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Eric Gordon and the Kobe Assist
Posted on 3/21/13 at 8:22 am
Posted on 3/21/13 at 8:22 am
A new article from 247 where they analyzed every Gordon miss this season and concluded he should drive more and take jump shots less.
LINK /
Gordon misses off drives retained possession 47% of the time while misses off jumpers retained possession only 29% of the time.
I would imagine this principle would be important for Rivers to understand as he develops too, and is also why the Hornets really needs another guy that can get into the lane at will.
quote:
“Kobe Assists.” This occurs when someone draws extra defenders, but shoots anyway. He misses the shot, but because of the attention he drew, a teammate grabbed an easy rebound and scored.
...I divided each of his misses into two categories: ones derived from driving to the basket, and ones resulting from jumpers. Driving to the basket entailed any movement towards the hoop, not just shots at the rim.
LINK /
Gordon misses off drives retained possession 47% of the time while misses off jumpers retained possession only 29% of the time.
I would imagine this principle would be important for Rivers to understand as he develops too, and is also why the Hornets really needs another guy that can get into the lane at will.
5
Posted on 3/21/13 at 8:38 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Kobe Assists
Posted on 3/21/13 at 8:40 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Gordon misses off drives retained possession 47% of the time while misses off jumpers retained possession only 29% of the time.
This seems like it would be true for most players
I'd be interested in seeing the numbers on 15-20 guards. Seems like when you drive, you attract more of the D, giving your guys a better chance at a board. I could be totally wrong but this seems like it has a chance to be the norm for a lot of players.
Posted on 3/21/13 at 9:00 am to TigerinATL
Plus, the more he drives in the lane, the more the D has to respect that. Thus leaving some chances for some open jump shots.
Posted on 3/21/13 at 9:01 am to CQQ
quote:
I could be totally wrong but this seems like it has a chance to be the norm for a lot of players.
I think it would be the norm. The point of the article is Gordon should drive more and shoot less, not that Gordon is special. One of the numbers I didn't post from the articles is that Gordon has missed 137 jumpers vs. 101 drives. Flip those numbers and you get 7 more possessions retained this season, which on the surface doesn't seem like a lot, but as we saw last night against Boston, it could mean the difference between a win and a loss.
Posted on 3/21/13 at 9:08 am to TigerinATL
quote:
The point of the article is Gordon should drive more and shoot less, not that Gordon is special.
True, as not every guard can drive to the basket as well as he can when he's right. Hopefully those #'s will change next year when he feels like he has his explosiveness completely back.
Posted on 3/21/13 at 9:10 am to CQQ
Because a missed shot is the best chance a teammate. Has to get the ball from Kobe.
Posted on 3/21/13 at 9:12 am to TigerinATL
quote:
I would imagine this principle would be important for Rivers to understand as he develops too, and is also why the Hornets really needs another guy that can get into the lane at will.
I don't necessarily think it's about getting to the basket as much as HOW you're attacking the basket. Vasquez gets to the cup and draws help, but he attacks in a kind of post-up/drive hybrid. He's not going unimpeded to the rack like Rivers and Gordon blowing past their man, which is where the back side post defender is leaving his man to stop the drive.
Gordon also uses his strength to almost bull rush defenders and leave them completely off balance and unable to jump for rebounds.
Posted on 3/21/13 at 9:15 am to CQQ
quote:
This seems like it would be true for most players
I'd be interested in seeing the numbers on 15-20 guards. Seems like when you drive, you attract more of the D, giving your guys a better chance at a board. I could be totally wrong but this seems like it has a chance to be the norm for a lot of players.
Not everyone has the first step necessary to make it work. Also, a make is a much better outcome than a 49% chance at a rebound, so the driver needs to hit at a decent clip to make it work. Austin really needs to work on finishing.
Posted on 3/21/13 at 9:17 am to Eman5805
quote:
Because a missed shot is the best chance a teammate. Has to get the ball from Kobe.
It seems to have worked out for him so far in his career.
Posted on 3/21/13 at 9:21 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Gordon misses off drives retained possession 47% of the time
That seems high.
...This is a pretty good example of the not so obvious impact players can have on games (Things that don't show up in the box score/basic stats).
Also, Lopez, Davis, and Aminu average 2.6, 2.5, and 1.7 offensive rebounds per game, respectively.
This post was edited on 3/21/13 at 9:27 am
Posted on 3/21/13 at 12:37 pm to drake20
I agree with the idea that it may very well be the norm, This was my main ding on the post (good post). ATL's point is right... norm or not, Gordon can do better for himself and the team by doing X, at least a little more; the analysis gets dicey if you go whole hog into driving.
It's intensive to get the data, so 15-20 guards (a fair wish), fewer is actually plausible. I think I'd like to bracket him with other kinds of guards in terms of this analysis, taking into account Jester's comment, for example.
Got names?
Also, that term came from Grantland, I believe.
It's intensive to get the data, so 15-20 guards (a fair wish), fewer is actually plausible. I think I'd like to bracket him with other kinds of guards in terms of this analysis, taking into account Jester's comment, for example.
Got names?
Also, that term came from Grantland, I believe.
Posted on 3/21/13 at 12:41 pm to 42
quote:
42
wyd?
Posted on 3/21/13 at 12:51 pm to HeadyBrosevelt
Btpwtlaaf.
Posted on 4/4/13 at 12:02 pm to CQQ
quote:
I'd be interested in seeing the numbers on 15-20 guards
He just added a comparison of Vasquez and his numbers are similar
Player Drive/Jumper
Gordon 47%/30%
Vasquez 45%/24%
quote:
The similarities in Vasquez’s data shows us that the high Repo rate from Gordon driving to the hoop may not be as impressive as we originally thought. Instead, it appears to further support the notion that driving to the hoop exerts more pressure on a defense and leads to a better rate of second chances. This still illustrates how important it is for the Hornets guards to get into the lane and force the defense to contest shots.
LINK /
Posted on 4/4/13 at 1:36 pm to TigerinATL
i didnt read the article, but does it at least mention that perhaps defenses are preventing him from the lane? i'm sure they know the guy is quick and can drive pretty easily. i'd have to imagine defenses are forcing him to take contested jumpers.
Posted on 4/4/13 at 1:42 pm to quail man
quote:
The video showed a big difference that my data cannot fully explain. Although the Hornets had similar Repo rates on shots by Gordon and Vasquez, there was a noticeable difference in how it was happening. To assist in my analysis, I gathered some data from nbawowy.com
Gordon: takes 30 percent of his shots from 0-3 feet; 15 percent of his shots from 4-9 feet
Vasquez: takes 25 percent of his shots from 0-3 feet; 30 percent of his shots from 4-9 feet
This data illustrates what I saw in the video. Vasquez takes many more shots from the range just outside of the basket. His size allows him to get off his floater versus almost any guard who defends him. Vasquez is using his floater in the 4-9 foot range, and teams have caught onto this, so opposing bigs are coming out to contest him. As these shots are being taken a few feet further than Gordon’s, Hornet bigs have more space around the rim to rebound. Conversely, the Hornets are keeping possession off of Gordon’s misses because he’s getting to the basket more quickly and the defense doesn’t have as much time to react.
Surprisingly, Gordon’s missed jumpers result in a better reposession rate than Vasquez’s. Vasquez has his faults, but he isn’t particularly prone to taking ”bad” jumpers- stepbacks, contested jumpers, etc. In fact, a good percentage of his missed jumpers are resulting from getting the ball late in the shot clock. This is certainly related to his and other guards’ inabilities to get good offense initiated earlier, but it’s much harder to fault a bad shot that is taken to beat the shot clock.
Posted on 4/4/13 at 1:59 pm to TigerinATL
iiiiintredasting.
Posted on 4/4/13 at 3:01 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
Vasquez has his faults, but he isn’t particularly prone to taking ”bad” jumpers- stepbacks, contested jumpers, etc. In fact, a good percentage of his missed jumpers are resulting from getting the ball late in the shot clock.
I harped on this earlier in the year. Greivis is being overburdened. He is not a great PG, but he is very serviceable. The problem is that he is being asked to play the role of a great PG at times because we have so few initiators on the offensive end.
Again, I expect his assists to go down a bit next year with less usage, but his shooting should improve.
Posted on 4/4/13 at 3:17 pm to Jester
quote:
He is not a great PG, but he is very serviceable
The problem is the type of SF that could make him viable aren't very available. You'd need a SF that can defend multiple positions so Vasquez can guard the worst perimeter player and he'd need to be able to create his own offense so Vasquez can play off ball more. If you don't have that then come playoff time I'm afraid he could end up looking like Okafor did vs. the Lakers.
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