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re: Experts finally admitting that Tigerdroppings was right all along
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:05 am to shawnlsu
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:05 am to shawnlsu
quote:
Roger, you are lying to yourself if yo think that shutting down major democratic strongholds in the nation wouldn't have lead to much worse than what we are seeing now. I 100% think that this is God's way of telling us (as a world) to slow down. Enjoy your family. Stop worshiping money.
1
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:05 am to Sun God
Shawn is a fricking nut. 
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:06 am to shawnlsu
quote:
Roger, you are lying to yourself if yo think that shutting down major democratic strongholds in the nation wouldn't have lead to much worse than what we are seeing now.
I 100% think that this is God's way of telling us (as a world) to slow down. Enjoy your family. Stop worshiping money.
oh boy
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:08 am to shawnlsu
I'm a minimalist. Not money motivated, havent lost my hob.
This ain't about me. This is about the people I talk to every day at work watching their lifes work slip away.
This ain't about me. This is about the people I talk to every day at work watching their lifes work slip away.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:08 am to PearlJam
quote:
His posts have been logical and he has clearly laid out his thoughts. If you disagree, why not lose the emoticons and throw away one liners and engage in actual substantive discussion.
It doesn't bother me. I know what the models say; most here don't. Not a huge deal.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:09 am to CarRamrod
quote:
government doesnt give up control once they have it
I've been in some high level meetings. I've never heard anyone say "we need to keep everyone home so we can maintain control". It has always been about not exceeding the capacity of hospitals. COVID 19 hospitalizes far more people that flu and that's the reason for the reaction (or over reaction). I think the restrictions will stay in place until the end of the month just to be on the safe side. That is strictly my opinion. I could be totally wrong.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:09 am to Antonio Moss
The self righteousness by you guys is almost as bad as the actual virus.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:10 am to Salmon
Shawn believes small business owners and the people they employ worship money. Not the large corporations who are 10000x more likely to weather this storm.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:12 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Are you saying these projections excluded dstancing? If so, you're wrong.
They did but the value of those policies was more generic on March 26th than today because the limited data on their effect (only had Wuhan to go off of and that data is questionable at best) - hence the large spread.
quote:
Model update 2: Weighting of social distancing policies in the COVID-19 death model.
Our previous models had a composite measure for estimating the effects of social distancing policies on the course of the epidemic. Until today’s release, all types of mandate had been combined together by giving them equal weight. Of the four social distancing policies we currently track (i.e., school closures, stay-at-home orders, non-essential business closures, and travel limitations), no state had enacted a travel limitation mandate that met our criteria until quite recently (i.e., Alaska, implemented March 28 and incorporated into our April 2 release). Subsequently, we continue to primarily focus on the three measures – school closures, stay-at-home orders, and non-essential business closures – more widely implemented by US states to date. If or as more states mandate severe travel limitations, we will revisit its inclusion into our updated weighting approach.
Starting with today’s release, we use three different weighting schemes to better approximate variation in potential policy impact across social distancing mandates. Our statistical tests suggest that early actions such as school closures may have a larger effect in some communities than expected; in other locations, fully mandated stay-at-home orders may be required for detectable impact. To better capture this community-by-community difference of mandates on social distancing behaviors, we now use an ensemble model of three different weighting schemes. More details will be included in the technical paper that will be released by Tuesday, April 7, and will be published here.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:14 am to Penrod
quote:
I DID use the mean (or average) which is their "most likely" prediction.
Even this is incorrect. Median projection doesn't mean "most likely"
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:14 am to Penrod
quote:
Obvious if you make bad assumptions.
I don't need to make assumptions. Your thread lays out your position. You believe at least some of the measures taken were excessive, and you cite the outcome that resulted from those measures as evidence.
Again I'll say, I thought it was rather obvious...
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:15 am to ell_13
quote:
Shawn believes small business owners and the people they employ worship money. Not the large corporations who are 10000x more likely to weather this storm.
The people I talk to are desperately trying to be good troopers. They're as concerned for the people they laid off as much or more than mondy.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:17 am to Penrod
quote:
The decisions were made based on estimates that now appear to be way overblown.
Here you are again...
Is it obvious yet?
quote:
Sweden has chosen to go a different direction, and the data is beginning to make them look prescient.
We aren't Sweden.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:22 am to EllEssYou45
What are the differences between us and Sweden? Socialized healthcare? Are they healthier (I’ve read they smoke much more than us but we are fatter)? More hospital/ICU beds (we have more than triple their per capita capacity)?
I’m curious what differences would make us incapable of taking their approach.
I’m curious what differences would make us incapable of taking their approach.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 10:23 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:25 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Most considered various scenarios.
I think most really undervalued the impact of distancing and limiting exposure rates. That's why new numbers are going to be so good. This could've gotten really bad, really fast if we didn't do these things. We know that's the case when you see places like New York and Italy.
Our country has really done a good job of santizing/disinfecting/distancing. I'm pretty impressed.
Now, I'm in the camp that says at the end of April, we need to phase the economy back online. Keep the 50% capacity rules and no concerts/large gatherings, etc., but re-open otherwise. Continue with the masks and 6 ft. guidelines as well. And continue isolating the highly vulnerable until a vaccine is out there.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:25 am to terriblegreen
quote:of course you arent going to hear it. it is the basic mentality of big government. People in big government usually dont realize they are doing it because it is "for the good of the people". But it is always going on. Look at NFA laws, prohibition, and other times where the government felt the need to outlaw things from the public.
I've been in some high level meetings. I've never heard anyone say "we need to keep everyone home so we can maintain control".
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:25 am to Sun God
quote:
The self righteousness by you guys is almost as bad as the actual virus.
I won't kill grandma.
I've been pretty consistent throughout this thing and have been called everything from a doomcaster to underestimating the seriousness.
I've had people tell that the models are "wrong" despite everything falling in the predicted range and then misusing basic statistical terms to try and prove their point. We have people here who have wholly discounted hundreds of confirmed cases of COVID for various reasons to "prove" a point that mathematically isn't correct.
I understand the arguments of overreaction. I especially understand the arguments against state-sweeping policies. I'm not sure I agree with them, but I understand them. But those are only coming from a handful of posters who understand the data and amounts to a disagreement of policy based on the data. But there is whole other group that either don't understand the data or wholly ignore it and then make these outlandish claims of accuracy and superiority based on nothing. It's this group whose opinion I'm not all that concerned about.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:29 am to Penrod
quote:
You are the one who misunderstands what those ranges mean. Anywhere in that band does not constitute a correct answer. They generate multiple curves. Data that falls on a low curve followed by data on one of the high curves does not constitute "in the range". It means their curves are bull shite. Further, the actual data absolutely has fallen outside that entire gi-friggin-gantic band. This is global warming all over again. The experts models are: 1. always way wrong 2. always wrong in the same direction 3. always "fixed" just now such that back modeling works out perfectly 4. followed by always wrong again...and guess in which direction. You guessed it. More hysteria!!!
Eh, we have novel virus with unprecedented international response, and mathematical models that are trying to model the behavior of 330,000,000 people in various family sizes and population densities. I would be more shocked if the ranges weren't astronomically large.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:30 am to Antonio Moss
Remember when you tried to claim young and healthy covid cases were putting a strain on the system? And you used data from the end of February as your source which didn’t even include health stats?
I remember.
I just love how you think you’re so smart and can lecture people on understanding data after you went that route.
I remember.
I just love how you think you’re so smart and can lecture people on understanding data after you went that route.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 10:31 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:31 am to ell_13
quote:\
What are the differences between us and Sweden? Socialized healthcare? Are they healthier (I’ve read they smoke much more than us but we are fatter)? More hospital/ICU beds (we have more than triple their per capita capacity)?
I’m curious what differences would make us incapable of taking their approach.
First, it appears Sweden is already tailoring their policies.
But the most significant difference between the U.S. and Sweden as it concerns COVID is that Sweden has basically no major urban areas outside of Stockholm and Stockholm's metro area is only about the size of Jacksonville or Milwaukee.
Every other metro area in Sweden is considerably smaller than Greater Baton Rouge.
Population density is a pretty deal in infectious disease spread.
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