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Message
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:27 pm to Duke
But the Defense is sometimes shaky and 95L may look like its in trouble and then suddenly throws a 35 yard completion for a First Down and the Scoring Threat is right there again, right?
"Scoring" being we get hit by a Hurricane.
"Scoring" being we get hit by a Hurricane.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:30 pm to lsuman25
quote:
95L is acting like the Pittsburgh Steelers everyone false starting except for the center.
Yeah, but, on the next play, 95L could be scrambling, arm tackled, stumbling to the ground, slings a pass while mid-air and falling to the ground, completes the pass 35 yards downfield and has it First Down on the New Orleans 25 yard line !!
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:31 pm to Duke
quote:
The upper low is just something in front of it (westish) throwing wind at it opposed to the direction it's moving. If it stays there, the shear stays and it can never get very strong at all.
So, definitely not a pick-6, but possibly a tackle for loss on 2nd down?
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:34 pm to Champagne
quote:\
If 95L were playing the Tigers
Is Coach Ditka or Mini Coach Ditka coaching 95L?
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:35 pm to Champagne
quote:
"Scoring" being we get hit by a Hurricane
If it manages to get to hurricane strength somehow, it would almost have to be east of here (SE LA).
quote:
Is Coach Ditka or Mini Coach Ditka coaching 95L?
Obviously Hurricane Ditka.
This post was edited on 9/11/19 at 7:36 pm
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:35 pm to rds dc
quote:
Is Coach Ditka or Mini Coach Ditka coaching 95L?
Come on, man, be serious.
Coach Ditka never coached college ball.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:43 pm to Duke
quote:
95L is sheared pretty good from the SW.
The 18z GFS never gets 95L separated from the ULL and they eventually end up combining over southern Louisiana.
The experimental HAFS shows a similar solution. The 12z Euro keeps the system over land after bringing it into SE FL as maybe a TD with an elongated LLC. The Euro does show some increased organization over land as the ULL drifts SW far enough to enhance outflow. These types of solutions rarely workout.
The NHC 70% right seems about right for a low bar solution of a TD or weak TS.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:50 pm to rds dc
quote:
The NHC 70% right seems about right for a low bar solution of a TD or weak TS.
No doubt.
I could see the Euro's idea working out if it reforms the center NE closer to the mid level spin.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:57 pm to Duke
quote:
I could see the Euro's idea working out if it reforms the center NE closer to the mid level spin.
The Euro keeps the LLC elongated right up until the system moves into SE FL. Maybe some frictional convergence tightening things up? I'm not sure shear will letup to allow for the LLC to tighten up farther to the NE. Both the GFS and Euro show a convective pattern consistent with a system driven by downshear convection.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 8:00 pm to rds dc
Looking beyond 95L, the Euro EPS actually opened up the spread from 00z to 12z. This potential system is still a bit of a concern. Maybe 95L creates a weakness for any future system to follow it off to the NE?
Posted on 9/11/19 at 8:15 pm to rds dc
quote:
I'm not sure shear will letup to allow for the LLC to tighten up farther to the NE.
Not sold on the idea either, for this reason, just kind of spitballing at what could have it get a little separation from the ULL.
ETA:
quote:
Looking beyond 95L, the Euro EPS actually opened up the spread from 00z to 12z.
That's a hell of a spread.
Going to be a headache to forecast that's for sure.
This post was edited on 9/11/19 at 8:20 pm
Posted on 9/11/19 at 9:08 pm to rds dc
quote:
The experimental HAFS shows a similar solution. The 12z Euro keeps the system over land after bringing it into SE FL as maybe a TD with an elongated LLC. The Euro does show some increased organization over land as the ULL drifts SW far enough to enhance outflow. These types of solutions rarely workout. The NHC 70% right seems about right for a low bar solution of a TD or weak TS.
Could someone give this to me so a person that knows nothing about weather could understand? Or maybe in terms of a five year old?
Posted on 9/11/19 at 9:09 pm to NolaTiger52
quote:
Could someone give this to me so a person that knows nothing about weather could understand? Or maybe in terms of a five year old?
95L STACKED
Louisiana fricked
Posted on 9/11/19 at 9:18 pm to NolaTiger52
quote:
NolaTiger52
It's getting sheared by an upper low thats going to move generally with the system. One model has it always shearing the system, keeping it pretty weak.
Another model has the upper low eventually get more in front of the system, which would actually help it some. That model ends up east toward Florida panhandle eventually.
Both aren't showing a very strong storm.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 6:24 am to rds dc
Posted about 5:30 am on Twitter by Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel:
LINK
quote:
A significant change in the ECMWF prediction of invest #95L. The model now keeps this system offshore from Florida, allowing it intensify o/the warm Atlantic. The model is now predicting a more robust tropical cyclone, threatening the eastern U.S. seaboard. This was a surprise.
LINK
Posted on 9/12/19 at 6:36 am to toosleaux
Looks like the Euro forms the center much farther north and east then where the NHC has it now.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 7:23 am to DawgCountry
So is Louisiana now unfricked?
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