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A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:06 pm
quote:
The Simulation Argument posed by Bostrom suggests that we may be living inside a sophisticated computer simulation. If posthuman civilizations eventually have both the capability and desire to generate such Bostrom-like simulations, then the number of simulated realities would greatly exceed the one base reality, ostensibly indicating a high probability that we do not live in said base reality. In this work, it is argued that since the hypothesis that such simulations are technically possible remains unproven, statistical calculations need to consider not just the number of state spaces, but the intrinsic model uncertainty. This is achievable through a Bayesian treatment of the problem, which is presented here. Using Bayesian model averaging, it is shown that the probability that we are sims is in fact less than 50%, tending towards that value in the limit of an infinite number of simulations. This result is broadly indifferent as to whether one conditions upon the fact that humanity has not yet birthed such simulations, or ignore it. As argued elsewhere, it is found that if humanity does start producing such simulations, then this would radically shift the odds and make it very probably we are in fact simulated.
LINK
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:10 pm to Jim Rockford
author needs to get laid and smoke a bowl
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:10 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
we may be living inside a sophisticated computer simulation.
Gay
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:12 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
a high probability
Yep.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:12 pm to Jim Rockford
Just curious because I really don’t know the answer. Did ancient philosophers debate or suggest this reality ? What is the basis for this theory ? It seems fascinating because I studied some philosophy 35 years ago and I never came across this simulation argument.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:12 pm to Jim Rockford
I’m about to F5 another hurricane. You should not be pursuing this line of thought.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:14 pm to Klingler7
I’m sure these ideas don’t sit well with those who deal with schizophrenia.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:18 pm to Klingler7
quote:
Just curious because I really don’t know the answer. Did ancient philosophers debate or suggest this reality ? What is the basis for this theory ? It seems fascinating because I studied some philosophy 35 years ago and I never came across this simulation argument.
It's simply a modern iteration of the "brain in a vat" hypothet, which itself is a modern iteration of the "evil demon" hypothet, which itself is a modern iteration of Plato's Cave.
It's simply the newest in the very long line of thought experiments regarding what is "knowledge" and whether we can trust our perception of reality.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 4:33 pm to Jim Rockford
The guy in control of mine seems to jerk off a lot.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 5:04 pm to Jim Rockford
If they want people to not think it’s a simulation they need to work on Saturdays. They still don’t feel right.
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