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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:24 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:24 pm to rds dc
quote:
Also, combining the 18z GEFS and 12z Euro EPS, no tracks into Louisiana
Yes, but what have peoples' guts been saying? Also, has triangle math begun?
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:25 pm to Whodatforlife21
quote:
At least we know the city of New Orleans is prepared for any rain storm.
Finally got all of the cars out of the drainage system.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:26 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
Yes, but what have peoples' guts been saying?
Quite a few guts have been saying the track will keep shifting west.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:48 pm to rds dc
00z GFS is NE and a good bit stronger than 18z through 66hrs.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 10:52 pm to rds dc
Tropical Tidbits needs an app now
ETA: Euro kick rocks
ETA: Euro kick rocks
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 10:54 pm
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:07 pm to rds dc
GFS trending toward the low possibility of an out to sea storm that Levi talked about. It’s somewhat an outlier as all the other models have a stronger ridge developing to prevent this, but let’s hope GFS is right.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:11 pm to deltaland
Steering gets really weak, leaving Dorian to ever so slowly creep toward a possible opening. Don't really like any sort of slow moving situation. Seen far too many over the past few years.
00z GFS is going NC coastal swipe on Wednesday of next week followed by a kick out to sea. Never really gets inland.
00z GFS is going NC coastal swipe on Wednesday of next week followed by a kick out to sea. Never really gets inland.
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 11:22 pm
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:22 pm to tketaco
quote:
Day 45 of Louisiana National Guard Activation in preparation for this storm.
LaPlace has been evacuated. NOLA in gridlock during contra flow. BTR is currently on fire
JBE just authorized sending Nukes.
#LouisianaStrong
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:37 pm to Duke
I mentioned that in the earlier GFS run. I noticed it wanted to slow up especially when it started to approach Georgia/FL border. I think it had a gap of almost 36 hours where it didn't move a bunch.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:46 pm to deltaland
quote:out to sea solution is the most likely scenario in my opinion- based upon climatology and what the models are now beginning to show. The vast majority of storms in this are recurve.
GFS trending toward the low possibility of an out to sea storm that Levi talked about. It’s somewhat an outlier as all the other models have a stronger ridge developing to prevent this, but let’s hope GFS is right.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:56 am to otowntiger
quote:
out to sea solution is the most likely scenario in my opinion- based upon climatology and what the models are now beginning to show. The vast majority of storms in this are recurve.
One run doesn't mean anything, either way.
00z GFS ensembles...
Most members bring it on shore for now.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:04 am to slackster
Man I wish we had another plane going into Dorian right now. Looks to be strengthening based on the satellite.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 3:44 am to Jim Rockford
In Jax, that model makes me feel better
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:14 am to Duke
quote:
Steering gets really weak, leaving Dorian to ever so slowly creep toward a possible opening. Don't really like any sort of slow moving situation. Seen far too many over the past few years.
Does Betsy come to mind as a possible analog to this storm. Weak steering once it gets towards Florida, then makes 2 loops then heads Southwest towards Miami then curves up to the Louisiana coast.

This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 5:20 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:17 am to Tarps99
We want to keep Betsy OUT of mind...let’s not jinx LA...
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:22 am to CCT
I'm all for the out to sea scenario . dont need anymore hurricanes in this area for another 10 years
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:35 am to CCT
The ICON is sticking to its guns with the Euro starting to shift over towards it. The Canadian seems on board with a Florida crossover too. GFS is off playing by itself in SC before heading back out to sea.
The 06z ICON run shows it making the cross over Florida a little further south than the 0z.
The 06z ICON run shows it making the cross over Florida a little further south than the 0z.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:36 am to Penn
quote:
In Jax, that model makes me feel better
It has changed, Baw. Fill your gas tanks and tub.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 5:41 am to Hangit
Recon heading into Dorian be interesting to see what they find.
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