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Message
re: Hurricane Season - 91L - Flash Flood Warnings for S. LA, Worst Rain Moving out Later Today
Posted on 6/5/19 at 12:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 6/5/19 at 12:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
Believable under that deep convection. Let's just hope it stays offshore.
1
Posted on 6/5/19 at 2:12 pm to Duke
quote:
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0370 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 146 PM EDT Wed Jun 05 2019 Areas affected...LA/MS/AL Gulf Coast Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 051746Z - 052346Z
Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms within a very moist environment will produce downpours capable of producing hourly totals greater than 2 inches. With several rounds of storms, some localized flash flooding is possible through the afternoon.
Discussion...GOES-East IR imagery this afternoon shows convective clusters around the Louisiana to Alabama Gulf Coasts deepening with the cooling cloud tops. Regional radar from the area several pulse to loosely organized clusters of storms fairly numerous already this afternoon. This activity is working within a very moist environment with the latest GPS TPW product showing values of 2 to 2.3 inches. Instability, despite cloud cover, is still fairly sufficient for destabilization with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Finally, soundings from southern LA show very warm cloud depths of 4-5 km, and also weak flow through the column which should keep storm motions slow. Through this afternoon, this convection should persist with the potential for hourly totals reaching or exceeding 2 inches in the stronger storms. Through 00z, there's potential for 2-4 inch amounts with some higher totals around 5 inches possible, generally across southern/southeast LA into southern/south-central MS and southern AL. The main limiting factor against flash flooding will be the relatively higher flash flood guidance and also the drier than normal conditions experienced in the last 14 days. Nonetheless, if storms train or move over sensitive/urban locations, some flash flooding is possible.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 2:58 pm to slackster
quote:
2-4 inch amounts
We can handle that in most places over time, just not all at once.
I got more than that last night.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 3:21 pm to Tarps99
quote:
2-4 inch
quote:
I got more than that last night.
I bet you did
Posted on 6/5/19 at 3:27 pm to tigercraig
quote:
I bet you did
Lol nice work
Posted on 6/5/19 at 3:38 pm to slackster
It's Lake Charles and the surrounding that is starting to look like the worst flood potential to me. HRRR wants to blow two heavy rounds over SWLa/ETx over the next 12 hours or so. Deep convection out to their south and drifting that way.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 3:45 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 05 2019 Areas affected...Upper TX and LA Gulf Coast Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 052000Z - 060200Z
Summary...Heavy rainfall associated with tropical moisture will continue to move onshore the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts. Hourly rates as high as 2" will be possible and with a long duration rain event, flash flooding will be likely.
Discussion...Weak convective low analyzed just onshore the upper Texas Gulf coast this afternoon as seen in the latest KHGX radar imagery and observations. Radar imagery shows widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall along and ahead of this with the onshore tropical moisture where radar estimates are showing rates of 1-2" just offshore. Over the last 6 hours, several inches of rain have fallen in the outlook, with widespread 3-6 inch amounts with local totals exceeding 10 inches. The highest 24-hr total is 14.08" in Midfield. The environment is very conducive for heavy rainfall with extremely high PWs (2.6-2.7") along the coast with values tapering to 2.3-2.4" inland, and this is expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Waves of tropical moisture rain bands will work onshore (850 mb winds show 20-30 kts) impinging on the convergence boundary along the coast. Hi-res models paint very high QPF amounts along and just inland with totals through 04z of 2-4" with some localized amounts east of the Houston metro area approaching 4-6". HREF probabilities of exceeding 3" in 1 hour are in the 15-30 percent range with some smaller maxima as high as 35-50 percent in and around the Houston area. The risk of these high amounts shift east through the remainder of the day, reaching the western Louisiana coastal areas around or after 00z. Although antecedent conditions have been relatively dry in the past 14 days, the rainfall that has been in the near term will continue to saturate the soils and as a result lower the flash flood guidance. With the intense rates likely to exceed the FFG and the possibility of this happening over urban and sensitive areas, some instances of flash flooding will be likely into the early/mid evening hours.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 3:54 pm to Duke
18z NAM hi res through 60 hours
18z HRRR through 36 hours
Some 15"+ totals near and west of Lake Charles.
Some major totals just south of Stephensville area in LA too. Little too close for comfort.
Hopefully the worst stays off shore. The humidity today in LA is off the damn charts.
18z HRRR through 36 hours
Some 15"+ totals near and west of Lake Charles.
Some major totals just south of Stephensville area in LA too. Little too close for comfort.
Hopefully the worst stays off shore. The humidity today in LA is off the damn charts.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 4:18 pm to slackster
I walked outside with my coffee at about 830 this morning and broke into a full sweat standing still.
Oppressive doesn’t cover it.
Oppressive doesn’t cover it.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 5:20 pm to TigerNAtux
There's a center of circulation development about 20 miles south of Galveston. Looks like it may close off soon
Posted on 6/5/19 at 5:31 pm to Bedhog
Safe to assume my gulf shores trip this weekend will be a wash out?
Posted on 6/5/19 at 5:35 pm to NickyT
Shouldn't be
Supposed to be headed NE into middle Louisiana.
Supposed to be headed NE into middle Louisiana.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 5:42 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
walked outside with my coffee at about 830 this morning and broke into a full sweat standing still.
Exactly. I mean it slapped the shite out of me. It was noticeably humid, which says a lot for LA.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:10 pm to slackster
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:12 pm to slackster
Rain shield getting to BR ahead of schedule.
Big convective burst over near Lake Charles in the last hour or so. Lot of lightning to their south. Strong winds and noticable rotation will begin moving inland near and west of Cameron in the next hour or two.
Sao, that was a hell of a haboob for west Texas.
Big convective burst over near Lake Charles in the last hour or so. Lot of lightning to their south. Strong winds and noticable rotation will begin moving inland near and west of Cameron in the next hour or two.
Sao, that was a hell of a haboob for west Texas.
This post was edited on 6/5/19 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:14 pm to Duke
It’s a moderate rain. Nothing significant other than it’s rained all day, non stop.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:21 pm to Duke
So I watched my local forecast in NELA at lunch and they were still predicting 2-3". I see a lot of dry air coming in, per 6pm news. Is it going to be popcorn showers at best here? I'm thinking we won't get much here, if any now. I need at least a 1/2 or more to finish planting.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:38 pm to Lynyrd
I planted because this is best chance of moisture in the dry dirt for a while
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:45 pm to Lynyrd
quote:
Is it going to be popcorn showers at best here? I'm thinking we won't get much here, if any now. I need at least a 1/2 or more to finish planting.
All of the short range modeling shows you getting at least that much by noon tomorrow. Timing for a good round of showers would be overnight and early morning based on what I'm seeing.
Map from the Storm Prediction Center showing how much moisture is moving in (shaded areas light green ---> red as the moisture increases) and arrows showing you where it's headed.
There's a mid level low coming in from the west, looks like it's around the TX Panhandle now. It'll help pull the moisture up your way as it moves east over the next 24ish hours as well and ought to provide a little better potential for lift up your way.
In short, you should get enough rain to finish planting.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:51 pm to Duke
quote:
it moves east over the next 24ish hours as well and ought to provide a little better potential for lift up your way.
In short, you should get enough rain to finish planting
Hopefully so and thank you.
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