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Message
re: Experts finally admitting that Tigerdroppings was right all along
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:52 am to lsupride87
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:52 am to lsupride87
quote:
his is my issue with the projections and you. The "range" has been ridiculous
Obviously, the range from March 26th was going to be wide because of the lack of data - it was the outset of the spread. There is no other way to project.
That doesn't mean the model is wrong, it means it is wide because of the lack of data.
It has narrowed within the original range since.
quote:
No shite it fell in the range And thats fine, you have huge ranges because the truth is you(the experts) dont have a clue. That is not a big deal, but when you dont have a clue and you have a range wide as the grand canyon, just be honest you dont have a clue and not keep pointing to the upper end of the range only
First, I'm not an expert is statistics. I don't have much of a background in it but understand basic principles.
Second, it was not the statistical modelers touting the upper range. It was journalist and politicians.
I don't understand people getting so upset because the models have narrowed in favorable direction for society.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 8:54 am
4
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:53 am to Privateer 2007
She's right on both counts.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:53 am to Antonio Moss
quote:People are upset because they have been fed bullshite on why they are out of a job
I don't understand people getting so upset because the models have narrowed in favorable direction for society.
You have the following image as your hurricane cone. And then you make statements and broad changes in spending etc etc to send all resources to Houston because that is the area in the range you focus on. Then, the Hurricane hits Charleston, and you brag because its still in your "range"........
People will no longer trust you
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 8:56 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:54 am to Penrod
I posted a few weeks back that this would be gone in 90 to 120 days. I was called stupid and many told me that millions were going to die and this was our new normal until a vaccine emerges in a few years at best.
Looks like 90 to 120 days is turning out to be pretty accurate and this model can still be revised down as it has been previously.
All of the wishcasters on here should be ashamed of acting all giddy over the thought of millions of Americans dying.
Looks like 90 to 120 days is turning out to be pretty accurate and this model can still be revised down as it has been previously.
All of the wishcasters on here should be ashamed of acting all giddy over the thought of millions of Americans dying.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 9:02 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:54 am to ell_13
quote:
Love auto analogies.
Me too, and I'm better at them.
quote:
Who’s to blame when those people get in a wreck a die?
Depends. What if the other driver is drunk? What if they're driving 100 mph and run a light.
Someone not buckling up doesn't absolve you of being a jackass.
quote:
Yet I’m being “reckless” because I let my 6 yo play with another 6 yo in our neighborhood once a week.
Both can be stupid and selfish things to do.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:55 am to Penrod
quote:If you are using these graphs as the support for going back to work now, please understand that the graphs are based on projections of full social distancing through May.
Time to go back to work!!!
I'm not saying we shouldn't implement a plan to get people back to work on a more expedited time frame, just not sure what the op intend.
I think we have to get massive serological antibody testing out within the next 3 weeks, combined with increased testing for the virus, combined with a strategic relaxing of the restrictions so hopefully we can be close to a semblance of normal by July 1.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 8:57 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:55 am to terriblegreen
quote:government doesnt give up control once they have it
However, expect restrictions to continue for a while.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:56 am to EllEssYou45
quote:
You're that idiot who bitches about seatbelt laws, then cites a reduction in deaths from car accidents as proof that they weren't needed in the first place
This analogy is perfect.
But instead of using seatbelts to save lives, we just make people stop driving.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:56 am to lsupride87
quote:
People are upset because they have been fed bullshite on why they are out of a job
I don't see how anyone can look at the data and say its bullshite. All of the evidence suggests that the strict regulations have resulted in the very thing it sought to do - limit the effect of disease on hospital systems in order to reduce deaths. Which, in turn, will allow everyone to get back to work quicker.
I don't think there is anyway to look at the data (especially Louisiana's R(0) rate 14 days ago) and believe we would still be seeing these results without the restrictions.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:57 am to Penrod
Is this including convention center beds?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:57 am to Penrod
quote:
Now the peak was 5 days AGO!!!!
It says the peak is april 15th. Was that 5 days ago?
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 8:58 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:57 am to stout
And yet they all get to vote...
Scary, huh?
The time for most people to use critical thinking skills, especially in a tough situation, has passed.
Just easier to panic or act on the emotion of the moment.
Scary, huh?
The time for most people to use critical thinking skills, especially in a tough situation, has passed.
Just easier to panic or act on the emotion of the moment.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:58 am to ell_13
Yes, you are. Its no different than going through life without wearing a seatbelt.
I drive 30K-40K miles per year and have only been in 2 accidents in the last 20 years. With those numbers, there is a .0025% chance that I will get in an accident averaging 10 miles per trip (which is high). I am almost 1000 times more likely to get Covid than get in an accident.
I drive 30K-40K miles per year and have only been in 2 accidents in the last 20 years. With those numbers, there is a .0025% chance that I will get in an accident averaging 10 miles per trip (which is high). I am almost 1000 times more likely to get Covid than get in an accident.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:58 am to MAGA
quote:
But instead of using seatbelts to save lives, we just make people stop driving.
Like I said, I'm better at them.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:58 am to EllEssYou45
quote:that doesn’t absolved you from not wearing the seatbelt.
Depends. What if the other driver is drunk? What if they're driving 100 mph and run a light.
quote:My kid could be at daycare instead and be exposed to 50+ kids. We are being asked to limit interaction. Letting my kid have a play date won’t kill anyone who wouldn’t die from this anyway. The fact people think that’s possible is fricking retarded.
Both can be stupid and selfish things to do.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:59 am to TejasHorn
quote:you are an idiot
Send everyone back to work, reopen all the restaurants, etc. on May 1.
...and we'd be right back in the same place (probably worse) by May 15.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:59 am to Penrod
My fear mongering MIL keeps telling us that the “ upcoming” weeks are going to be the worst.
Now she is telling us not to go to a drugstore unless you must.
When will I ever go to a drugstore if I didn’t have to go?
Now she is telling us not to go to a drugstore unless you must.
When will I ever go to a drugstore if I didn’t have to go?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:59 am to Antonio Moss
quote:Many people have staked out a position based on their particular world view and the evidence is going to support that position regardless (i.e. confirmation bias at work). And all sides are going to say the others are the ones exercising confirmation bias.
All of the evidence suggests that the strict regulations have resulted in the very thing it sought to do - limit the effect of disease on hospital systems in order to reduce deaths. Which, in turn, will allow everyone to get back to work quicker.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 9:01 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:59 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
I don't understand people getting so upset because the models have narrowed in favorable direction for society.
I get it. People are stressed and worried for their own financial future. If someone has lost their job over the economy slowing, and if they perceive that slowing economy to be an overreaction, then it makes sense. Their perception of the situation is their reality, and no explaining will get through.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:59 am to Penrod
Crawfish boils and open bars 
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