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re: Jrue for the Bulls or Suns first pick?

Posted on 4/21/19 at 9:18 pm to
Posted by Vegas Buffet
The Sierra
Member since Feb 2019
169 posts
Posted on 4/21/19 at 9:18 pm to
quote:

The Knicks are making a hard play for players like Kyrie and Durant this offseason.

You going to make that play with a rookie or with a top 5 guy regardless of contract status?


That's not to say 100% a deal is made but bringing in AD significantly ramps up the chances that they grab two additional max contracts as opposed to a team like the Clippers doing so.


Can tell you for a fact that KD going to the Knicks is not dependent on AD at all. Chance the Clippers or Celts could jump in if something drastic happens, but I wouldn't bet on that. For their part, Clippers don't think they are getting him but will fight that to the end, of course.

And again, do the Knicks really trade Zion? They'd have 7 years of control on him, with the first 4 cost-controlled. And he would be a money making machine in NYC.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94843 posts
Posted on 4/21/19 at 9:29 pm to
"Not dependent on AD at all"?

Not 100%. BUT. Having one star already on board when free agency starts significantly raises your chances of getting more of them.

And if trading Zion means they get not only AD but also KD and Kyrie, becoming an immediate contender? You're goddamn right the Knicks do that. This is what Dolan's wanted since buying the team.
Posted by Dantheman504
N/A
Member since Jun 2013
3562 posts
Posted on 4/21/19 at 9:32 pm to
No one can answer you until we actually know anything. 1 thing I know for a fact is that the Knicks want to win NOW. I think that plan would work better if they put together vet superstars like KD and AD over pairing a superstar with Zion. They might not have a chance to win with Zion until he developes and that wouldn't help their plan of winning now. That's what you also are missing here. The Pels want a quick rebuild or atleast not a full rebuild, other teams want to win now and may value their picks slightly less because of that. Im not saying Zion or Ja would be valued less but because I don't know, I also cant say its not a possibility.
Posted by Vegas Buffet
The Sierra
Member since Feb 2019
169 posts
Posted on 4/21/19 at 9:42 pm to
quote:

Please tell me how we have the top 5 mvp caliber player that several teams are willing to unload for and we aren't dealing from a "position of strength". How Gayle and our team operated vs the media and lakers shows exactly that we are operating and ready to operate from a position of strength. And it is very possible Kyrie won't sign until AD. Same for KD and a few others. And yes the Knicks have 73% it isn't top 2... And almost every team has a higher chance it isn't top 2 what's your point? That's a dumb post.


This isn't that theoretical of an exercise. Of the other 29 teams there are at least 20 who have no hope of resigning AD in a year -- especially in the context of what they would have left after the trade. At least half of that 20, which is a generous number to begin with, don't even have the assets in the first place.

There are other teams, (GS, Houston) that might be able to resign AD, who just don't have anything to give up for him when you get down to it. There are other teams who could jump in, but are very unlikely to (Philly and Ben Simmons). Lurking in the background of all this is the fact that AD will almost certainly be an unrestricted free agent in a year, whom teams like the Clippers, or even the Lakers, can just save cap room for, rather than give up major assets. Also lurking in the background is a ticking clock. There is no way at all you can go into camp without a resigned AD, lest his trade value drop like a stone.

What the Pels are really hoping for this summer is a bidding war among a handful of teams that are already known. LAL, Boston, NYK. Totally possible that a dark horse will somehow emerge in what is a pretty dynamic landscape in this league.

But that is all a lot more tenuous than I think most here are grasping. As I said, if the Knicks pick comes in low, and/or Kyrie signs with NYK anyways, AD's trade market could crater fast. Add in the fact that LAL, AD's reps and even his father were actively sabotaging his trade market by slandering the Celts at the deadline and all but saying they had zero chance to reign him, and well... there's a LOT of very real factors working against your "position of strength" right now. Pretty sure I just named like 10 of them.

Personally, I don't think Boston is going to be able to resign him after having to give up too much to trade for him, but I still do it. It's hard to win a title in this league, and if you have a chance at a kill shot, you take it.

But on your side, shoot... if you end up with Tatum, Smart, and 3 FRP (including the Grizz pick), my only question is who is driving the getaway car?
Posted by Dantheman504
N/A
Member since Jun 2013
3562 posts
Posted on 4/21/19 at 9:50 pm to
I didn't know you had info on other FO's and on exactly who AD would and wouldn't sign for. Also you don't know if every team is worried about AD leaving after one year or what plans they may have to change that. And regardless AD's value won't change if a draft pick does. It just means the other assests we get shoould be better. How is that you are telling many other people that we are over valuing ADs trade value but are one of few who have said it.
Posted by Vegas Buffet
The Sierra
Member since Feb 2019
169 posts
Posted on 4/21/19 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

"Not dependent on AD at all"?

Not 100%. BUT. Having one star already on board when free agency starts significantly raises your chances of getting more of them.

And if trading Zion means they get not only AD but also KD and Kyrie, becoming an immediate contender? You're goddamn right the Knicks do that. This is what Dolan's wanted since buying the team.


Not speculating on KD. He's already a Knick unless Boston or the Clippers can make some major moves. Neither Boston nor the Clippers expect that, though. Celts also feel that Kyrie is staying, but you can't be 100% sure.

I have no insight to what the Knicks think about anything, other than to point out that trading Zion for AD is highly debatable on a number of levels. KD and Kyrie would have to really force the issue on that, IMO.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94843 posts
Posted on 4/21/19 at 9:59 pm to
Players like KD and Kyrie are on a win-now timeline. AD meshes with that. Zion likely takes a few years to really get it together even if he is a total prodigy.

Given that the Knicks haven't won a title since about 1971 and haven't sniffed the Finals since 1999, I see them mortgaging their future for a chance at a ring now. Doubly so considering the kinds of moves they have done under Dolan since he bought the team.
Posted by Dantheman504
N/A
Member since Jun 2013
3562 posts
Posted on 4/21/19 at 10:00 pm to
This is what is debatable.
Step1 AD + KD
Step2 Try to win a championship

Step1 Zion + KD
Step2 Develope Zion
Step3 Try to win a championship ( maybe after 1-2 years)

Scenario 1 puts you in a win now position starting next year.

Scenario 2 means you must develope a player, hope that player developes the way you want, pair him with KD, and hope you win a championship considering how he developes after atleast year 1.

So win now or maybe win a few years from now? Zion could be a beast but if a lare market can bring in sure shots like AD, it may be hard to pass that up for a possibility in the near future.
Posted by Vegas Buffet
The Sierra
Member since Feb 2019
169 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 12:02 am to
quote:

Players like KD and Kyrie are on a win-now timeline. AD meshes with that. Zion likely takes a few years to really get it together even if he is a total prodigy.

Given that the Knicks haven't won a title since about 1971 and haven't sniffed the Finals since 1999, I see them mortgaging their future for a chance at a ring now. Doubly so considering the kinds of moves they have done under Dolan since he bought the team.


Some logic there, but if it were just about basketball, would KD and Kyrie leave the Warriors and Cavs? I understand the window thing, but guys with Zion's talent and potential basically get traded never, ever, ever. And I will repeat, Zion would be a machine that prints money in NYC. And you get another $25m or so of cap with Zion over AD, and a team that is as good as anyone regardless.

Not saying they won't, but anyone acting like it is a foregone conclusion that the Knicks would even trade Zion for AD is absolutely out of their minds. There's a possible scenario where KD and Kyrie force the issue, but what I am saying is that this is not on KD's agenda at all from what I have heard, and while AD and Kyrie are fairly tight, Kyrie is a young player not on that same window (and Zion is also a fellow Dukie with AD and Kyrie).

In sum, I'd slow down with that one.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30083 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 12:21 am to
quote:

Some logic there, but if it were just about basketball, would KD and Kyrie leave the Warriors and Cavs? I understand the window thing, but guys with Zion's talent and potential basically get traded never, ever, ever. And I will repeat, Zion would be a machine that prints money in NYC. And you get another $25m or so of cap with Zion over AD, and a team that is as good as anyone regardless.



KD to be on "his own team", not following a 73-win GSW.

Kyrie was viewed as the lacky with LeBron who got minimal credit. Pairing with AD/KD is more of an "even basis". He also regrets playing with young guys if this season was any indication early-midseason

a trio of KD-AD-Kyrie that wins prints more money than KD-Zion that gets to the 2nd round, 100% guarantee.

The 25mil of cap space is going to be spent somewhere else as well.

quote:

Not saying they won't, but anyone acting like it is a foregone conclusion that the Knicks would even trade Zion for AD is absolutely out of their minds. There's a possible scenario where KD and Kyrie force the issue, but what I am saying is that this is not on KD's agenda at all from what I have heard, and while AD and Kyrie are fairly tight, Kyrie is a young player not on that same window (and Zion is also a fellow Dukie with AD and Kyrie).



KD and Kyrie have been mum all season about their free agency, but their best bet would be to get AD if the plan is for NY. Not wait on a rookie to possibly develop, especially one that has to play inside since he hasn't developed a consistent shot yet. Who also knows about defensively what he can handle. While AD can anchor the defense, does not require the ball in his hands, and can play anywhere offensively when needed.

Kyrie isn't in the same window? He's a year older than AD...

KD - 30
Kyrie - 27
AD - 26

And AD was Kentucky, not Dukie.
Posted by Vegas Buffet
The Sierra
Member since Feb 2019
169 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 1:05 am to
My bad on AD being a Dukie. Brain fart, lol.

Stand by the rest. I have fairly solid info on KD, and decent info on Kyrie, I guess. Both are SUPER WEIRD guys that are hard to fathom, though. Back when i was telling people that the Ws were KD frontrunners months ahead of time, and how confident they were in signing him, people gave me all sorts of logical reasons why that wouldn't or shouldn't be the case. They weren't wrong, until they were. Same people who told me that are saying he has already promised the Knicks, which is hardly news.

No info at all on how the Knicks would play their hand on AD, just know KD not that wrapped up in that. Celts hope to change his mind with an AD trade, but not hopeful on it.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94843 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 12:26 pm to
The rumor mill on Hoopshype (original source - Sporting News) indicates there are a lot of teams pissed that we haven’t put Jrue out there as trade bait yet, with the primary teams interested being Phoenix, Chicago, and Orlando.



I’m looking at the players on these teams and I’m not seeing a lot that looks interesting and that would be made available. Picks are a different matter but protections likely come into play for any post-2019 selections.
Posted by Relham10
Ridge
Member since Jan 2013
15578 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 1:21 pm to
Top 5? Yep anything below that no
Posted by ScaryClown
Member since Nov 2016
5847 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 2:29 pm to
I would do it just because the draft pick would be more in line with the teams age progression curve. It would have to be top 5 though.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 2:36 pm to
I don't know how you can set an arbitrary 'Top 5' designation when that is not where the tiers for this draft are set. Pick #2 and #3 are far more valuable in THIS draft than 4 or 5. And 4 and 5 are equally as valuable (or close to) as 6-9.

So either, you should say:

1 Wouldn't for any pick
2. Would for #1 or #2
3. Would for a top 3 pick
4. Would for a top 9 pick

But top 5 is a poor, arbitrary line to draw here
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94843 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 2:41 pm to
My question on the tiers is where they are in this draft.

Zion is clearly tier 1. Ja is either tier 1 or tier 2. Past that, no one is really sure what to make of this class.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 2:59 pm to
Zion is tier 1.
Ja tier 2.
RJ Barrett Tier 2.5, then there are like 3-7 guys in tier 3.
Tier 4 and 5 are massive.

The top 3 picks will be Zion, Ja, and Barrett. Barring a pre draft injury like Embiid, I would bet a lot of money on that. The team that gets pick 4 is going to have the first real decision to make in the draft and I could see different teams having different boards after 3, but all the teams will have the same top 3. Maybe 1 or 2 teams will have Barrett and Ja flipped, but they will be the top 3
Posted by iwyLSUiwy
I'm your huckleberry
Member since Apr 2008
34187 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

I’m not even going to pretend to think about this scenario because it’s nowhere close to being plausible. As good as Jrue has been, be isn’t worth anything close to a top 5 pick


"anything close"


Nobody is trading the one or two spot. So lets say 3-5 is the possible trades.

2012:
3. B. Beal
4. D. Waiters
5. T. Robinson

2013:
3. O. Porter
4. C. Zeller
5.A. Len

2014:
3. J. Embid
4. A. Gordon
5. D. Exum

2015:
3. J. Okafor
4. K. Porzingas
5. M. Hezonja

2016:
3. J. Brown
4. D. Bender
5. K. Dunn

2017:
3. J. Tatum
4. J. Jackson
5. D. Fox

2018:
3. L. Doncic
4. J. Jackson
5. T. Young

So in the past 7 years, there are about 5-7 guys that you would take over Jrue and its mainly that high bc of lasts years class.

And this is a weak class. You have no idea what you're talking about.
Posted by ThanosIsADemocrat
The Garden
Member since May 2018
9395 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

sign Marc Gasol


Pretty sure he has a player option that he’d be foolish to turn down, especially falling in to a great situation.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 4/22/19 at 4:26 pm to
Again, it's not Jrue vs the player. Jrue vs Culver is not close

But if you choose Culver, your 20 and 21 picks are gonna be better. You are gonna have more cap space to take on bad contracts for good assets. A trade is rarely just X for Y. You have to see it in it's totality. So, the argument could be made that even if you get an inferior player, you could end up setting your franchise up better by trading Jrue.

I think its all for naught, as this franchise won't do the full rebuild.
This post was edited on 4/22/19 at 4:44 pm
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