:02 am to LegendInMyMind
Was my hope...I'd take one easing over from the Pacific...my preferred
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:06 am to TOPAL
quote:
What were the predictions this year?
Early on they said this would be the strongest, most active season ever. Of course, now they will blame it on climate change and it’s impact on predictive modeling.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:07 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
You seriously started a thread for that?
This has a better chance of development than the blob that NHC highlighted back in the 1st part of July. As others have noted, S. Texas could really use the rain.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:07 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
I've said this for years now, preseason predictions need to fricking go away. They're pretty ridiculous.
I think they hang around to get people to pay attention so I guess there's some value there.
I think they hang around to get people to pay attention so I guess there's some value there.
This post was edited on 8/12/22 at 9:10 am
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:10 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
Early on they said this would be the strongest, most active season ever. Of course, now they will blame it on climate change and it’s impact on predictive modeling.
Anything bad then it’s extreme weather.
If it’s boring then it’s also extreme weather.
This post was edited on 8/12/22 at 9:11 am
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:13 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
I've said this for years now, preseason predictions need to fricking go away. They're pretty ridiculous.
14-20 named storms is like predicting the over under of the LSU season as from 4-10 wins. It’s basically useless; especially since they are so relaxed as to what they call a named storm now.
This post was edited on 8/12/22 at 9:19 am
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:14 am to rds dc
quote:
More Gulf Junk
Paging antiquetiger
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:16 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
will blame it on climate change
Did you not know climate change causes too many hurricanes and seasons with no hurricanes. It also causes season with too much snow and then too little snow. Ice caps are melting, blame climate change. Ice caps are growing, oh well thats because of climate change. Polar bears are not fricking, well thats due to climate change, not the fact that Mrs Polar Bear put on an extra 50 lbs over the summer.
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