re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland

TDs is this an actual model run of a system currently? Or a test?

The frick is this shite????

I wonder how that would play out with the current river stage

Have a trip scheduled for the Bahamas next week. This doesn’t look promising. Do I need to reschedule?

frickin 2 week advanced models lol

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I know it's supposed to be the next big thing and eventually replace GFS, but how accurate has it's initial runs been? I don't put a ton of stock into anything long-term, but it definitely raises an eyebrow to see a run like that.

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I know you're not asking me, and I'm no professional. But I have been watching the tropics extremely closely for 23 years and have learned a thing or two.

This new model is a brand new experimental model. We have very, very limited results to compare it to so far, so we really don't know how accurate it's going to be. When it began showing this last week, we all laughed and said "welp, that model is going to be shite". But then the regular GFS started showing it. So we were all like "hmm, the GFS is on it now too. Probably because its future experimental model is all over it, though". Then today the Euro joined in. That's raising everyone's eyebrows because the Euro is historically one of the most accurate models for tropical weather.

Now, the GFS and Euro models could only be picking it up based simply on the fact that the future GFS is picking it up. I believe all models have the other models' output programmed into them and are supposed to take it into consideration. So bottom line is they could only be picking it up because the GFS picked it up. They're going to take the GFS seriously since it's a major model. The GFS picks it up because its experimental future model is picking it up.

We will have to wait and see. It could be (and probably is) a huge bust or it could end up being the most accurate, jaw-dropping weather model ever created.

GOES is always impressive for the sheer ability to see the different levels of wind.

I am no weather guru but that has definitely helped me understand how weather operates from a visual perspective.

Yep, wind at different levels brings in different levels of moisture and instability. Hurricanes are truly amazing systems when you really think about the incredible amount of perfect conditions that have to exist at the right time and at the right location in order for one to form.

This is why meteorologists have such a difficult time forecasting the weather. Sure, they've gotten much, much better since just 10 years ago due to the advances in technology that can sniff out changes to various atmospheric conditions, but there's still a tremendous amount that they don't yet know and understand. They will be wrong sometimes.

That certainly does have the look of a system in the beginning stages of trying to develop. Lots of sheer right now, though.