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PrimeTime Money
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Houston, Texas, USA
Member since Nov 2012
26088 posts
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Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
There are certain things that make a winning NBA team. Simplistically, a team needs to be in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. That should be the goal.

This team is ranked #10 in offensive rating, and #27 in defensive rating.

Historically, teams with great offenses have a rotation of players who all shoot 55% TS% or better, with a few players at or above 60% TS%. You can get away with one sub-55% TS% player as long as they are a defensive specialist.

The Pelicans rotation players who fit that criteria are:

Jaxson Hayes 70%
Zion Williamson 65.2%
Steven Adams 60.1%
Willy Hernangomez 59.1%
Brandon Ingram 58.5%
Josh Hart 56.6%
Lonzo Ball 55.8%

Pretty solid. Good enough for a top 10 offense, but that’s still a few guys short of a full rotation above 55%. In order to move up from #10, the Pelicans need 2 or 3 more role players with TS% over 55%.

The one area where they need to make the biggest leap is defensively. Another area is 3-pt shooting. Pelicans rank #23 in 3-pt percentage and #25 in attempts. They need guys who can play defense and hit the 3. They need some dogs.


htran90
New Orleans Saints Fan
BC
Member since Dec 2012
26717 posts

re: Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
we need a true 3pt sniper.

ingram and ball, although both are good shooters are nowhere near great or elite that makes those playoff caliber teams elite.

defense needs to improve too, but that takes time and another solid piece


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England_Pelican
Member since Apr 2018
395 posts

re: Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
You need advanced stats to tell us we need to be better on defense and shooting the 3?
This post was edited on 5/2 at 11:21 am


oncealurker
New Orleans Saints Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2013
4070 posts

re: Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
Right


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Louisianabound88
LSU Fan
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Member since Dec 2016
884 posts
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re: Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
Chris Paul/ Rondo type guard that takes over and make winning plays in the last 3 minutes of 4th quarters


JohnnyKilroy
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
28213 posts
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re: Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
Chris Paul if agree with. We’d be a 4 seed probably at this point.


Rondo would probably have publicly demanded a trade back in January.


saints5021
USA Fan
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
11358 posts

re: Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
Soooo, what I take out of this is we need all new players, minus one or two.


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TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
54527 posts
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re: Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
Shamit put out this graphic today

quote:

Shamit Dua @FearTheBrown 1h

Level 1:
Decided to plot this for all players with at least 1000 poss. played. Highlighted quadrant is top 25%ile in both assists/100 and self creation. The findings are interesting.

Bottom left quadrant has a lot of shooters and 3+D guys. Bottom right quadrant has as lot of centers




I'd love to see the list of names in the highlighted area. That's the kind of player the Pels need. Obviously you can't get Lukas and won't want the Westbrooks, but maybe some of the guys in the middle to back are acquirable and could give you enough self/team creation to make the crunch time offense work.


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Stiles
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2017
2376 posts

re: Using advanced stats to see what the Pelicans need to win
quote:

what the Pelicans need to win

A miracle.


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