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Why does the NBA have a Draft Lottery?
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:31 am
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:31 am
One thing that seems striking to me when comparing the NBA and the NFL is how much parity the NFL seems to have compared to the NBA. Obviously there are teams like the Patriots who seemingly dominate every year but it still seems like there are more teams in the NFL every year who can suddenly become good. One years the Panthers might be great, another year the Jaguars, then the Rams, the Titans. Smaller market teams just seem to have much more of an opportunity compete in the NFL than in the NBA. Whereas in the NBA it always seems like 5 or 6 teams are consistently the only real title contenders.
One reason I believe this relative parity exists in the NFL is because the draft directly rewards worse teams. If you have the worst record in the league you WILL get the top draft choice. No ping pong ball with a 25% chance of winning to decide your fate. I have often heard that the draft lottery exists in the NBA because it discourages teams from tanking. Teams supposedly wont tank if doing so does not guarantee the highest draft position anyway. However, I still think tanking exists in the NBA but the result is bad teams still dont get much of a benefit from it.
This to me creates perpetual cellar dweller teams such as the Charlotte Hornets, the NY Knicks, the Orlando Magic, etc who seemingly play for nothing every season. Why doesnt the NBA eschew the draft lottery in favor of an NFL style draft which directly favors greater competition across the league?
EDIT: Seems like most people are sticking with the "Draft Lottery as an anti-tanking mechanism" theory. I still think NBA teams tank anyway though. Maybe the tanking would be slightly more egregious but we still see teams like the 2016 76ers win 10 games in an 82 game season so I dont see how it could get much worse than that.
One reason I believe this relative parity exists in the NFL is because the draft directly rewards worse teams. If you have the worst record in the league you WILL get the top draft choice. No ping pong ball with a 25% chance of winning to decide your fate. I have often heard that the draft lottery exists in the NBA because it discourages teams from tanking. Teams supposedly wont tank if doing so does not guarantee the highest draft position anyway. However, I still think tanking exists in the NBA but the result is bad teams still dont get much of a benefit from it.
This to me creates perpetual cellar dweller teams such as the Charlotte Hornets, the NY Knicks, the Orlando Magic, etc who seemingly play for nothing every season. Why doesnt the NBA eschew the draft lottery in favor of an NFL style draft which directly favors greater competition across the league?
EDIT: Seems like most people are sticking with the "Draft Lottery as an anti-tanking mechanism" theory. I still think NBA teams tank anyway though. Maybe the tanking would be slightly more egregious but we still see teams like the 2016 76ers win 10 games in an 82 game season so I dont see how it could get much worse than that.
This post was edited on 2/3/20 at 11:03 am
14
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:34 am to PhillyFan1994
The intent is to try to stop teams from straight up tanking. Just like this past draft with a generational talent in Zion. The Pels were able to get him and not have the worst record in the league. 7 teams had the same or a worse record than the Pels in 2019
The reason small market teams have it harder in the NBA is because one free agent player can make a much bigger difference on an NBA roster than one player will in the NFL
The reason small market teams have it harder in the NBA is because one free agent player can make a much bigger difference on an NBA roster than one player will in the NFL
This post was edited on 2/3/20 at 8:36 am
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:36 am to PhillyFan1994
Simply put, out of all the leagues, one player can make the biggest impact in the NBA.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:37 am to mylsuhat
quote:
The Pels were able to get him and not have the worst record in the league. 7 teams had the same or a worse record than the Pels in 2019
The Pels tanked more than several teams with worse records last season
This post was edited on 2/3/20 at 8:38 am
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:44 am to PhillyFan1994
quote:look at all the high picks Cleveland had and wasted.
One reason I believe this relative parity exists in the NFL is because the draft directly rewards worse teams. If you have the worst record in the league you WILL get the top draft choice
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:45 am to PhillyFan1994
One player can make a massive difference for a team as compared to the NFL.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:47 am to PhillyFan1994
If you think tanking is bad now just imagine how bad it would be without the lottery
The NBA doesn’t have much parity because basketball as a sport naturally won’t and stars flock to the big market teams in free agency which doesn’t happen in football
The NBA doesn’t have much parity because basketball as a sport naturally won’t and stars flock to the big market teams in free agency which doesn’t happen in football
This post was edited on 2/3/20 at 8:49 am
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:48 am to PhillyFan1994
One player can have a bigger impact in the NBA compared to the NFL, MLB or NHL.
The lottery keeps teams from trying to intentionally lose so that they can draft that generational player in the draft to quickly turn around their team. (Think Shaq, LeBron, Zion, etc.)
If that was the case in the NFL, the Browns would have an All World team by now.
The lottery keeps teams from trying to intentionally lose so that they can draft that generational player in the draft to quickly turn around their team. (Think Shaq, LeBron, Zion, etc.)
If that was the case in the NFL, the Browns would have an All World team by now.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:50 am to PhillyFan1994
The Rockets tanked and got Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon in consecutive drafts.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 8:52 am to PhillyFan1994
quote:
This to me creates perpetual cellar dweller teams such as the Charlotte Hornets, the NY Knicks, the Orlando Magic, etc who seemingly play for nothing every season. Why doesnt the NBA eschew the draft lottery in favor of an NFL style draft which directly favors greater competitiin across the league?
The Knicks could draft 1 every year for 5 years and still would suck.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 10:22 am to PhillyFan1994
All 14 lotto teams should have an equal chance to eliminate tanking. It was an awesome format in the 90s which led to bottom of the lotto Magic winning again.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 10:31 am to PhillyFan1994
eliminate the lottery and in a year like 1996/2003 we would have had open field tanking starting opening night of the season
no it wouldnt be a problem every year...but certain years the league would be unwatchable
no it wouldnt be a problem every year...but certain years the league would be unwatchable
Posted on 2/3/20 at 10:41 am to PhillyFan1994
1 player has a much stronger effect on the strength of a team for basketball than football. And it’s much easier to predict success for basketball prospects than it is for football. The rate of injury and variation of style/system is vastly different
That’s why parity is so high in the NFL vs the NBA.
The NFL equivalent of the NBA draft system would be if the worst NFL team got the first 3 picks in the draft and then also got an extra 3rd rounder
That’s why parity is so high in the NFL vs the NBA.
The NFL equivalent of the NBA draft system would be if the worst NFL team got the first 3 picks in the draft and then also got an extra 3rd rounder
This post was edited on 2/3/20 at 10:42 am
Posted on 2/3/20 at 10:54 am to PhillyFan1994
One individual player makes more of a difference in the NBA
They also have more games so tanking is more of a process and disruption
They also have more games so tanking is more of a process and disruption
Posted on 2/3/20 at 10:55 am to PhillyFan1994
1 player can change the game for tankers. NFL, 1 player doesn't mean as much.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 11:30 am to PhillyFan1994
quote:If you think tanking is bad now, it'll be 10x more blatant if the draft order was automatically set by the final standings.
EDIT: Seems like most people are sticking with the "Draft Lottery as an anti-tanking mechanism" theory. I still think NBA teams tank anyway though. Maybe the tanking would be slightly more egregious but we still see teams like the 2016 76ers win 10 games in an 82 game season so I dont see how it could get much worse than that.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 11:34 am to Tiger Prawn
quote:
If you think tanking is bad now, it'll be 10x more blatant if the draft order was automatically set by the final standings.
I guess I just don't see how it could be any worse than what we have gotten the last 10 years. The NBA regular season is largely a joke to begin with.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 11:38 am to JabarkusRussell
The “equal chances” lottery was the first few which saw the Knicks get Ewing.
The Magic’s win in 1993 was actually one where they had only one combination to win and pulled it off, but it was something like 40-1 as opposed to the astronomical odds for the team in that place now.
The league intentionally changed the lottery and the expansion process after that since Orlando went from expansion team to two lottery wins in about 5 years and became an instant contender. As a result, the Grizzlies, Raptors, and Bobcats got screwed when they would have gotten high picks.
The Magic’s win in 1993 was actually one where they had only one combination to win and pulled it off, but it was something like 40-1 as opposed to the astronomical odds for the team in that place now.
The league intentionally changed the lottery and the expansion process after that since Orlando went from expansion team to two lottery wins in about 5 years and became an instant contender. As a result, the Grizzlies, Raptors, and Bobcats got screwed when they would have gotten high picks.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 11:40 am to hiltacular
quote:
I guess I just don't see how it could be any worse than what we have gotten the last 10 years. The NBA regular season is largely a joke to begin with.
Just wait if there was a draft with a guy like LeBron or Zion. If the pot of gold is someone like that, half the league will look like the Process Sixers.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 11:43 am to Rep520
Pretty much.
The current system gives the bottom three or four an equal chance of around 15-20%.
The pre-lottery odds would be a 50-50 coin flip between the worst records in each division.
People may tank now but they would tank like a motherfricker for a 50-50 shot at a perceived future HOF player.
The current system gives the bottom three or four an equal chance of around 15-20%.
The pre-lottery odds would be a 50-50 coin flip between the worst records in each division.
People may tank now but they would tank like a motherfricker for a 50-50 shot at a perceived future HOF player.
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