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Predicting 2018 Vegas win totals for all 32 NFL teams
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:51 am
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:51 am
LINK
quote:
New Orleans Saints
Projected 2018 over/under: 9.5 wins (Over even, Under -120)
The Saints' defense came to life in 2017, and young stars such as Marshon Lattimore and Sheldon Rankins should continue to improve in 2018, but it's hard to believe it will remain a top-10 unit. Teams that improve as much as the Saints did -- they jumped from 31st to eighth in defensive DVOA -- often decline the following season. It's difficult to imagine Alvin Kamara being as productive as he was on a per-touch basis next season, and Drew Brees will be 39 years old. Age gets every quarterback eventually, and Brees threw shorter passes and relied more heavily on his receivers in 2017 than ever before. The Saints should still be good, but there's certainly risk here.
quote:
Atlanta Falcons
Projected 2018 over/under: 9 wins
The Falcons brought back virtually their entire personnel core, but they didn't get remotely similar results with a revamped staff of assistants; after outscoring teams by 8.4 points per game in 2016, they only topped their opposition by an average of 2.4 points in 2017. They only hit 10 wins by virtue of a pair of breathless last-second victories in September, including a drop in the end zone by the Bears in Week 1 and the Golden Tate 10-second runoff play in Week 3. Atlanta's ninth-ranked offense by DVOA was unfairly blamed for the struggles of a defense that finished 22nd, so if the offense does play as poorly in 2018 as people perceived it to perform in 2017, things could get worse.
quote:
Carolina Panthers
Projected 2018 over/under: 9 wins (Over -120, Under Even)
The Panthers enter an uncertain offseason as Jerry Richardson prepares to sell the team, which might impact their ability to upgrade during the spring. It would be nice to bring back Julius Peppers, who might retire after an 11-sack season, but it seems likely Carolina will lose star guard Andrew Norwell to free agency after signing fellow guard Trai Turner to an extension in July. Carolina drove to that 11-5 record with a 7-1 mark in close games, and that sort of dramatic performance in one-score games drove precipitous declines for the Panthers in 2014 and 2016.
quote:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected 2018 over/under: 6.5 wins
The Bucs underachieved in 2017, in part because they went 3-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including four such losses to playoff teams. Numbers suggest the Bucs should improve, but it's difficult to see a high ceiling for Tampa Bay when it is bringing back frustrating coach Dirk Koetter and is still stuck in a division with three stacked teams in Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans. A healthy season from Jameis Winston -- who posted the league's seventh-best passer rating after returning from injury in Week 13 -- would help.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:53 am to TechDawg2007
Patriots 12. Seems high
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:56 am to TechDawg2007
quote:
quarterback eventually, and Brees threw shorter passes
Except his downfield passer rating was incredible this year...
Some of these people are tards. Bet the over on 9-7 or 10-6
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:59 am to TH03
We should have been 13-3 this year. @Atlanta was crap, and the @Bucs game was just giving up at the end of the season once we found out we won the division.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 11:09 am to Bonkers119
That's always tricky because you could switch the Redskins game too. We played the Packers without Rodgers. Bears got cheated a TD.
Our record is what our record is.
Our record is what our record is.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 12:28 pm to TechDawg2007
quote:
It's difficult to imagine Alvin Kamara being as productive as he was on a per-touch basis next season
Something I hope everyone realizes.
6.1 YPC
10.2 AVG per reception
are amazing numbers, he's going to regress at something and I'd bet its going to be his YPC. His AVG will remain elevated as long as he continues to split wide and run WR routes.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 12:54 pm to htran90
Yep, this will likely happen. Hopefully, though, we'll make up for that loss in production by snagging a new TE/WR target that will rape defenses by running up the seam, something this past offense greatly missed. Having a legitimate TE would only create more opportunities for Kamara in the passing game too.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 12:58 pm to JGuidry7
quote:
Yep, this will likely happen. Hopefully, though, we'll make up for that loss in production by snagging a new TE/WR target that will rape defenses by running up the seam, something this past offense greatly missed. Having a legitimate TE would only create more opportunities for Kamara in the passing game too.
or a complete TE can help spring kamara and ingram for more big plays
Posted on 1/19/18 at 1:02 pm to htran90
Definitely true. Hill, and especially Hooman, I think have done a pretty commendable job of run blocking, though.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 1:42 pm to TechDawg2007
quote:
but it's hard to believe it will remain a top-10 unit. Teams that improve as much as the Saints did -- they jumped from 31st to eighth in defensive DVOA -- often decline the following season.
I see what they are saying but do teams that show that much improvement lose 6+ starters and multiple contributors to injury and not maintain the improvement once those key players return from injury or are replaced with healthy newcomers?
Posted on 1/19/18 at 2:31 pm to Lithium
quote:I hope this is a joke. They’ve won at least 12 every year since 09.
Patriots 12. Seems high
Posted on 1/20/18 at 8:26 am to Solo Cam
quote:
I hope this is a joke. They’ve won at least 12 every year since 09.
At some point your 40 something qb is going to hit a wall or take a legit injury. Over 12 wins not exactly easy with a back up qb. IMO you’re basically banking on Brady being healthy and business as usual when the chances start to annually creep up that it won’t be.
Posted on 1/20/18 at 9:33 am to htran90
I hope we don't draft a TE first round....look at OJ Howard..he had an OK rookie season... definitely was overhyped. I'd rather take best available
Posted on 1/20/18 at 9:45 am to TechDawg2007
Is it just me or will age only affect Brees? When they post these articles why is Brees getting older going to affect the Saints, but Brady & Roethlisberger never seem to be affected by age?
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