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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 40% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
Posted on 2/24/21 at 8:02 am to Pelefraan 1
Posted on 2/24/21 at 8:02 am to Pelefraan 1
I mean I just made a whole thread exploring that question because I think we have all been making a lot of assumptions here without asking if they are good assumptions, as of today, it’s likely going to come down to New York or Chicago, and both have some fit and opportunity cost questions that suggest they very well might not be looking to go all in on Lonzo stock in FA.
LINK /
LINK /
This post was edited on 2/24/21 at 8:22 am
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Posted on 2/24/21 at 2:12 pm to Bronc
quote:If you honestly believe that, you are being disingenuous. His sample size is so very small and most of his time has been against backups. He has not yet shown to be a shooter or scorer, but you seem to ignore that because he drives the lane. I really like that part of his game, but he is far from proven at this point in his career.
Kira has barely played, is severely undersized weight wise, and scores the ball more efficiently and with less turnovers than Lonzo. That to me is frankly insane. That a 6’6 guard with a 6’9 wingspan is a worse scorer driving to the basket than 32 year old 6’0 Ish Smith and an undersized rookie.
This post was edited on 2/24/21 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 2/24/21 at 2:31 pm to NOSHAU
quote:
If you honestly believe that, you are being disingenuous. His sample size is so very small and most of his time has been against backups. He has not yet shown to be a shooter or scorer, but you seem to ignore that because he drives the lane. I really like that part of his game, but he is far from proven at this point in his career.
Well no shite. He's 19 games into his career.
What are you not wanting to believe? He provided you with actual stats to prove his point, and if you can't watch the games and determine that yourself with your own eyes, that Kira has much much much higher potential to be an efficient player that drives to the goal over Lonzo, then I don't know what to say.
This is literally the whole crux of the argument here, that Lonzo isn't good at driving to the goal, and more importantly he likely doesn't have much potential to be that much better. Of course he can get better, but his cieling for it is very low based on what we've seen from him the last 4 years. As i said, he can develop a floater, and when he does, it should make it much easier for him to decide between floater, pass, attack the rim when he does get into the paint. Right now when he gets into the paint, he is nervous and hoping someone gets open so he can pass it. i'm not sure how he works on being more patient and probing in the paint, but that's what would take him to the next level, and i'm not sure that's a skill set that you learn over time how to do when you've never even shown glimpses of it. You've already seen glimpses of it from Kira, so him improving on it isn't some far fetched expectation like it is with Lonzo.
Posted on 2/24/21 at 2:45 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
he likely doesn't have much potential to be that much better.
I don't agree with this anymore. I made a post earlier in the year basically saying I thought he was hopeless to ever improve because his drives just looked so bad. He didn't just miss shots near the basket, he usually wasn't in position to get a good shot up.
The past few weeks he's actually been getting to the basket and maneuvering into a decent position to score. While he's still missing layups and passing out when he should take the shot, I feel like he's giving himself a chance to improve now whereas before he had no chance. It's not guaranteed to improve, but I think the way he was playing before it was guaranteed to not improve. Now he has a chance and we need to see what he does with it.
This post was edited on 2/24/21 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:00 pm to TigerinATL
Funny how eye test, anecdotal evidence and small sample sizes are admissible in the Lonzo court in certain situations 
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:07 pm to GynoSandberg
funny how ignoring stats and providing zero analysis of your reasoning is all the proof you need to think you are right.
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:17 pm to TeddyPadillac
There is no right at the present time, only wrong
Speaking of stats
I’ll ask ya again
Name me a 3&D player with these qualifiers from the last two seasons
- At least 38% on 600 or more 3PA
- Averages at least 6.4 APG
- averages at least 5.5 RPG
- averages at least 1.4 SPG
- 23 y/o or younger
Should be a lot more run of the mill, limited “3&D” guys out there I imagine
Speaking of stats
I’ll ask ya again
Name me a 3&D player with these qualifiers from the last two seasons
- At least 38% on 600 or more 3PA
- Averages at least 6.4 APG
- averages at least 5.5 RPG
- averages at least 1.4 SPG
- 23 y/o or younger
Should be a lot more run of the mill, limited “3&D” guys out there I imagine
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:23 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:The takes on this board are mind-blowing some times. Yes, he is only 19 games into his career and to make a statement that he is already a more efficient scorer than anyone is ridiculous given his limited minutes and the players he has played against. I hope Kira becomes a star, but to make this comparison based on the little time he has played is disingenuous at best and just shows that some will do anything to push their agenda.
Well no shite. He's 19 games into his career.
What are you not wanting to believe? He provided you with actual stats to prove his point, and if you can't watch the games and determine that yourself with your own eyes, that Kira has much much much higher potential to be an efficient player that drives to the goal over Lonzo, then I don't know what to say.
This is literally the whole crux of the argument here, that Lonzo isn't good at driving to the goal, and more importantly he likely doesn't have much potential to be that much better. Of course he can get better, but his cieling for it is very low based on what we've seen from him the last 4 years. As i said, he can develop a floater, and when he does, it should make it much easier for him to decide between floater, pass, attack the rim when he does get into the paint. Right now when he gets into the paint, he is nervous and hoping someone gets open so he can pass it. i'm not sure how he works on being more patient and probing in the paint, but that's what would take him to the next level, and i'm not sure that's a skill set that you learn over time how to do when you've never even shown glimpses of it. You've already seen glimpses of it from Kira, so him improving on it isn't some far fetched expectation like it is with Lonzo.
Hell, a few weeks ago many were claiming we should trade Ball because NAW was our savior with some claiming he was clearly the better 3 point shooter. It is all about the unknown with many here.
This post was edited on 2/24/21 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:23 pm to NOSHAU
quote:
If you honestly believe that, you are being disingenuous. His sample size is so very small and most of his time has been against backups. He has not yet shown to be a shooter or scorer, but you seem to ignore that because he drives the lane. I really like that part of his game, but he is far from proven at this point in his career.
Lonzo is bottom of the league two years running in terms of drive scoring efficiency, getting out produced by almost all starting guards and a chunk of our team in turnovers and assists on drives. I’m not sure what you think this counter of yours and assertion that ignores the facts is meant to prove?
He’s not good, period.
Maybe one day he decides to take serious that part of his game, maybe it happens before the deadline and assuages some of my concern, but as of right now it is not only something that he is terrible at, it is something that we critically need out of our third star. And you’re right, Kira ain’t good, but to come into the league more efficient than a guy many of you want to pay 25 million? Yeah I’m not there with you yet.
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:26 pm to NOSHAU
quote:
The takes on this board are mind-blowing some times. Yes, he is only 19 games into his career and to make a statement that he is already a more efficient scorer than anyone is ridiculous given his limited minutes and the players he has played against. I hope Kira becomes a star, but to make this comparison based on the little time he has played is disingenuous at best and just shows that some will do anything to push their agenda.
Lonzo has 140 drives on the season, Kira has 78.
One it’s crazy that a guy with 25% of the minutes of your guard that touches the ball more than any player on your team has 60% of the amount of drive attempts, but 78 isn’t 13. Which was the sample size yesterday I cautioned against using.
If Kira started I’d probably expect him to be slightly worse than Lonzo efficiency wise, but that’s says more about Lonzo than anything
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:27 pm to Bronc
quote:Are you saying Kira is a more efficient scorer than Ball or are you just limiting it to one facet of his game - driving to the basket? Is that what should be the determining factor in determining a player a team should keep or how much they should pay?
Maybe one day he decides to take serious that part of his game, maybe it happens before the deadline and assuages some of my concern, but as of right now it is not only something that he is terrible at, it is something that we critically need out of our third star. And you’re right, Kira ain’t good, but to come into the league more efficient than a guy many of you want to pay 25 million? Yeah I’m not there with you yet.
This post was edited on 2/24/21 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:32 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
The past few weeks he's actually been getting to the basket and maneuvering into a decent position to score. While he's still missing layups and passing out when he should take the shot, I feel like he's giving himself a chance to improve now whereas before he had no chance. It's not guaranteed to improve, but I think the way he was playing before it was guaranteed to not improve. Now he has a chance and we need to see what he does with it.
I’m pretty sure I pointed this out at some point, but his drive scoring efficiency is actually down for the month of February and his tov% and ast% hasn’t really moved(.2%)....So maybe the slight uptick on drives per game over this period is deceiving you?
He’s doing it a bit more which is a step in the right direction, but he needs to learn to do it at least in a way that isn’t one of the most inefficient types of possessions we can have as a team.
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:32 pm to NOSHAU
quote:
Yes, he is only 19 games into his career and to make a statement that he is already a more efficient scorer than anyone is ridiculous given his limited minutes and the players he has played against.
Well it wasn't stated that he was a more efficient scorer, but that he is more efficient on drives to the goal, and it was presented was stat to back it up. And yes i completely understand the sample size. No one is crowning Kira, but it's clear to see that he has an ability to get by his defender, something Lonzo hasn't ever shown. That doesn't mean Kira will become an efficient driver for his career, and that doesn't mean Lonzo will never be an efficient driver. I explained how i think he can become better at that, without having to break his defender down of the dribble.
My agenda against Lonzo since the day we traded for him was the knock on him about not being a guy that got to the rim and finished. I literally said that i thought that was the most important thing he needed to improve on, not 3 point shooting. He has excelled at improving on 3 point shooting, and he's going to make a lot of money b/c of it, deservedly so.
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:35 pm to NOSHAU
quote:
Are you saying Kira is a more efficient scorer than Ball or are you just limiting it to one facet of his game - driving to the basket? Is that what should be the determining factor in determining a player a team should keep or how much they should pay?
good lord!!!!!
That is literally what i have been saying this entire time.
You want to give him $16-20M/yr, fine, he's earned that based on his 3 point shooting and defense.
but without this one facet of his game, something we have been talking about for 10 pages now, that's why he should not be getting $20M+, big emphasis on the +.
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:39 pm to NOSHAU
quote:
Are you saying Kira is a more efficient scorer than Ball or are you just limiting it to one facet of his game - driving to the basket? Is that what should be the determining factor in determining a player a team should keep or how much they should pay?
Well that was the conversation, drives, so yes, that is what I’m speaking to. Clearly any reading shows Lonzo is the better overall player right now, offensively and defensively.
And honestly, some of y’all really got to give it a rest with these damn straw men. It was this same nonsense yesterday.
No one is saying the only thing that matters is his drive efficiency, but his lack of any half court offensive creation(poor drive scorer and creator, less-optimal and too infrequent PnR ball handler compared to Bled, Ingram, and Zion, no real iso game at all), for himself or others, is a big problem if you are talking about having to end up giving him 25 million to keep someone like Chicago from signing him away.
And his lack of demonstrated improvement toward that, along with some lesser reservations on and off the court, general questions about his ball dominance in spite of those limitations and how our two stars project, is why I am not ready to crown the kid and claim he’s our third star on a contender or actually worth 20-25 million.
Like i said in my other thread, if the market is as it seems to actually be, overpaying might be a non-issue anyways.
This post was edited on 2/24/21 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:44 pm to Bronc
quote:
I’m pretty sure I pointed this out at some point, but his drive scoring efficiency is actually down for the month of February and his tov% and ast% hasn’t really moved(.2%)....So maybe the slight uptick on drives per game over this period is deceiving you?
I'm not saying he's scoring more effectively on drives, I'm saying he's actually trying to attack the basket now. Before he was looking pass first all the way and when that didn't materialize he'd throw up a prayer over defenders from bad angles.
He was setting himself up to fail. That's one of the first things Stan said about Lonzo when he got here, that Lonzo needed to look to score on drives because it's easier to switch from scoring mode to passing mode on a drive than going from passing to scoring.
I still think he has major confidence issues highlighted by a pass a week or so ago. Lonzo had beaten his man, had his arm stretched out with the ball about 4 feet away from an open layup...and he panicked and passed it out of bounds. In his mind a Josh Hart 3 pointer was a higher percentage shot than a Lonzo open layup.
But confidence issues and shot selection/decision making were problems he overcame while making his 3 point shot viable. So now that he's actually looking to score, I think he has a chance to improve like he did with his 3 point shot. When he was looking pass first he was never going to improve.
This post was edited on 2/24/21 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:55 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
In his mind a Josh Hart 3 pointer was a higher percentage shot than a Lonzo open layup.
I mean sadly he’s kind of right based on the analytics lol, but I get the point, and as I’ve said I hope you are right. And there are tea leaves in his play(and all the physical traits in the world if he’d just commit) that suggest the possibility for major improvement, and signs of him inching(slowly) toward it.
I’ve just maintained I don’t think it’s as simple as some might suggest(Lonzo really lucked out in the sense of coming to the Pels and having I think it’s fair to say, perhaps the most prolific shooting coach working in the game today, and I don’t know we have that same talent when it comes to dribble drive player development).
And that I’m not willing to go to the top of the market some are arguing in favor of based on a hope and prayer he finds these holes in his game sometime in the future, I still have PTSD playing that game with Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Omer Asik, and Solomon Hill. And if he doesn’t effectively demonstrate that by the deadline, or the end of this season, that to me is just not the right guy to be paying 20 million+ in my mind(which hopefully from my best attempt to read the market, might not be an issue anyways).
But you know, get that ast% on drives up, his PnR ball handler frequency and efficiency ticking up, his drive scoring efficiency in the mid 40’s in the next month or seasons end, don’t crater on his shooting like last year, and I would probably feel pretty comfortable based on positive trends matching most offers(assuming he and Klutch don’t make a stink)
This post was edited on 2/24/21 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 2/24/21 at 3:58 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
Name me a 3&D player with these qualifiers from the last two seasons
- At least 38% on 600 or more 3PA
- Averages at least 6.4 APG
- averages at least 5.5 RPG
- averages at least 1.4 SPG
- 23 y/o or younger
are those the only stats we are considering when we talk about how much we want to give him this offseason?
Is that supposed to convince me that we should pay him Jamal Murray money b/c he shoots better from 3 and has more assists and rebounds than him?
The only stat from there that matters is the 3 point stat for the last 2 years, and that is why he will get paid $15M+ easily.
His assists and rebounds are up in your stats b/c you included last year, when he average 7 assists and 6 rebounds.
Now he has Steven Adams to rebound the ball, so his numbers are down this year, and he is still an elite rebounding guard.
His assists numbers are down significantly this year, and so are his turnovers(a stat you didn't want to include), and you know what, his offensive rating has shot up considerably b/c of it. Our offense, as well his Lonzo's offensive rating, are better when he's not possessing the ball for long and is regulated to a mostly catch and shoot 3 point guy, b/c that is what makes him the most efficient offensively, not trying to get 7 assists a game while he turns it over 3 times.
Lonzo is not the same player he was last year, so lumping his stats together makes no sense, and you don't even need to do it to prove whatever point you're trying to make. His offensive rating as i said, has shot up this year as a result of Zion and Bi being the primary ball handlers instead of Lonzo.
As someone pointed out before, Nic Batum is a great comparison to Lonzo. His Portland deal was well worth his production. In todays' dollar, that's $21M/yr.
How do you compare those two players?
What kind of contract do you think I am saying he should get, b/c i think you think i am saying he should be getting $12M/yr, which i am not?
Posted on 2/24/21 at 4:05 pm to Bronc
I actually think Lonzo will continue to grow in this 3&D role. This is his first year in that role, so him struggling early should've been expected. Going forwards the ball will be in Ingram's and Zion's hands. So the fact that Lonzo can't drive won't be as big as Zion/Ingram grow as playmakers/ slashers. Also Lonzo's role is important.
Also you can't deny that when Lonzo plays well he does bring more attention to the franchise. It will come down to the money. If he comes at the right price we keep him, if he's expensive we may can work a sign and trade.
Also you can't deny that when Lonzo plays well he does bring more attention to the franchise. It will come down to the money. If he comes at the right price we keep him, if he's expensive we may can work a sign and trade.
Posted on 2/24/21 at 4:09 pm to TeddyPadillac
Yeah I feel like we are just sort of going in circles now with the quoting stats at people thing since we discussed the is at length yesterday.
It’s all good and well Lonzo gets those counting stats, but they come with a lot of empty calories and certain numbers that aren’t that valuable to us in the context he offers them. Straight up he’s not a guy we need or want moving forward to touch the ball more than any other player to get himself 6 assists a game. Both Ingram and Zion do better now and project to do better going forward. Kira as well.
A guy we can retain significantly cheaper can also rebound as well and defend as wel or better than Lonzo, and we have Fred Vinson to help his shot as well.
So when I dig past the surface of those numbers I’m not sure what I’m supposed to be so blown away by in terms of what he does for this team? At least in the context of paying him 20+ million
It’s all good and well Lonzo gets those counting stats, but they come with a lot of empty calories and certain numbers that aren’t that valuable to us in the context he offers them. Straight up he’s not a guy we need or want moving forward to touch the ball more than any other player to get himself 6 assists a game. Both Ingram and Zion do better now and project to do better going forward. Kira as well.
A guy we can retain significantly cheaper can also rebound as well and defend as wel or better than Lonzo, and we have Fred Vinson to help his shot as well.
So when I dig past the surface of those numbers I’m not sure what I’m supposed to be so blown away by in terms of what he does for this team? At least in the context of paying him 20+ million
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