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1
Posted on 8/28/19 at 6:14 am to Placebeaux
Yes. It is Betsy’s path.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 6:18 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 6:20 am to slackster
I have a feeling this will remain an Atlantic storm that will run up the east coast.
Hurricane Sandy of the Chesapeake.
Hurricane Sandy of the Chesapeake.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 6:48 am to Pectus
My gut when I first saw this tiny storm, oh my, she will be in the Gulf of Mexico, between Mobile and Gulfport
Let the DOWNVOTES commence, no worries, hell, I'll cast one!!!
Let the DOWNVOTES commence, no worries, hell, I'll cast one!!!
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 6:53 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 6:58 am to TigerstuckinMS
Triangle month is old news.
My circle math tells me bawcomville needs to be put on notice now.
My circle math tells me bawcomville needs to be put on notice now.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 6:59 am to Pedro
Bawcomville is always on notice......Baw!
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:01 am to LSU316
Well, that is a big shift. Maybe for the good, I hope.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:11 am to fishfighter
So the NHC shows a pretty solid hit into Canaveral, but tropical tidbits shows it skirting the coast. Why is that?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:18 am to shallowminded
quote:
So the NHC shows a pretty solid hit into Canaveral, but tropical tidbits shows it skirting the coast. Why is that?
The default model on tropical tidbits is the GFS, which is one of many models the NHC used the make their forecast. Always go with the NHC over any individual model.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:21 am to fishfighter
6z GFS ensembles
0z Euro ensembles
Worth noting thr Euro is far more bullish on strength.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 7:22 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:22 am to slackster
8am advisory. Keeps inching north
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:23 am to slackster
If this hits Panama City I’ll lay out in my hammock the whole time. It will feel like a mist compared to the last one.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:25 am to shallowminded
quote:
So the NHC shows a pretty solid hit into Canaveral, but tropical tidbits shows it skirting the coast. Why is that?
Size and position of a high pressure ridge in the western Atlantic will influence the track, west or more north/northwest.
Watch this for an excellent explanation.
Tidbits link
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:25 am to lsuman25
quote:
Recon heading into Dorian be interesting to see what they find.
One station this morning said they are flying out of Curacao. I thought all the Atlantic weather planes came out of Polk County. They are also saying Dorian will reach a hundred on the way to Jacksonville.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:28 am to slackster
Good news today is models show any Louisiana or Ms gulf coast hit is less and less likely.
Bad news is most models seem to agree that Florida will get hammered by a Cat 2 or bigger. Euro has it crossing the peninsula, entering gulf, then hitting the panhandle and going up through Georgia and SC
Bad news is most models seem to agree that Florida will get hammered by a Cat 2 or bigger. Euro has it crossing the peninsula, entering gulf, then hitting the panhandle and going up through Georgia and SC
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:40 am to slackster
quote:
6z GFS ensembles
quote:
0z Euro ensembles
Also, somewhat of a westward shift from the prior 12hrs
12z Euro EPS
18z GEFS
Recon is finding a better organized system this morning that continues to slowly strengthen. It looks like we can take the "Dorian won't survive the trek through the Caribbean" (my early favorite) solution off the table. The system will still have to contend with PR and some ULL interactions but what seemed like a low end possibility a couple of days ago looks a lot more certain this morning, a strengthening system moving towards Florida and possibly into the Gulf.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:45 am to LSU316
quote:
Bawcomville is always on notice......Baw
Don’t worry we gucci
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:45 am to rds dc
quote:
The system will still have to contend with PR and some ULL interactions but what seemed like a low end possibility a couple of days ago looks a lot more certain this morning, a strengthening system moving towards Florida and possibly into the Gulf.
Apparently we have Martinique to blame for this.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:46 am to rds dc
Is that a typical ensemble spread for 4-5 days out? Also it looks like the spread got wider.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 7:48 am to LSUJuice
Punta Cana spared. See all y’all down there for our annual meeting.
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