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re: Pop’s Spurs @ Uncle Al’s Pels

Posted on 1/26/19 at 9:11 pm to
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25405 posts
Posted on 1/26/19 at 9:11 pm to
Check out the game cast where you can see the game flow. Missouri was up by double digits the whole second half then you see the line spike up abruptly with 2 minutes left for LSU.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 10:17 am to
get ready for the "Okafor could be a real piece" because he's putting up good offensive stats in meaningless games

TBW had this

quote:

The knock on Jah’s career has always been a lack of defensive awareness and aptitude, but this season he’s doing a good job of changing that trend. In addition to his 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes, Okafor is currently the Pelicans best defender at the rim as opponents have combined to shoot 47.4% at the hoop against him. That’s a much stronger figure than Gobert’s 56.7 FG% allowed at the rim as well as Jordan’s 58.9%. In fact, among all players who have appeared in a minimum of 25 games, no one has recorded a stronger field goals defended at the rim percentage through this point of the season.


i get that writing that the team sucks over and over again is no fun, but this just makes anyone who reads it dumber
This post was edited on 1/27/19 at 10:18 am
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 10:24 am to
This is the downside of hope - and in needing in it.

It keeps you from reality.

Okafor might become a solid 3rd big for a winning team, but anything better than that is blind optimism and putting forward his stats in this stretch is beyond pointless
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12719 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 10:33 am to
quote:

i get that writing that the team sucks over and over again is no fun, but this just makes anyone who reads it dumber


I get what you’re saying. At least it’s not an opinion but rather a small sample size stat. Okafor is arguably the only true bright spot in this season and I’d even argue that it comes with its own darkness i.e. everyone knew he had talent as a #2 overall pick and got into the best shape of his life, so why the hell did it take 30 games for him to play? Also, does he even get this stint of games if he doesn’t absolutely go “you-can’t-ignore-me-anymore” ballistic on the road in Utah?

Some interesting BRef stats:
- 1st on team in TS %
- 2nd on team in WS/48
- 2nd on team in NetRating (2nd O / 3rd D)
- 13th on team in Minutes Played...

ETA: game was in Milwaukee.
This post was edited on 1/27/19 at 1:51 pm
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12719 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 10:41 am to
quote:

Okafor might become a solid 3rd big for a winning team, but anything better than that is blind optimism and putting forward his stats in this stretch is beyond pointless


He’s not even playing heavy starter minutes with Davis/Niko/Randle out and only Diallo as the other big. I think it’s a pretty safe bet to assume the best you could hope for is T-2nd/3rd big on a good team. I say T-2nd because I could see him being fine in a role as a 20-25 minute starter.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 10:48 am to
I look at a guy like MCW -- put up fantastic stats on a depleted team. I am sure their fans were optimistic and saw a future pillar of their foundation. But now we can all see who he is with clearer eyes.

Jah is a great comeback story. A player who is definitely worthy of being in the league. Might even become Kanter-esque. But he gives me no hope for the future. If this team is going to be respectable in the near future it will be because they got a ton for AD and drafted well. It will have nothing to do with Okafor.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 11:03 am to
Okafor should be praised for working to get back to this point. for proving he does belong in the league. those numbers you bring up and the ones in the piece are promising. i'm happy for the guy.

one thing to keep in mind- over the last 4 games, Okafor has played 128 minutes. Pels are a net -15 (115 DRating) when he's on and a + 27 (84 DRating) when he's off. small sample size galore. i hope that changes and we should keep watching, but it is consistent with everything he's done in his career thus far.



the real problem isn't Okafor. it's the way Oleh used the stats there. no one who knows anything would say Okafor is the best rim defender on the Pels. but he does. no one would ever think to mention Gobert and Okafor in the same breath as rim defenders. but he does.

there is nothing wrong with pointing to those numbers and saying, maybe he is improving. let's keep watching.

to just drop those numbers in there in that way is terrible, lazy writing. it makes the reader less informed.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61435 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 11:05 am to
quote:

why the hell did it take 30 games for him to play?


Do you not remember how bad he looked early? I remember one play where a guard drew the defense too him in the paint and all Okafor had to do was take 1 step to the open spot to receive a well delivered pass and make an open layup. But it wound up a turnover because he looked like he was wearing cement shoes and had no prayer at receiving a great pass that ended up out of bounds on the baseline. At that point it looked to me like he was too slow to ever work the way this team wants to play.

To Okafor's credit though he learned the scheme and figured out where he needed to be, but that doesn't happen overnight. There are plenty of things to be upset at Gentry for. Making Okafor prove he was ready I don't think is one those mistakes.
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12719 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

To Okafor's credit though he learned the scheme and figured out where he needed to be, but that doesn't happen overnight. There are plenty of things to be upset at Gentry for. Making Okafor prove he was ready I don't think is one those mistakes.


My main gripe and what I’d assume is other people’s as well is that Diallo would have similar games and make similar mistakes like you just pointed out and got playing time anyways.

I may be applying other similar situations and just assuming the same blind faith was given to other fringe players who’d been here longer. Darius Miller/Hill/Johnson are all equally poor, all for different reasons. Miller should get first crack at those minutes at the 3 due to his perimeter shooting that is so desperately needed on this team, but when that shot isn’t falling, he provides next to nothing. Doesn’t rebound. Doesn’t play defense. Yet he’s gotten more playing time than Hill and Johnson combined. Those guys are at least better but still bad defenders that can make the occasional “spark” play by hustling, put bodies on box outs, and will rebound the basketball. There’s no reason Gentry shouldn’t be using those guys by committee when Miller is having an off night and we’re having to play 4 on 5 basketball.

I also have no confidence that Gentry would have gone to Okafor midseason if he hadn’t of blown up in the Milwaukee game after our frontcourt got hurt...again. We could have been looking at another 10 games before he got another crack at playing time again.

It’s similar to the Niko/Randle starting situation when there’s all sorts of analytics out there that make it pretty obvious who should be starting. You mentioned they were showcasing Randle by letting him stat pad, but that doesn’t carry much water when Randle was almost the exact same player or better coming off the bench earlier in the season. Simply giving him more run than the 22-24 minutes would have likely resulted in the same stat padding you’re referring to.

I could go on and on about rotations with Gentry, but the other major problem I have with him this season is our late game execution and play calling. I remember that stretch of games where AD was playing dominant inside the paint and people were bitching at him for jacking 3s. One game in particular he was just being fed on the left block successfully for 44 minutes, but he ends up taking a right arc 3. Why is he sitting out there? Why are we not consistently feeding him the ball on that left block late where he’s most comfortable? ADs been fine or better passing out of those double teams as well. Instead we get treated to hero ball almost every single game where guys take turns playing iso ball.

Also, what the hell happened to the AD pick and roll this year? One of the main reasons we were competitive in OKC is because we were running pick and rolls with Holiday/Okafor or Diallo and OKC had no answer for the roll man.

I refuse to get pissed at Davis for taking 3s when it’s the coaching staffs responsibility to put these guys in the best possible situation to succeed. You can be mildly annoyed with Davis for not demanding the ball or telling the staff to set him up in the post, but he should not have to do that.

I’m just over it man. I feel like the fans understandably don’t even realize how poor our head coach is because we haven’t seen even an average head coach around here for over a decade. There’s nothing to compare to. Byron Scott, Monty Williams, Alvin Gentry. The previous two aren’t head coaches anymore and likely will never be again. Id be downright shocked if another franchise gave Gentry a shot at their HC position after this stint. So we have 3 head coaches that probably aren’t even top 30 in the country, assuredly not if you count college coaches as well. It’s just downright depressing.

This franchise does not hold its coaches accountable like it would the players. That drives me insane. Like I’ve said before, even the Twolves fired Thibs for much less, and he’s actually proven to be a successful coach over the years, albeit with flaws as well.

There’s absolutely no reason we shouldn’t give Finch a 30 game tryout at this point. At bare minimum, you KNOW at best even if I’m wrong in my criticism that Gentry is an average coach who won’t elevate the team. Let’s actually shoot for finding someone that would actually have a shot at elevating the IQ and results of this team for once instead of settling on mediocre.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 2:07 pm to
I don't think giving Finch 30 games is fair to evaluate him off of. First off, a coach sets up his systems in training camp. You fire Gentry now and bring in Finch, not only does he get no camp but I think there are something like 7 practices left between now and the end of the season. If he does poorly, it would say nothing about how he would do as coach if he gave him the proper tools and time.

And if the record is good, it can be chalked up to poor sample size, players with a fire under their butt do to a firing that would no longer be there in the future, the team finally being healthy, other teams tanking or injured on your schedule, etc

Point is: It wouldn't matter whether he won or lost - because it would give you no future indicators.

You go into the offseason and start from scratch at every main position. Clean slate - interview people after you decide on what kind of culture you want to cultivate and hire the people that fit that culture
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12719 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 2:57 pm to
Some indication is better than no indication. I don’t think if our team all of a sudden had a competent offensive system that featured Davis a little more and got their shite together on defense that the results should be totally written off. I’m not saying that you make a decision based solely on those results, but they should go into consideration in the interview process and get his foot in the door as a candidate.

Although Gentry not getting fired does give us the best chance at a better pick and potentially not making a knee jerk trade with the playoffs out of reach.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 3:09 pm to
And what if its the opposite? What if the players have given up, injuries mount up, and he doesn't get to implement his systems because he has no practices. Then, do you not consider him or consider him less?

Look, I don't care if they fire Gentry and I wouldn't care if they inserted him as coach. But I would not factor the results into whether I hire him in the slightest. Because I can't pick and choose and if he wins, put that in the plus column, but if he loses say that it didn't matter
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12719 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 3:18 pm to
A trial run is the only way I could see them even giving him a legit shot. I don’t know how you sell the fans on a coaching change but promote a guy from a staff that failed miserably this year, injury excuse or not.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 3:24 pm to
There are like 12 fans. And Gentry was sold to the fans and Del Negro almost was (he was the 2nd choice)

Bottom line is that they will hire whoever they want because there won't be some huge backlash, because there are no fans here.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 5:19 pm to
quote:

I don’t think if our team all of a sudden had a competent offensive system that featured Davis a little more


i get the frustration with Gentry's rotations, the defense this year, and late game execution. but the Pels have the 22nd most efficient offense of all time on basketball-reference, just ahead of the 84/85 Lakers.

Davis takes 21 fga/g and has a USG of 30. cleaningtheglass has him taking ~ 70% of his fga either at the rim or short mid range.
This post was edited on 1/27/19 at 5:20 pm
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12719 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 6:15 pm to
When you have a player as transcendent and multi faceted as Davis on a team with no depth and true distributor, he shouldn’t be 15th in the league in USG % among the actual stars. Joel Embiid is 2nd behind Harden...on a team with a true lead point in Ben Simmons. There’s no reason Davis shouldn’t be at 35-37% behind Harden.

ETA: I also didn’t say he didn’t operate down low. He’s done that a lot more this year from my perspective without really digging. I just said Gentry shouldn’t be using him on the perimeter late.
This post was edited on 1/27/19 at 6:17 pm
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 9:23 pm to
2 questions:

1) are you talking USG% or FGA? USG% takes into account FTA and TOV, not just FGA. per 100 possessions, they both take 26 fga, but Embiid gets slightly more FTA and turns it over twice as much.

2) when does too much lead to a drop in efficiency for Davis? is it worth it to feed him more if it means more TOs? to me, what Harden is doing is the anomaly, not the standard.

quote:

just said Gentry shouldn’t be using him on the perimeter late.



fair enough. tough to say what the play design is sometimes. also tough to know when players just ad lib- Davis likes to pick and pop a lot, when it's better if he would dive. but then he takes a hit every time he does that, so i get it
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12719 posts
Posted on 1/27/19 at 11:11 pm to
quote:

2) when does too much lead to a drop in efficiency for Davis? is it worth it to feed him more if it means more TOs? to me, what Harden is doing is the anomaly, not the standard.


I have no idea what the answer to this question is, but I do know one thing...with all the injuries to this season, I find it pretty stupid we don’t know the answer to that question.
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