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LosLobos111
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re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25




ShamelessPel
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
10914 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
Did I miss something are they doing the lotto to #4 instead of #3 as well?


ShamelessPel
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
10914 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
I’m scared of moving the wizards out of tier 1 and jinxing it.


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JohnnyKilroy
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
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re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
Yes. Lotto it top 4 now. Pretty shite that the worst team in the league has like a 45% chance of getting the fifth pick.


jackwoods4
New Orleans Saints Fan
Nashville
Member since Sep 2013
20527 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
quote:

Yes. Lotto it top 4 now. Pretty shite that the worst team in the league has like a 45% chance of getting the fifth pick.



Yeah, the people who made this decision are so dumb. Imagine being the worst team in the league and having about a 50% chance to pick 5th.


ShamelessPel
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
10914 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
Never mind. I see my logical flaw.
This post was edited on 3/14 at 10:53 am


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touchdownjeebus
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2010
11131 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
So I guess Washington and perhaps Memphis are now within striking distance. I hate cheering for losses, but...


BetOnIt
Member since Feb 2019
125 posts
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re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
Losing the next three would be so huge and I think it's possible. Home against Phoenix should be a win, especially when you consider they will be playing their third game in 4 days, on a back to back.

But we won't have AD or Jrue. Mavs stink but they are solid at home. We will have a good idea what is likely after Monday


NOFOX
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
6971 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
I think we lose to POR and PHX, but beat DAL. The Mavs are in super tank mode and may shut Luka down. Luckily Lebron and KAT are not going that route and the Grizzlies, Magic, and Hornets want to win while the Wizards have a really easy schedule.

Assuming Jrue gets shut down for the rest of the season, I think we end up with a worse record than MEM, WAS, CHA, ORL, and MIN. Lakers will be interesting, but I think the media will hold Lebron's feet to the fire just enough for us to edge them out.

Potential wins:

NOP (30-40) - PHX 2x, DAL, ORL, ATL, LAL, CHA

MEM (28-41) - DAL 2x, WAS, MIN, PHX, , ORL, GSW (resting)

WAS (29-39) - CHI 2X, CHA, MEM, LAL, PHX, NYK

CHA (30-37) - WAS, MIN, LAL, NOP, CLE, ORL

ORL (31-38) - ATL 2x, CLE, MEM, NOP, NYK, CHA

LAL (31-36) - NYK, WAS, CHA, NOP

MIN (32-36) - CHA, MEM, DAL


ETA - Guillory just reported as expected the tank is on with Gentry sounding like he is not expecting Jrue/Moore back this season.
This post was edited on 3/14 at 12:35 pm


BetOnIt
Member since Feb 2019
125 posts
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re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
I watched Dallas vs SA the other night and they were really trying to win that game. They just couldn't finish. I think we could get 6th if we lose out but that's nearly impossible.

The two games where Dallas play Memphis in a home and home are gonna be super interesting


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ShamelessPel
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
10914 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
PHX is playing good ball. ATL is playing decent ball. We should lose those games if Jrue isn’t playing.

Can someone explain the math on why a 4.5% team has a 20+% chance at top 4 but a 14% only has a 52% chance? I know probabilities are weird.


NOFOX
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
6971 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25


These are the odds. In the simulation we were 9th with 4.5% odds of landing #1.
This post was edited on 3/14 at 2:07 pm


ShamelessPel
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
10914 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
That's the part that doesn't make sense to me. You can't just add #1-#4 up. That's their chances at each pick, not their chance at a top 4 pick. If they don't get #1, their chance at #2 is higher than the original 14% because there's less balls to lose to.

There's so many variables, but their math seems very wrong to me to just add it up and say "top 4 chance"

The chance at #2 is lower than their chance at #1 because they can win #1 and be disqualified from 2-4 etc. But if they don't get #1, their chance at #2 goes up, not down.
This post was edited on 3/14 at 3:29 pm


FMtTXtiger
Member since Oct 2018
144 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
that 6 spot is my goal.


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BetOnIt
Member since Feb 2019
125 posts
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re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
There math is correct. The easiest way to think of this is with 100 lotto balls. You have 14. Your chance at the 1st pick is 14%

In the 14 realities you got the pick, you had no shot at 2-4. But in any other reality you had, on average a 14 in 91 shot at the #2 pick - which is about 15.4%

So, multiply 0x14 (0) and then 15.4 times 86. Then divide that number by 100 - its about 13.2%. And on and on.

Don't overthink it. The numbers are right. Of course the odds of getting #2 go up if you don't get #1, but these are the odds from the beginning, before any ball is selected.
This post was edited on 3/14 at 4:00 pm


ShamelessPel
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
10914 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
Then how do these teams with 4.5% go up to over 20% (more than 4x the odds at #1) while the other teams go down (less than 4x the odds at #1)? I could be and probably am wrong but the logic seems flawed. It feels like those are the %s they get said pick in a vacuum. Not the %s they get one of the 4 picks.


Ryan5231
Member since Dec 2007
83 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
Not sure if this is what you're asking about, but each number in the cell is the % chance that team gets that selection.

So for each team, if you add up all their percentages for each slot they can land at, it should equal 100%. Therefore, the chances of getting top 4 is just adding their chances at 1, 2, 3 and 4.


ShamelessPel
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
10914 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
I understand that is the % chance they get that pick. But that #2 for instance is the chance they pick second, not the chance of picking second if they miss on #1, etc. The chance of picking #2 if they were to miss on #1 is higher than 14% because whoever won the #1 pick would have their % removed from the odds at #2. Same for #3, the teams that hit 1 and 2 would have both their %s removed, so that would be even higher than the chance to pick 3rd if they missed at 1 and 2. I don’t know what the correct calculation is exactly, but just adding the 4 together of what their odds are isn’t correct. It’s a moot point though and really not worth debating heavily. I was just curious if someone who understood probabilities could expound.


BetOnIt
Member since Feb 2019
125 posts
 Online 

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
Adding the 4 together is correct before any ball is drawn. Sure, the odds change after each slot is filled, but I don't see how that matters at all. You are WAY over thinking this


ShamelessPel
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
10914 posts

re: 18-19 Tank Watch Edition: Last Updated 3/25
I’m not WAY overthinking this. Those odds are for one specific pick, not one of 4 specific picks. There’s a difference. Its a question for someone versed in math. I don’t think they’re correct. Again, it makes no sense that one team goes up from their 4x value while others go down.

It’s not a big deal, as it doesn’t matter. The balls land where the balls land.

I only bring t up because I was going to put the odds of a top 4 pick (well top 3 technically) when I made the thread. I just couldn’t find a site where the odds made sense.


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