re: Deep South Christmas COLD

Nick Mik's update from this afternoon on the cold

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
Louisiana is doing Louisiana things as northwest parts of the state are seeing sleet mixing in with the rain with temperatures in the upper 40s. Dry air just above the ground can make for some weird weather, and it certainly has today. I don’t think we will see sleet around Alexandria, as it’s close to 60 degrees, but dry air likes to be a bit of a show off, so we shall see. Clearly, whatever happens, it’ll be liquid soon after it reaches the ground, and travel won’t be impacted. The best chance to see a few sleet pellets remains north of a Many to Natchitoches to Winnfield to Olla line.

Beyond that, and what I’m confident most of you are concerned with is the blast of cold air that’s coming straight from the Arctic to our backyard. The problem for winter fans is that models keep trending deeper, and colder with this airmass, meaning it could be difficult to squeeze out any winter precipitation. So let’s start with the cold. I wouldn’t be surprised if we spent 60-72 hours below freezing. I know Forest Hill just experienced a tornado, but if you own a nursery, you need to plan for this now. 2-3 days of below freezing temperatures, without warming above freezing during the day, with lows easily dropping to the 15-20 degree range are possible. So nurseries, farmers with sensitive crops, or people with a nice winter garden full of mustard greens need to have all preparations made by Wednesday evening. This front will likely come through sometime Thursday, and temperatures will fall quickly. Some models indicate wind chills around, or even slightly below zero by Thursday night.

Yesterday’s ensembles were more encouraging for wintry weather with the cold, but the trend toward colder air means it’s more likely we won’t see enough moisture, or a storm track far enough north to create winter weather. It’s still absolutely possible, but these last couple of runs of ensembles aren’t as encouraging as what I saw last night. But I do see two opportunities for something festive falling from the sky.

Opportunity number 1 comes behind the Arctic front. As the base of the trough moves through, there could be enough lift in the cold air to create some light snow. This is a low probability event, and it’s 6 days out. It’s something I’m watching trends on, but for now, would only put a 10-15% chance for flakes in our area. That’s actually a respectable chance, but don’t tell the kids.

Opportunity 2 comes around Christmas Day or the 26th. That’s been the stronger signal on models until today. It’s 9-10 days away, which is total fantasy land, and when I’m only really watching trends as opposed to forecast specifics. I wouldn’t even put a chance on something that far out, but your apps are talking about it, and it’s Christmas, so I’ll at least mention this as a non-zero chance.

The one thing that is a virtual lock is incredibly cold air. The most extreme cold models are colder than I’m talking about, but that would require snowpack very nearby, or over our area, so I’m discounting those for now. I’ve posted the Canadian model ensemble numbers. Those are the coldest, and closest to what I think reality will look like. I’ll start updating daily as this has the potential to be a fairly rare, and extreme cold event for our area. I’m watching this so closely that I worry I won’t get anything else done for the next 10 days. Good for you all, but my wife is ready to clean this house, so I’m going to cut this “short”. We’ll talk tomorrow unless it starts sleeting tonight. Let me know if you see any winter fun this evening!

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Dumb question, but around what temperature and duration of said temp do people really need to worry about busted pipes?

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Generally, 24 hours, or if it doesn't get above freezing for a day. That particularly applies to homes that you are not in much, or will be away from. During extended freezes, if you are in the home, living as normal, you won't need to drip faucets in the daytime. Your daily routine is enough. Drip them at night, though, to be on the safe side.

Closing your outside vents if you are in a pier and beam home helps greatly. Making sure crawl spaces are covered well. Wrap or cover any exposed hydrants. I run an electric oil heater on low in the bathroom of my shop when it gets really cold. Supplemental heat on/near your washing machine or other supply lines, if they are on an outside wall, doesn't hurt, either.

nothing more than a hard freeze during the christmas timeframe

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Run the dishwasher on a 4 hour delay before going to bed helps.

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I don't think she's gonna like waiting that long.

I'm going to go ahead and check in as safe now.

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Based on this current forecast

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You’ll be fine

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current forecast

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Will change

Don’t make decisions this far out. Just keep monitoring it

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Yeah but you dont get this particular upper level set up across the Arctic very often.

Its a couple of times a decade type stuff.

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I'd like to believe you, but...

2018, two separate outbreaks, one in the low teens and one in single digits.

2021, a crippling snow/ice storm with temperatures below freezing for a week.

2022???

How about that 62deg daytime then 18deg night? That's nutty

As long as people wrap pipes and run water they won’t freeze