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Started By
Message
Draft value is a very dumb thing to care about
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:02 am
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:02 am
This league is about players making plays. You don’t get extra points for a 5th round guy becoming an all pro.
Who cares what the “experts” had guys ranked.
Our staff needed to fill holes on the team and they got a guy who they think can likely be our 3rd DE this year and eventually replace Cam Jordan or Davenport, they got a guy they think can start at LB right away, a guy who is probably our 3rd corner and eventual starter, and probably our favorite pick the Kentucky tackle who should provide great depth for both tackle spots and maybe even guard.
If we come away with 3 good starters, the draft was a home run.
Who cares what the “experts” had guys ranked.
Our staff needed to fill holes on the team and they got a guy who they think can likely be our 3rd DE this year and eventually replace Cam Jordan or Davenport, they got a guy they think can start at LB right away, a guy who is probably our 3rd corner and eventual starter, and probably our favorite pick the Kentucky tackle who should provide great depth for both tackle spots and maybe even guard.
If we come away with 3 good starters, the draft was a home run.
6
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:07 am to Lsujacket66
Honestly, can’t you apply this theory to college recruiting as well?
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:15 am to Lsujacket66
quote:
Draft value
Explain to me like i'm a 5 year old the difference between Draft Value and Best Player Available?
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:21 am to Lsujacket66
Draft value is important. The Saints care very much about it.
But they ain’t playing the game with the “experts” big board.
But they ain’t playing the game with the “experts” big board.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:36 am to drake20
quote:
But they ain’t playing the game with the “experts” big board.
More importantly, the experts don't go back and re-evaluate their old big boards 3/5/10 years later to discuss where they hit & missed, or where teams actually reached or got a steal. They will brag when they got 1 right but the teams let the player slide; and occasionally are called out when they make big stances and miss (Kiper w/ Dilfer & Clausen stick out). But for the most part, they just move on to the next year
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:38 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
the experts don't go back and re-evaluate their old big boards 3/5/10 years later to discuss where they hit & missed, or where teams actually reached or got a steal. They will brag when they got 1 right but the teams let the player slide; and occasionally are called out when they make big stances and miss (Kiper w/ Dilfer & Clausen stick out). But for the most part, they just move on to the next year
So all misses have no outside factors like organizational fit, development, injury luck, playing opportunity, etc.?
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:43 am to Lsujacket66
quote:
This league is about players making plays. You don’t get extra points for a 5th round guy becoming an all pro.
Who cares what the “experts” had guys ranked.
Our staff needed to fill holes on the team and they got a guy who they think can likely be our 3rd DE this year and eventually replace Cam Jordan or Davenport, they got a guy they think can start at LB right away, a guy who is probably our 3rd corner and eventual starter, and probably our favorite pick the Kentucky tackle who should provide great depth for both tackle spots and maybe even guard.
If we come away with 3 good starters, the draft was a home run.
You are ignoring the opportunity loss of getting even more players (presumably by trading down when you can) thus increasing your chances of landing those 3 starters...or even finding a 4th...or having capital to move up to grab that other player you wouldn't otherwise have a chance to draft.
It's obviously not easy. You have to have an understanding of where people will go. You have to be confident in your analysis so that if the guy you love unsuspectedly goes before you draft, you can fill it with a quality player. But, if you can navigate it well, it's basically what makes you an elite franchise.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:50 am to moneyg
There is also opportunity cost on missing the guy you are confident in, because you got cute and/ or greedy and decided to trade back for additional capital (likely a low probability pick) and missed.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:56 am to Weekend Warrior79
would be a solid study for someone to go back and grade their draft grades
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:06 am to Chad504boy
quote:
Explain to me like i'm a 5 year old the difference between Draft Value and Best Player Available?
Value is relative to where you made the pick. They "claim" our first round pick is not a "value" pick because everyone was picking first round talent around us and we picked what they considered to be second round talent. If someone picks a supposed top ten player at 16, it's a "value" pick.
Best player available is exactly what it sounds like. The one guy.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:10 am to lsutigers1992
quote:
Value is relative to where you made the pick. They "claim" our first round pick is not a "value" pick because everyone was picking first round talent around us and we picked what they considered to be second round talent. If someone picks a supposed top ten player at 16, it's a "value" pick.
Best player available is exactly what it sounds like. The one guy.
i appreciate the effort. but best player available is always a team's best value to them as well.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:12 am to Kicks30
quote:
There is also opportunity cost on missing the guy you are confident in, because you got cute and/ or greedy and decided to trade back for additional capital (likely a low probability pick) and missed.
Not only this, but you also need someone to trade with and there’s no guarantee someone wanted to come up to 28.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:19 am to DaRagingTiger
quote:
Honestly, can’t you apply this theory to college recruiting as well?
Works even better there. Much more common for a college player to change positions.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:27 am to Lsujacket66
Of course it’s important
You don’t take a guy in the 1st that you can get in the 5th.
You maximize your talent by assigning value & drafting for that value.
Not saying the Saints were right or wrong. But of course value matters.
You don’t take a guy in the 1st that you can get in the 5th.
You maximize your talent by assigning value & drafting for that value.
Not saying the Saints were right or wrong. But of course value matters.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:30 am to BilJ
quote:
would be a solid study for someone to go back and grade their draft grades
From 2015
quote:
Baltimore Ravens: A-
Top needs: CB, TE, WR, DL
The guys will rib me as a Baltimore homer, but I call them as I see them, and I know McShay, Polian, Riddick and the rest like this draft too. They Ravens needed new weapons in the passing game at both wide receiver and tight end, and they got them. Breshad Perriman could have been off the board by No. 14, and I wouldn't have blinked. To get a big (218 pounds), fast (sub-4.3 speed) big-play threat such as this at No. 26 is a great get. You bet Perriman needs to be more consistent with his hands, but there's some Dez Bryant to his game. Maxx Williams was a player the Ravens coveted, and to get him at No. 55 overall was good value. Both he and Perriman could be impact players from the rookie class, which is rare on a good team. Carl Davis provides needed rotation depth on the D-line and again looks like good value -- he was my No. 34 player on the Big Board, and Baltimore got him at No. 90. Za'Darius Smith can rush the passer, and Tray Walker is an interesting, 6-foot-2 CB prospect who could emerge with seasoning. Buck Allen provides needed RB depth, and Nick Boyle is a tight end who can stick because he'll actually block people, which isn't that common anymore at tight end.
This post was edited on 5/4/21 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:38 am to lsutigers1992
From 2016
I think I'm going to just post this every time somebody brings up Mel Kiper from now on.
quote:
Dallas Cowboys: C
Top needs: DE, CB, WR, QB
I have mixed feelings on this draft class, with huge questions early and several great picks later. I love Ezekiel Elliott as a player -- he's one of the best running back prospects in recent years -- and he's certain to be highly productive behind a fantastic offensive line, but I think a number of running backs would be really good in Dallas, and that goes for a number of players drafted well into Day 3. Great player, poor value range. Jaylon Smith can be special if he gets healthy, and would have been one of the top three players on my final Big Board if so. But this is two straight years Dallas has taken a major risk in Round 2 (Randy Gregory last year). Hopefully it works out this time. I'll be rooting like heck for that kid.
Maliek Collins is needed help on the D-line, and Charles Tapper is a sleeper because he played out of his ideal position a lot at Oklahoma, and Dallas could get something from him. Dallas was interested in getting into range for Paxton Lynch, and also missed out on a chance to draft Connor Cook when the Raiders traded up. Dak Prescott is a solid guy to have on the bench, but I question the starting upside, and I had Brandon Allen ranked higher. One I really love: Darius Jackson is a great sleeper RB out of Eastern Michigan. Rico Gathers is a great coin-flip late. The Baylor basketball player hasn't played football in years but has tremendous size. "Go follow No. 82 around, kid." One question: Did they do enough at cornerback? I'd say no.
I think I'm going to just post this every time somebody brings up Mel Kiper from now on.
This post was edited on 5/4/21 at 12:18 pm
Posted on 5/4/21 at 12:25 pm to lsutigers1992
From 2017
Another gem
quote:
Kansas City Chiefs: C+
Top needs: Running back, inside linebacker, quarterback
As I said on Thursday night, this class will hinge on Patrick Mahomes because Kansas City bet big that he's the successor to Alex Smith. Giving up a third-round pick and next year's first to move up 17 spots was a ton for a team with immediate needs elsewhere and some defenders getting up there in age. Mahomes has a high ceiling, but he's going to have to learn how NFL offenses are run, and the Chiefs are going to have to rebuild his mechanics from the ground up. Andy Reid and John Dorsey know what they're getting (and know what they're doing) and see some Brett Favre in Mahomes. And they have a capable quarterback in Alex Smith signed until 2019. This is a pick -- and grade -- that could look like great or silly in five or six years. The good news for the Chiefs is they hope the first-round pick they're giving up in 2018 is in the 28-32 range.
Another gem
This post was edited on 5/4/21 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 5/4/21 at 12:54 pm to Lsujacket66
It's just another measuring stick for me. Too many get wrapped into just that one indicator that is based on someone else's projection.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 3:20 pm to Chad504boy
quote:This is definitely not correct as an absolute.
i appreciate the effort. but best player available is always a team's best value to them as well.
Don't get me wrong, probably 95% of the time I think you go BPA over need.
But for example, the Chiefs should never take a QB in the 1st round, even if he's BPA. There are other examples that fit this criteria, again it's less likely but just not an absolute that you always go BPA
Posted on 5/4/21 at 3:21 pm to lsutigers1992
quote:
Dallas was interested in getting into range for Paxton Lynch, and also missed out on a chance to draft Connor Cook when the Raiders traded up. Dak Prescott is a solid guy to have on the bench, but I question the starting upside, and I had Brandon Allen ranked higher.
quote:
Giving up a third-round pick and next year's first to move up 17 spots was a ton for a team with immediate needs elsewhere and some defenders getting up there in age. Mahomes has a high ceiling, but he's going to have to learn how NFL offenses are run, and the Chiefs are going to have to rebuild his mechanics from the ground up
But Sporting News said we reached with our 1st round pick!!!!
This post was edited on 5/4/21 at 3:23 pm
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