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Mrwhodat
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Dec 2015
1629 posts

Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
Posted by Darin Gantt on January 2, 2018, 10:44 AM EST PFT

quote:

Beating a team three times in one season is hard to do. Unless it isn’t.

One of the conventional wisdoms about the difficulty of dominating opponents you see on a regular basis doesn’t hold up to actual math, which is good news for people worried about the Saints after they swept the Panthers in the regular season and have to face them in the wild card round Sunday.

Via ESPN.com, since the 1970 merger, 20 teams have had to face a divisional opponent in the playoffs after beating them twice in the regular season. Thirteen of those teams won the third matchup (65 percent).

So while it might not necessarily mean anything to the Saints and the Panthers this year, perhaps it will at least kill a cliche.

The last team to lose in such a situation was the 2007 Cowboys, who beat the Giants twice in the regular season but lost in the divisional round, as the Giants went on to win the Super Bowl.


mylsuhat
Chicago Cubs Fan
NOLA
Member since Mar 2008
43298 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
I don't think those numbers suggest that it is "not as hard as it sounds"


You can assume that a team that sweeps another team is better than them. So even though they're better they only win the 3rd game, 65% of the time.


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311
Bear Is Dead
LSU Fan
Monroe
Member since Nov 2007
4545 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
I’d much rather be the home team at 2-0 trying for the hat trick than the road team at 0-2 trying to get to 1-2.


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300
htran90
New Orleans Saints Fan
BC
Member since Dec 2012
18120 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
All I'm saying is, our LBers and Vonn Bell better show up


Mrwhodat
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Dec 2015
1629 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

All I'm saying is, our LBers and Vonn Bell better show up


There is no reason for any of our players to hold anything back.

I expect a full effort.


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30
25 Point Lead
Member since Nov 2017
574 posts
 Online 

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
I bet a lot of those games were close to in the regular season for the teams that lost while going 2-0


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30
25 Point Lead
Member since Nov 2017
574 posts
 Online 

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

All I'm saying is, our LBers and Vonn Bell better show up


Yep, this is the game where not having Klein or Vaccaro scares me the most


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noonan
USA Fan
Nassau Bay, TX
Member since Aug 2005
30105 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
So 100% winning percentage in the first two games and 65% in the third? And that's an argument that it's not tough?


25 Point Lead
Member since Nov 2017
574 posts
 Online 

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

So 100% winning percentage in the first two games and 65% in the third? And that's an argument that it's not tough?


It means beating that team the 3rd time is the more likely outcome, despite what others say

It is still a playoff game against a good team.
This post was edited on 1/2 at 1:53 pm


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Lexman1
LSU Fan
Central Louisiana
Member since Oct 2016
1970 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
That doesn’t take into account that we lost Okafor, Klein and Vaccaro after we swept the Panthers. That changes everything!


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lsupride87
LSU Fan
River Ridge
Member since Dec 2007
41348 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

So 100% winning percentage in the first two games and 65% in the third? And that's an argument that it's not tough?


Are you serious clark?

According to the data, we have a 65% chance of winning

What do you think the data shows for teams that are 1-1 going against each other again in the playoffs? I bet the odds of either team winning is alot less than 65%.......


25 Point Lead
Member since Nov 2017
574 posts
 Online 

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

That doesn’t take into account that we lost Okafor, Klein and Vaccaro after we swept the Panthers. That changes everything!


Okafor played 0 snaps against Carolina in week 13

Lattimore played 0 snaps against Carolina weeks 3 and 13


Teo isn't a drastic drop off from Klein, and having Lattimore in the secondary >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Vaccaro
This post was edited on 1/2 at 2:41 pm


mdomingue
LSU Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
4622 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

Teo isn't a drastic drop off from Klein,


Ehh, I think he is definitely a drop off in the passing game. In the running game, no real drop off at all.

quote:

having Lattimore in the secondary >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Vaccaro


True, particularly at this point in Vaccaro's career. The groin and wrist injuries took there toll on his season. Apparently the groin injury he's been playing through is essentially the same injury that Klein has. He underwent surgery for it on the 25th. But ideally, this is not a choice we have to make. Both healthy in the secondary is potentially spectacular.


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Jake88
George Mason Fan
LSU/Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2005
29701 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

So 100% winning percentage in the first two games and 65% in the third?
No. That 100% was never !00% before either of the first two games. Your 100% is in retrospect and never was reality. It might have been 40% chance for the Saints to win in Carolina and 55% to beat them in the Dome. Now, It's up to 65%. That's getting better.


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noonan
USA Fan
Nassau Bay, TX
Member since Aug 2005
30105 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

What do you think the data shows for teams that are 1-1 going against each other again in the playoffs? I bet the odds of either team winning is alot less than 65%.......


Um... 50%

My post was half joking. My point was that a 65% winning percentage is hardly reassuring especially because we don't know anything about those 20 games. I would think that if the two teams went into the third game with equal records that that 65% might come down a bit. I could be wrong.

I'm any case, you have 20 cases in which teams went 2-0.

Teams that went 40-0 the first two times they met only went 13-7 when having to play the same team for a 3rd time.

I that's a pretty big drop off.
This post was edited on 1/2 at 9:38 pm


UptownnMike
New Orleans Saints Fan
Uptown New Orleans
Member since Aug 2015
2639 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
No one ever talks about how lattimore played in neither of the 2 wins.


ETA
Nvm I see 25 did. We’re really a different team with that dude. That’s a real wildcard in the tough to beat a team 3 times argument. It’s almost like the panthers O is playing a different team. Harder to scheme as much on the other tendencies from the first 2 game when we do different things with lattimore.
This post was edited on 1/2 at 8:58 pm


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noonan
USA Fan
Nassau Bay, TX
Member since Aug 2005
30105 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
Honestly, I think it's more about just being the home team.

Just using Google to find info on these 20 games looks like home teams are 12-4 in completing the sweep. That means going on the road they were 1-3.

It's a good thing Atlanta beat Carolina.
This post was edited on 1/2 at 10:05 pm


NoSaint
Member since Jun 2011
5000 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

using Google to find info on these 20 games looks like home teams are 12-4 in completing the sweep. That means going on the road they were 1-3.


That’s likely a major factor.

But an add on is that if you beat a team twice and still face them on the road for game three— in the remaining 14 games (maybe fewer for the older examples) the team was at least 3 games ahead to be the higher seed.


noonan
USA Fan
Nassau Bay, TX
Member since Aug 2005
30105 posts

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
I can agree with that.

Also, in our case with Carolina, they were two games ahead.

I think we are the better team and think we will win, but to me Carolina is the team I worry most about in the nfc.
This post was edited on 1/3 at 11:14 am


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25 Point Lead
Member since Nov 2017
574 posts
 Online 

re: Beating a team three times not as hard as it sounds
quote:

That’s likely a major factor.

But an add on is that if you beat a team twice and still face them on the road for game three— in the remaining 14 games (maybe fewer for the older examples) the team was at least 3 games ahead to be the higher seed.



And if you look at a lot of those first 2 games, they were very close, even last second or OT wins.


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