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Started By
Message
re: Experts finally admitting that Tigerdroppings was right all along
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:20 am to Penrod
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:20 am to Penrod
Thanks for the link -- note they are a bit more realistic re the Gump's in Bama!!
BUT THESE MODELS ARE STILL OVERSTATING!
They use data that rely too heavily on tyhe first cases -- the least healthy 5-10% of thge population
There will be nothing but good news all this week and the media and Task Force will attribute it all to the shutdown when in fact it's because their models way overstated the magnitude and duration!! Not at all clear the shutdown had any real impact.....
BUT THESE MODELS ARE STILL OVERSTATING!
They use data that rely too heavily on tyhe first cases -- the least healthy 5-10% of thge population
There will be nothing but good news all this week and the media and Task Force will attribute it all to the shutdown when in fact it's because their models way overstated the magnitude and duration!! Not at all clear the shutdown had any real impact.....
1
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:20 am to Errerrerrwere
quote:No there isn't. Idiots are going to use confirmation bias and act like pompous jackasses to those they disagreed with (regardless of where they fall on the issues).
There are going to be so many idiots eating their words after this!
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:21 am to Penrod
quote:
The decisions were made based on estimates that now appear to be way overblown
Politicians reacted to the worst possible case scenario. That's no way to govern. Prepare for the worst does not mean shutting down society and people's livelihood unless absolutely necessary.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:21 am to Penrod
Aren't the graphs better because of the distancing? Wasn't the purpose of distancing to make those earlier graphs wrong?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:22 am to ell_13
quote:
ell_13
Can't see the forest for the trees.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:22 am to Jake88
quote:
Aren't the graphs better because of the distancing?
Most considered various scenarios.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:22 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
First, I'm not an expert is statistics. I don't have much of a background in it
That is very clear from your posts
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:24 am to Jake88
quote:
Aren't the graphs better because of the distancing? Wasn't the purpose of distancing to make those earlier graphs wrong?
Yes, but some will never admit that.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:25 am to shawnlsu
quote:
Yes, but some will never admit that.
Are you saying these projections excluded dstancing? If so, you're wrong.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 9:28 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:25 am to MusclesofBrussels
quote:
That is very clear from your posts
But his first line in every post is, “Thats not the way this works...”
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:26 am to MusclesofBrussels
quote:His posts have been logical and he has clearly laid out his thoughts. If you disagree, why not lose the emoticons and throw away one liners and engage in actual substantive discussion.
That is very clear from your posts
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 9:31 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:29 am to shawnlsu
You didn’t address anything I said.
Answer this one question for me... If it’s “reckless and careless” for my kid to play with a friend on the weekends. Just one kid. Why isn’t it reckless for me to send him to school in August 5 days a week with 500+ other kids? When we know we won’t have a vaccine? What if his grandparents haven’t been exposed yet?
You see what we have done here? With no criteria or actual plan in place, we have now put ourselves in a corner. All our leaders and politicians cared about was looking like they were doing something without true regard for the consequences. And then it was an arms race between mayors and governors to see who could cancel their areas for longer and to a higher extent. We shut things down when just a few people were dying per day. How can they justify to the mass media and a hysterical, irrational public to open things back up when 100 people are still dying per day? I know deaths isn’t the number to use to make this decision. But the public (people like you) is stupid.
Answer this one question for me... If it’s “reckless and careless” for my kid to play with a friend on the weekends. Just one kid. Why isn’t it reckless for me to send him to school in August 5 days a week with 500+ other kids? When we know we won’t have a vaccine? What if his grandparents haven’t been exposed yet?
You see what we have done here? With no criteria or actual plan in place, we have now put ourselves in a corner. All our leaders and politicians cared about was looking like they were doing something without true regard for the consequences. And then it was an arms race between mayors and governors to see who could cancel their areas for longer and to a higher extent. We shut things down when just a few people were dying per day. How can they justify to the mass media and a hysterical, irrational public to open things back up when 100 people are still dying per day? I know deaths isn’t the number to use to make this decision. But the public (people like you) is stupid.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:30 am to LSUtoBOOT
quote:
However, expect restrictions to continue until a vaccine is administered to everyone.
Just open the fricking gyms.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:30 am to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
quote:
They use data that rely too heavily on tyhe first cases -- the least healthy 5-10% of thge population
I don't blame doctors or statisticians, I blame the policy makers who panicked.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:34 am to ell_13
No need, your statement said all I need to know about you.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:35 am to PearlJam
quote:
The experts are using data and plugging them into models. They have said all along the models will change as additional data is collected. This isn't surprising to anyone that understands this beyond just a surface level.
Why did I know (and a bunch of others) five days before the experts? I'm talking to NOLA area ICU doctors three days ago, and they are telling me it's already peaked. Meanwhile the experts, and their models, are saying it's six days hence.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:37 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
This is factually incorrect. The range is the range. You keep using the upper limits to judge the entire range.
No, I'm not. I never once used the upper limit. I DID use the mean (or average) which is their "most likely" prediction. I've already explained why the "range" defense is not justified. I'm not going to understand it for you.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:38 am to Antonio Moss
Further, dont we have more information to go by for hurricanes than we did for this?
As for as the analogy seatbelts v. not driving, what seatbelts were available for this? Not being fat and old? pretty hard to go from old to young at all, and fat to healthy as quickly as putting on a seatbelt.
Not driving = restricting exposure to wrecking
the crap we are doing = restricting exposure to sickness.
As for as the analogy seatbelts v. not driving, what seatbelts were available for this? Not being fat and old? pretty hard to go from old to young at all, and fat to healthy as quickly as putting on a seatbelt.
Not driving = restricting exposure to wrecking
the crap we are doing = restricting exposure to sickness.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:38 am to East Coast Band
quote:
Now she is telling us not to go to a drugstore unless you must.
When will I ever go to a drugstore if I didn’t have to go?
This has been one of my favorite things during all of this. Do people have so much free time on their hands that they are just going to drugstores and Walmart or a grocery store just to hang out? I mean, I don't go anywhere or do anything unless I have to in my everyday life.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:39 am to Antonio Moss
quote:Well the range is between 3 and 3 millions, so let's hold up on giving them a W there.
Nearly every single metric has fallen within the range (including projected peaks).
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