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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:24 pm to
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:24 pm to
quote:

Also, combining the 18z GEFS and 12z Euro EPS, no tracks into Louisiana


Yes, but what have peoples' guts been saying? Also, has triangle math begun?
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 10:25 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
50741 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:25 pm to
quote:

At least we know the city of New Orleans is prepared for any rain storm.

Finally got all of the cars out of the drainage system.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129061 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:26 pm to
quote:

Yes, but what have peoples' guts been saying?


Quite a few guts have been saying the track will keep shifting west.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21020 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:48 pm to
00z GFS is NE and a good bit stronger than 18z through 66hrs.
Posted by drockw1
Member since Jun 2006
9297 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:52 pm to
Tropical Tidbits needs an app now

ETA: Euro kick rocks
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 10:54 pm
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100226 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:07 pm to
GFS trending toward the low possibility of an out to sea storm that Levi talked about. It’s somewhat an outlier as all the other models have a stronger ridge developing to prevent this, but let’s hope GFS is right.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:11 pm to
Steering gets really weak, leaving Dorian to ever so slowly creep toward a possible opening. Don't really like any sort of slow moving situation. Seen far too many over the past few years.

00z GFS is going NC coastal swipe on Wednesday of next week followed by a kick out to sea. Never really gets inland.
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 11:22 pm
Posted by tketaco
Sunnyside, Houston
Member since Jan 2010
21481 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:22 pm to
quote:

Day 45 of Louisiana National Guard Activation in preparation for this storm.

LaPlace has been evacuated. NOLA in gridlock during contra flow. BTR is currently on fire


JBE just authorized sending Nukes.

#LouisianaStrong
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:37 pm to
I mentioned that in the earlier GFS run. I noticed it wanted to slow up especially when it started to approach Georgia/FL border. I think it had a gap of almost 36 hours where it didn't move a bunch.
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16745 posts
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:46 pm to
quote:

GFS trending toward the low possibility of an out to sea storm that Levi talked about. It’s somewhat an outlier as all the other models have a stronger ridge developing to prevent this, but let’s hope GFS is right.
out to sea solution is the most likely scenario in my opinion- based upon climatology and what the models are now beginning to show. The vast majority of storms in this are recurve.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91300 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:56 am to
quote:

out to sea solution is the most likely scenario in my opinion- based upon climatology and what the models are now beginning to show. The vast majority of storms in this are recurve.


One run doesn't mean anything, either way.

00z GFS ensembles...



Most members bring it on shore for now.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43141 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:04 am to
Man I wish we had another plane going into Dorian right now. Looks to be strengthening based on the satellite.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
104240 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:43 am to
Posted by Penn
Jax Beach
Member since Jan 2008
23636 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 3:44 am to
In Jax, that model makes me feel better
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
11414 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:14 am to
quote:

Steering gets really weak, leaving Dorian to ever so slowly creep toward a possible opening. Don't really like any sort of slow moving situation. Seen far too many over the past few years.


Does Betsy come to mind as a possible analog to this storm. Weak steering once it gets towards Florida, then makes 2 loops then heads Southwest towards Miami then curves up to the Louisiana coast.

This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 5:20 am
Posted by CCT
LA
Member since Dec 2006
6792 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:17 am to
We want to keep Betsy OUT of mind...let’s not jinx LA...
Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
15749 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:22 am to
I'm all for the out to sea scenario . dont need anymore hurricanes in this area for another 10 years
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:35 am to
The ICON is sticking to its guns with the Euro starting to shift over towards it. The Canadian seems on board with a Florida crossover too. GFS is off playing by itself in SC before heading back out to sea.

The 06z ICON run shows it making the cross over Florida a little further south than the 0z.
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
45255 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:36 am to
quote:

In Jax, that model makes me feel better


It has changed, Baw. Fill your gas tanks and tub.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43141 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:41 am to
Recon heading into Dorian be interesting to see what they find.
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