re: Hurricane Season - 91L - Flash Flood Warnings for S. LA, Worst Rain Moving out Later Today

Looking rainfall over the next two days from the WPC.

This is, for all practical purposes, a tropical depression and it'll rain like one.

Tomorrow: Houston/East Texas/SW LA

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Deep warm cloud depth in the tropical environment will reach nearly 5000m along the Gulf Coast, and up to 4000m further north, suggesting efficient warm cloud processes will dominate. This is reflected in recent HREF neighborhood probabilities which show a high risk for 2"/hr or greater rain rates, as well as a likelihood for more than 5" of rain in the Houston vicinity.

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The non-NAM consensus including the NMMB, 17Z NBM, Conest, and WPC bias corrected ensemble all depict a region of 6-9" of rainfall centered across east Texas. While this area has been relatively dry recently with 14-day rainfall just 10-50% of normal, these rain rates and excessive rainfall accumulations will likely create flash flooding, especially where multiple rounds of convection occur. After coordination with HGX/LCH, the risk will be maintained at moderate for some residual uncertainty into placement and timing, but it is possible a High Risk upgrade may be needed with further updates.

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Farther north into the areas flooding in Arkansas, the heavy rainfall risk is lower but it won't take much to be a problem.

Now to Thursday:

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a broad area of 1-3" of rainfall is likely from extreme southern Kansas arcing southeastward through Arkansas and towards the MS/LA Gulf Coast. The high PWAT anomalies and probabilities for heavy rain rates will be focused across LA/MS, while the best synoptic ascent driving convection will be northward into AR and OK.

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Down near the gulf coast, we're just going to have an abundance of moisture to work with. Up into OK/AR it is an upper low moving toward the area that will get it going.

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The combination of moisture and instability is expected to aid in the development of lines of convection across LA into southern AR and western MS, mainly after 06/18z. In the deep moisture, hourly rainfall rates could top out over 2.00 inches here, especially where training occurs, as cells move north while the lines move east northeast. There is a multi model signal for local 3.00/4.00 inch rainfall amounts, particularly over northeast LA into western MS. However, due to the lack of focus, there is spread concerning where the highest rainfall occurs.

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Just a note of NE LA/W Mississippi could get very heavy rain rates.

I'm not sure what this all means but one look at my lawn plus seeing that the high for Thursday will be 82 makes me want to roll the dice and say bring it on.

Looks like Assumption Parish May see some problems from heavy rainfall not having anywhere to drain.

It looks as good as you can expect for summertime.

I think the Saturday start in the mid afternoon could well end up with a delay. Best rain chances are going to be while they're playing. Going to be pretty miserable heat and humidity wise if it rains or not. 7:00 pm would have been perfect.

Sunday looks good, especially with the later start.

I'm not going to worry about Monday until I have to.

Mother
Fer

Looks like I might have to head through Houston to San Antonio come Thursday. Anyone want to give me some cliff notes on what's been happening? Been swamped at work.
Thx.

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walking on crackers.

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racist

The WPC thought the NAM was overdone this afternoon, but it's notable that the system could easily overperform in locations.

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Da fuq is this on page 2 for?

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This. Somma you baws gonna get flooded.